Week Ahead: Retail Sales in Focus

Will they or won't they? We're talking about consumers and their spending, as retailers head into the all-important holiday season. This week, retail sales for September comes on the heels of a report from the International Council of Shopping Centers, which said September chain-store sales rose by 5.5 percent.

That good news was offset by the largest drop in consumer credit in 11 months, which may indicate that Americans are feeling cautious amid an uncertain global outlook. Still analysts are expecting sales to rise in September and some see holiday sales rising by as much as 5 percent from the 2010 period, led by apparel.

Earnings season begins this week, with third quarter profits expected to rise 12 percent. Yes, companies are still making money, even though it seems like everyone is in a sour mood when it comes to the economy and the markets.

Speaking of markets let me be the first to wish you a Happy Anniversary! On October 9, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled at 14,164, the highest-ever close and the S&P 500 also reached a historic closing level of 1565. Before you get too bummed out about the Dow being over 21 percent below that all-time high (and the S&P 500 being down 26 percent), remember that the index is up nearly 70 percent from its bear market closing low of 6547 reached on March 9, 2009 and the S&P 500 is also up 70 percent from its bear market closing low of 676 on that same day. Feel better?

• DJIA: 11,103, up 1.7% on week, down 4.1% YTD
• S&P 500: 1155, up 2.1% on week, down 8.1% YTD
• NASDAQ: 2479, up 2.6% on week, down 6.5% YTD
• November Crude Oil: $82.98, up 4.8% on week
• December Gold: $ 1635.80, up 0.9% on the week

Total bank failures for 2011 = 76 (2 new bank failures over weekend)

FACTOIDS OF THE WEEK: September Employment Edition (For more, see "September Jobs Improve as Crisis Persists")

• Jobs created: +103,000 (Aug revised from +85,000 to +127,000, July revised from 0 to +57,000)
• Private sector jobs created: +137,000 (including 45,000 striking Verizon workers who returned to work)
• Unemployment Rate: 9.1 percent (unchanged)
• Under-Employment Rate (marginally-attached, part-time): 16.5 percent (from 16.2 percent)
• Total Number of Unemployed: 14 million (unchanged)
• Average duration of unemployment: 40.5 weeks (new record high)
• Number of years to return to pre-recession employment (assuming current level of job creation): 4 (late 2014 or early 2015)
• Total Jobs Lost since beginning of recession in 2007: 6.6 million
• Long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks and over): 6.2 million (from 6 million in August, representing 44.6 percent of the total unemployed)
• Total non-farm jobs added through September: 1,074,000 (119K/mo)
• Total non-farm private sector jobs added through September: 1,341,000 (149K/mo)
• Average Hourly Earnings: up $0.4 to $23.12 (Over the past year, earnings are up 1.9 percent)
• Government: -34K (eleventh consecutive month of job losses. Over 535,000 total government jobs lost since peak in September 2008)

Mon 10/10: Columbus Day US Markets OPEN, banks closed

Tues 10/11:
Alcoa
2:00 FOMC Minutes

Weds 10/12:

Thurs 10/13:
8:30 Weekly Jobless Claims

8:30 International Trade

2:00 Treasury Budget

Fri 10/14:
8:30 Retail Sales

8:30 Import/Export Prices

9:55 Michigan Consumer Sentiment

10:00 Business Inventories

G-20 finance ministers meeting begins in Paris

Photo by Flickr User AntwerpenR, CC 2.0

Jill Schlesinger

Jill Schlesinger, CFP® is the Emmy-nominated business analyst for CBS News. She covers the economy, markets, investing and anything else with a dollar sign on TV, radio (including her nationally syndicated radio show), the web and her blog, "Jill on Money." Prior to her second career at CBS, Jill spent 14 years as the co-owner and chief investment officer for an independent investment advisory firm. She began her career as a self-employed options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York, following her graduation from Brown University.

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