What to watch in Tuesday's primaries
Tuesday is the last big primary day of the 2016 campaign, with six states voting: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota (just the Democrats).
By CBS News' estimates, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has already clinched the Democratic nomination -- on Monday she reached the 2,383 delegates necessary to secure her party's nod for the general election.
Though Tuesday's results will have next to no impact on the parties' respective primaries, California is the main state to watch because it's the biggest delegate prize on both sides. If Bernie Sanders were to pull out a surprise victory there--or even just get very close--it could give him and his supporters the justification they need to continue their fight all the way to the Democratic convention in July.
There won't be exit polling data for any of the states voting Tuesday, which limits the kind of information we'll have about the kind of coalitions each candidate built in California. But with that in mind, here's CBS News' guide for three things to watch as the results roll in:
1) HOW MANY DELEGATES WILL HILLARY CLINTON NET?
CBS News confirmed Monday night that Clinton has, through additional commitments from Democratic delegates, secured the 2,383 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination. Though she's crossed the threshold, her campaign says she's not quite finished with primary season.
"This is an important milestone, but there are six states that are voting Tuesday, with millions of people heading to the polls, and Hillary Clinton is working to earn every vote," campaign manager Robby Mook said in a statement. "We look forward to Tuesday night, when Hillary Clinton will clinch not only a win in the popular vote, but also the majority of pledged delegates."
California polls have shown the race between Clinton and Sanders is very close -- and it's the biggest delegate prize on the map. In New Jersey, however, Clinton has a strong lead, and polls close at 8 p.m., which means she could add another state to her tally early in the evening.
2) HOW DOES SANDERS REACT?
Sanders on Monday evening did not acknowledge AP or network reports noting Clinton had reached the 2,283 delegates needed to ensure the nomination was hers. Instead, he stayed on message, telling voters in his final San Francisco rally Monday that he would go to the Democratic convention if he wins California.
Whether Clinton's presumptive nomination has a depressive effect on voting remains to be seen. CBS News' Kylie Atwood spoke to several Sanders voters at his San Francisco rally Monday, and many told her that it made no difference to them, since they had sent their ballots in by mail.
The reaction of Sanders voters this week could be a big indicator of whether Clinton will get to focus her full attention on presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump--or if she will have to contend with further trouble from Sanders and his supporters, who say the nomination will only be decided at the convention, when superdelegates officially cast their votes.
It's a fact that Clinton has received more votes, more delegates and won more states than Sanders. However, his campaign has argued that the race can only end on the convention floor. Still, in a statement after the AP and other outlets said Clinton had clinched, a Sanders spokesman made it clear the campaign is not yet backing down.
"It is unfortunate that the media, in a rush to judgment, are ignoring the Democratic National Committee's clear statement that it is wrong to count the votes of superdelegates before they actually vote at the convention this summer," the statement read. "Secretary Clinton does not have and will not have the requisite number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination. She will be dependent on superdelegates who do not vote until July 25 and who can change their minds between now and then."
Sanders is holding a primary night event in Santa Monica, Calif., starting at 1 a.m. ET, two hours after the polls close there. Especially given the potentially slow counting process in California--its polls don't close until 11 p.m. ET, and mail-in ballots will still be coming in for days--the way Sanders reacts Tuesday night will be very telling.
3) WHAT'S TRUMP'S FINAL NUMBER?
Trump has already secured the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the Republican nomination: he did that two weeks ago after winning over some of North Dakota's uncommitted delegates.
But after all the hand-wringing earlier in the GOP primary season over who had a path to stop Trump and how he could possibly be kept below 1,237, Tuesday night will show just how far ahead of that marker he ultimately was able to finish.
Heading into Tuesday's primary, Trump has 1,238 delegates; on the Republican side, 303 delegates are at stake in five states.
