U.S. mulls expanding military ties with Japan despite Trump's criticism of the alliance
Tokyo — President Trump in early March criticized what he characterized as a one-sided security alliance between the U.S. and Japan. Officials in Japan have heard these comments from Mr. Trump before, and so far, they've continued shaping the country's national security plans based on the assurance of backing from the United States.
Government officials admit they really have no other choice.
"There is no Plan B for Japan other than the U.S.," Takuya Akiyama, Principal Deputy Director of the North American Affairs Bureau at the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told CBS News. "Treaty wise and also as a physical presence, no other country can substitute the U.S. It is unthinkable."
The U.S. may be pulling back from Europe under President Trump, but despite his remarks about Japan, U.S. military cooperation with Tokyo has appeared stable, and may even expand as the White House ramps up its standoff with Asia's increasingly assertive superpower, China.
China's threat to its neighbors
Japanese officials may have breathed a sigh of relief after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's visit to the White House in February. The Trump administration reaffirmed its commitment to Japan's defense, including amid Tokyo's dispute with Beijing over ownership of the Senkaku islands.
It is one of many land ownership disputes between China and its neighbors over islands in the South China Sea — virtually all of which Beijing claims as its territory. The White House has repeatedly condemned Chinese aggression and militarization in the South China Sea, and U.S. warships and aircraft routinely carry out "freedom of navigation" exercises in the area — often drawing sharp rebukes from Beijing.
Advisers to the Japanese prime minister spent the months after the U.S. election preparing him for the meeting with Mr. Trump. They focused on using clear and concise language to convey the benefits of the security alliance to the U.S., and the increase Japan has made in its own defense spending and military procurement from America, according to officials at the Japanese foreign ministry.
China has been rapidly bolstering its military capabilities, including its nuclear program, in recent years, according to U.S. officials. Last year, China announced a 7.2% increase in its defense budget, which was already the world's second-highest, behind only the United States.
In February, Taiwan condemned China and deployed its own forces in response as the Chinese military held "shooting training" drills in the Taiwan Strait.
"From an American perspective, it's clear that if Taiwan falls, and if Japan falls, that our alliances in the Indo-Pacific are over," Kenneth Weinstein, Japan Chair at the Hudson Institute think tank, told CBS News. "China will exercise extraordinary military sway — will be able to close down global shipping such as they see it, will be able to throttle access to the South China Sea and elsewhere."
There have already been tense encounters between Japanese and Chinese naval vessels around the Senkaku islands, a group of uninhabited islands claimed by both Beijing and Tokyo. According to data from Japan's coast guard, Chinese government vessels entered the maritime zone around the islands, which China calls the Diaoyus, on 355 of the 366 days of 2024 — the highest number of intrusions reported by Japan since China started operating around the islands in 2008.
The Chinese vessels operating around the islands have increased not only in number, but in armament, carrying more and larger weapons as they circle the disputed territories, according to officials at the foreign and defense ministries.
While Japanese analysts don't believe a Chinese military invasion of the Senkaku islands is imminent, they say there's a risk that an accident or incident involving fishing or other non-military vessels in the area could lead to a rapid military escalation.
"The Chinese Communist Party believes in power. They have started to act because they believe they now have the power to do so," China expert Akio Takahara, a professor at the Tokyo Woman's Christian University, told CBS News. "We want the U.S. to increase their presence in this region, because the Chinese are certainly going to enhance their presence in the region."
Major boost to U.S.-Japan defense cooperation coming?
Japan has revamped its approach to defense in recent years, including by committing to spend 2% of its GDP on defense by 2027. Japan announced a major policy shift in 2022, abandoning the country's post-World War II, exclusively defense posture with a decision to acquire counterstrike capabilities.
The Trump administration has seemingly approved of the changes, and it has not asked Japan for even greater increases in defense spending as some Japanese officials feared it might.
While Mr. Trump complained specifically this month about Japan's hypothetical preparedness to meet its mutual defense obligation to the U.S. under Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, Japanese officials have tried to focus more on Article 6, under which Japan provides bases and facilities for U.S. forces. And that aspect of the relationship could be set to expand.
The U.S. and Japan have been in discussions since before Mr. Trump came back to the White House about the possible establishment of a Joint Force Headquarters in Japan. If it happens, it would upgrade the role of the U.S. forces in Japan to a command headquarters with operational authority. The dialogue over the upgrade was announced under the Biden administration, after being requested by the Japanese.
In the event of a regional security crisis — such as a Chinese attack on Taiwan or a disputed South China Sea island — having a Joint Force Headquarters in Japan would give the U.S. military the capacity to respond with commands from the region, rather than waiting for orders to come from the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to meet with his Japanese counterpart in late March to discuss efforts to bolster U.S. forces in the Pacific region.
Concern over Ukraine
The dramatic vacillations by the Trump administration in its stance on Ukraine have also raised concern in Japan. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Japan has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Japanese officials worry about the precedent that would be set if the U.S. is seen to abandon a partner nation in the face of an invasion by a more powerful neighbor.
"In light of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, countries' perceptions on security have drastically changed around the world," then-Japanese Prime minister Fumio Kishida said at a regional security summit In June 2022, several months into Russia's invasion. "I myself have a strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow."
The Japanese fear that if the U.S. and the world at large are prepared to accept a change in Europe's borders forced by Russian aggression, they could also decline to intervene in the case of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
"The Chinese will be encouraged that, perhaps if Xi Jinping did something similar, Trump will be as kind to Xi Jinping as he's been to Putin," professor Takahara told CBS News. "That kind of message will be received in Beijing."
Officials in Tokyo are trying to remain focused on the long-term bilateral relationship with Washington, looking beyond the Trump administration, but they know China is watching closely as the relationship develops, especially given the volatile nature of the Trump administration's foreign policy.
"We don't know what Mr. Trump will be saying tomorrow and doing the day after. So, at least the Ishiba visit, the first round, went okay. We were happy about that," Takahara said. "But what about the next round? When is it coming? No one knows."
