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Weekly Wrap: After Irene, Jobs Report

Investors took an earthquake, impending hurricane and a Bernanke speech in stride, snapping a four-week losing streak for stocks. Was the performance a dead cat bounce or the start of a more sustainable rally? The answer may lie in the deluge of data that awaits investors this week, including the all-important August jobs report, due on Friday.

Meanwhile, Bernanke said the Fed is not yet ready to administer new medicine to the ailing patient, known as the US economy. Investors were reacted negatively at first, but then were satisfied that if the economy slows further, the central bank will figure out something at its September meeting.

  • DJIA: 11,284, up 4.3% on week, down 2.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: 1177, up 1.3% on week, down 6.4% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 2479, up 5.9% on week, down 6.5% YTD
  • October Crude Oil: $85.37, up 3.6% on week
  • December Gold: $1797.30, down 3% on the week (breaks 7-week winning streak)

AAA National Average Price for Gallon of Regular Gas: $3.60
Total bank failures for 2011 = 68 (0 new bank failures over weekend)

FACTOIDS OF THE WEEK: Hurricane Irene Edition

  • An estimated 1.9 million properties are at risk for flood-related damage in 12 coastal major metro areas affected by Irene (Source: Core Logic)
  • 48% of at-risk properties are not in a FEMA-designated hazard flood zone (Source: Core Logic)
  • Much of the damage typically caused by hurricanes isn't covered by traditional homeowners' insurance policies
  • Floods - defined by insurers as any water that rises from the ground (tidal waves and destruction from rapid snow melts) aren't covered by traditional policies.
  • Basic homeowners' policies typically pay for damage caused by winds - including broken windows, torn roofs and any interior damage from water falling into the home. Likewise, if strong winds blow tree limbs or entire trees onto a home, garage or shed.
  • If a tree falls onto a car, many comprehensive auto policies will cover the damage.
  • Damage estimates range from 4B-10B, but as high as $35B if Irene were to pass directly over Manhattan with 100 mile-per-hour winds.
  • Damage from the 1985's Gloria, which made landfall on Long Island, NY as a Category 1 storm with 85-mile-per-hour winds, was $2.5B (in 2011 dollars)
  • Major metro areas affected by Irene, including New York City, Philadelphia, Boston, Baltimore and Washington, account for 16% of national economic output and 14% of total employment
IN THE WEEK AHEAD: Reports on personal income and spending and consumer confidence will occupy the early part of the week, as investors gear up for the August jobs report on Friday. It's expected that the economy added 65,000 non-farm jobs and the unemployment remained at 9.1 percent.

Mon 8/29:
8:30 Personal Income and Spending

10:00 Pending Home Sales Index


Tues 8/30:
9:00 Case Shiller Home Price Index

10:00 Consumer Confidence

2:00 FOMC Minutes

Weds 8/31:
7:30 Challenger Job Cuts

8:15 ADP Employment Report

9:45 Chicago PMI

10:00 Factory Orders

Thurs 9/1:
8:30 Weekly Claims

8:30 Productivity and Costs

10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index

10:00 Construction Spending

Fri 9/2:
8:30 Employment Report

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