Tuesday Market Note: The Week Ahead
Stocks started the new quarter the same way the last one ended -- with losses. Disappointing economic reports pushed indexes lower all week, culminating in Friday's pre-holiday loss.
For those of you keeping track, the Dow fell for a seventh consecutive session, the longest losing streak since October 2008, which was (ahem) at the height of the financial crisis.
The jobs report was grim, but the expectations were so low that the consensus was "it could've been worse!"
The U.S. economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, the first monthly loss this year. The government laid off 225,000 census temps, while the private sector added 83,000 workers (of which of 20,500 were temporary positions).
The private sector has added 593,000 jobs so far this year, but there are still 7.9 million fewer private-sector jobs than there were in December 2007. The unemployment rate fell from 9.7 percent to 9.5 percent, as 652,000 people gave up and stopped looking for work.
DJIA: 9686, down 4.5 percent on week, down 7.1 percent YTD (-7.3 percent over past 2 weeks; largest weekly point and percent drop since the week ended 5/7)
S&P 500: 1022, down 5 percent on week, down 7.4 percent YTD (-8.5 percent over past 2 weeks)
NASDAQ: 2091, down 5.9 percent on week, down 7.8 percent YTD (-9.4 percent over past 2 weeks; lowest close since 11/4/09)
August Crude Oil: $72.14, down 8.52 percent on week (biggest weekly/% decline since week ending 5/7)
August Gold: $1,211.80 down 3.85 percent on week (worst week since week ending 5/21)
This morning, the mood has improved. Asian and European markets traded higher and U.S. stock futures are indicating a positive opening.
In the Week Ahead:
It will be a quiet week on the economic calendar, as investors are likely looking past this week to next week, when earnings season starts. Today's reading of the ISM Service Sector Index is expected to increase slightly; tomorrow's report from the MBA on Weekly Mortgage Applications will help determine whether multi-decade low mortgage rates have helped activity; and Thursday's report on Chain Store Sales will be an important gauge of consumer spending.
