U.S. to Present Afghan Drawdown Plans to NATO
The Obama administration has developed a plan that would end the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan by 2014, after transferring responsibility for security to the Afghans in certain regions over the next 18 to 24 months, officials told The New York Times Sunday.
The plan is to be discussed at this week's NATO summit in Lisbon.
Writing in the Times Monday, Peter Baker and Rod Nordland describe it as the most concrete plan yet by the Obama White House for transitioning control of security in Afghanistan.
One official said the transfer strategy closely resembles that of the Iraq war, where a troop surge by President Bush was followed by handovers of security region by region, and a subsequent troop drawdown.
"Iraq is a pretty decent blueprint for how to transition in Afghanistan," an anonymous U.S. official told the Times, adding that the key to success would be "constructing an Afghan force that is truly capable of taking the lead."
One thing the plan will not be, according to officials, is a dictate from Washington, but rather a process predicated by conditions on the local level. "This will be ground-up," one official told The Times.
Assessments are being made as to which areas could be passed on to the control of Afghan security forces; the administration may identify them late this year or early next year, according to the Times, with more areas added through 2012.
This week's NATO meeting comes on the heels of a brush-up between U.S. military commanders and the Afghan government.
This weekend Afghan President Hamid Karzai, in an interview with The Washington Post, said the insurgency in his country could be exacerbated by the continued presence of U.S. troops, particularly Special Operations Forces engaged in night raids and capture-and-kill missions — a key component of Gen. David Petraeus' counterinsurgency strategy.
The coalition says such raids in southern Afghanistan have killed or captured hundreds of Taliban commanders and are seen as vital to ultimate success.
Karzai said the long-term presence of foreign soldiers would only worsen the war.
"The time has come to reduce the presence of, you know, boots in Afghanistan," Karzai told the Post.
The response by Gen. Petraeus, NATO's military commander in Afghanistan, was "astonishment and disappointment" in Karzai's comments — and he reportedly made "hypothetical" references to discontinuing U.S. operations because of Karzai's remarks, in a meeting with an Afghan official Sunday.
U.S. forces in Afghanistan have tripled in the past year, and Gen. Petraeus has expressed confidence that progress is being made. But it is still too early to say whether the counterinsurgency will work, or when Afghan police and Army units will be deemed capable of handling security themselves.
On "Meet the Press" Sunday, White House Special Adviser David Axelrod said the beginning of the drawdown has "a disciplining effect" on Afghanistan.
"It's important to let the Afghans know that they have to pick up the pace in terms of training up the military, training up their police, being ready to accept responsibility," he said.