The Scottish battle for independence
Is the United Kingdom on the verge of DIS-uniting? In just four days, the people of Scotland will be making that decision at the polls. Our Cover Story is reported by Mark Phillips:
The piper on Princes Street in Edinburgh is an institution. But there's more than Gaelic nostalgia coming out of those pipes these days . . . there's fire.
This could be the soundtrack of the revolution.
Scotland will vote this week on whether to leave the United Kingdom, to become an independent country . . . whether its 5.3 million people will turn their backs on the more than 50 million people south of the border in England (not to mention the Welsh and Northern Irish) and go it alone.
It would close a chapter in history that has lasted more than 300 years since the two countries voluntarily joined together.
It's a decision that would take the United Kingdom --- like its flag, assembled from the St. Georges cross of England, the Scottish St. Andrews Saltire, and the St. Patrick's cross of Ireland --- and disassemble it . . . removing Scotland, and leaving something strange and different.
The "Yes" sticker on the piper's collection can shows there's no mystery about which way he is voting. But there's a big mystery as to which way the big vote will go.
For most of this campaign, the public opinion polls have predicted an easy victory for those who want to stay part of the United Kingdom. Not any more. Now it's too close to call, and what was a dream for a minority has now become a real possibility.
It's certainly been Alex Salmond's dream for his entire political life. "This is our time, our moment," he said. "Let's seize it with both hands."
Salmond is the First Minister in Scotland's Parliament -- the local legislature set up 15 years ago, with powers in areas like education and health care.
But limited powers were never what Salmond wanted.
"This is an example of a country which has been progressing on a road to full self-government for a hundred years," Salmond said. "And not once in that entire century has anybody lost a life arguing for or against Scottish independence. Nobody's even had a nose bleed. What a celebration of peaceful consensual democratic change, which I think should be celebrated, not just by people in the United States of America, but people across this planet."
The American reference isn't an accident. The campaign may be peaceful and democratic, but the idea of breaking up the United Kingdom at a time of international uncertainty is not being celebrated in Washington, or too many other places.
It's a decision for Scotland, President Obama said in Brussels in June, but he added, "We obviously have a deep interest in making sure that one of the closest allies that we will ever have remains a strong, robust, united and effective partner."
Salmond told Phillips, "Now I have to say that I was told by a very senior source in the American administration, in the words, and I quote him exactly, 'It was the least we could do to a request from Downing Street.'"
"But he was pretty clear, he said he preferred a 'united' United Kingdom," said Phillips.
"No, I am not disputing that," said Salmond.
There's plenty else that IS disputed, though.
George Robertson, a former British Defense Minister and former Secretary General of NATO, said, "We move into very uncharted and dangerous waters if we go down this route."
And there's one word that illustrates what he's talking about: Nukes.
Britain's Trident fleet -- its nuclear deterrent -- is based in Scotland, and Alex Salmond's separatists say they'll throw it out. The new Scotland will be a nuclear-free zone.
"We're one of the three nuclear powers in the West," said Robertson, "and definitely compromising it has a significant effect. And I think that's why President Obama felt obliged to come out and say something in the current debate.
"So, [the nationalists] might by the very virtue of becoming independent, disarm one of the key countries within NATO, and yet they at the same time expect to become full members of the Alliance."
"You think that's a contradiction?" asked Phillips.
"There's a complete contradiction between saying that you want to join NATO, a nuclear alliance, and yet you're an anti-nuclear party with an anti-nuclear policy, which you want to actually build into a written constitution," replied Robertson.
The potential break-up of this 300-year-old marriage is rightly being compared to a divorce; it may start amicably, but can always turn nasty. They are already fighting over the record collection and who gets to keep the kids.
For "record collection," read North Sea Oil. An independent Scotland would claim the revenue from the undersea bonanza that underwrites the Scottish economy. But the "No" side says the revenue is being exaggerated to make an independent future look more rosy.
As for the "kids," think money. The separatists say they will continue to use the British Pound. The rest of Britain says, forget it.
The economic uncertainty has already given Scotland's financial industry the jitters. Several big banks have said they might move to England; it's just scare-mongering, the Scottish separatists say. Whatever happens, other regions of the U.K. are saying if Scotland gets more self-rule, we want more, too.
This is a centuries-old battle, going back to the mythical figures and ancient grievances given a modern Hollywood make-over in Mel Gibson's 1990s movie, "Braveheart."
Brian Cox was an actor in the fight of the Scots then. He may live in Brooklyn, but he's come home to act in the fight of the Scots now.
Phillips asked, "Is it worth the risk that they would be subjected to, to take this stab in the dark?"
"I think it is," said Cox. "It's an act of faith. Any time you put your cross, when you go into the polling booth and you put your cross on that piece of paper, it's an act of faith."
Or, an act of folly.
This week Scotland will choose.
For more info:
- Yes Scotland - Campaign website
- bettertogether.net - Campaign website
- Alex Salmond MSP, Scottish First Minister
- George Robertson, The Cohen Group