The Seeds Of A Championship

The final AP men's basketball poll of the season was released Monday, and for the second straight year Duke enters the NCAA tournament as the No. 1 team in the land.

No. 1 - a nice honor, but it's just a number, right?

Maybe, maybe not.

Since 1979, when the current seeding process was first used, only three teams ranked No. 1 in the AP's final poll went on the win the tournament (North Carolina 1982, Duke 1992 and UCLA 1995). Conversely, two unranked teams have won the title (Villanova 1985, Kansas 1988).

More encouraging for the Blue Devils is their No. 1 seeding in the East Region.

Ten No. 1 seeds have won the championship in the same 21-year period, including seven of the last 10.

For the sixth time since 1979, two teams from the same conference have received No. 1 seeds (Arizona and Stanford of the Pac-10). Only once in the previous five instances did one of those No. 1 seeds go on to win the title. North Carolina did it in 1982 when Fred Brown's errant pass sealed the Tar Heels' win over Georgetown. Virginia was the ACC's other No. 1 seed that season.

Looking at other seeding facts from past tournaments (starting with 1979); expect at least one No. 1 to advance to the Final Four. At least one top seed has done so in every year except 1980.

Don't expect a No. 16 seed to gain instant Cinderella status by upsetting a No. 1, it has never happened. No. 16 seeds are 0-for-60 since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

AP

Can Utah State make some noise as the South's No. 12 seed?

You have to go all the way down to No. 6 to find the next seeding position that has a winning record overall in 2nd round games.

As good as the 12th seeds are in the second round, they're dismal in the round of 16 (0-10).

So it's good news, bad news for Butler, Utah State, St. Bonaventure and Indiana State.

Actually, don't expect much from any of the double-digit seeds when it gets down to the nitty-gritty. Only one has advanced to the Final Four. That was an LSU team that lost to eventual champion Louisville in a National Semifinal in 1986.

Perhaps in part because they often face and eliminate each other in the second round, No. 4 and No. 5 seeds have not been very well represented in the Final Four. There is only one title between the two seeds (Arizona 1997 as a No. 4 seed). In fact, a No. 5 seed has never played in the championship game.

Looking for a surprise run from a higher seed?

AP

A.J. Guyton (25) leads No. 6 seed Indiana into East Region play.

Keeping with that theme, its easy to make a case for one or more of this year's No. 6 seeds to make a strong showing.

Indiana is the East's No. 6 seed. Coach Bob Knight has led the Hoosiers to three titles in the past and he has recently-named 1st team All-American guard A.J. Guyton leading this year's team.

Miami, the No. 6 seed in the South, wrapped up the schedule playing some of their best basketball.

The No. 6 seed getting the most buzz has been UCLA. Like the Hurricanes, the Bruins finished the season with a flourish. They've got JaRon Rush back and some newfound confidence. Watch out in the Midwest.

Purdue is the West's No. 6 seed. The Boilermakers are the kind of team that will leave their mark - win or lose.

It must be noted that the selection committee has done a very good job judging the talent in the 64-team field and seeding that talent accordingly in recent years.

Since 1993, only one team that made it to the Final Four was seeded higher than No. 4 (No. 5 Mississippi State in 1996).

That bodes well for Michigan State as well as teams like Iowa State, St. John's, Temple, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Maryland.

Produced by John Esterbrook