The Pressure Grows On Saddam

With time running out to avoid a military confrontation, the perception that the Bush administration is locked into war mode with Iraq could be a good thing because it serves to bring pressure on Saddam that his days in power may be numbered.

Most of Iraq's neighbors have, until recently, not played a very active role in the effort to dissuade Washington's perceived preference to solve things militarily. But now that all can see the ongoing military buildup as evidence that Mr. Bush is serious, Iraq's "neighbors," who fear instability resulting from Saddam's downfall, have swung into high gear, realizing there's not a whole lot of time to head off a military confrontation.

Turkey's new Prime Minister, Abdullah Gul, has visited neighboring capitals, holding out the prospect that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Iran and Turkey, along with Egypt, can make a last ditch plea to Saddam Hussein to abide by U.N. Resolution 1441 and disarm -- thus sparing the region conflict.

There are also reports from TIME magazine and other sources that the Saudis have made private overtures to either persuade Saddam to step aside and go into exile or, failing that, to persuade senior Iraqi military elements to topple Saddam.

As Iraqi generals see U.S. forces moving ever closer to the start of a military campaign, the reasoning goes, they just might be more inclined to get rid of their leader.

Edward Walker, a retired American diplomat who served in the region and also as Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, says there is a more practical reason why the military might act now: "…the Republican Guard would say 'it's either him or us and we'd rather it be us.'"

Neither, Walker, who now heads the Middle East Institute, nor anyone else thinks the chances of a coup being successful is high. But he says "now, at the last minute, people may see a last chance to save their own skins."

Meantime, the Turkish Prime Minister is following up his recent tour by hosting a summit next week of regional leaders to collectively and formally pressure Saddam to disarm. This effort could serve another, more practical purpose as well for the region's political leaders, all of whom face pressures at home not to help the U.S.

If Saddam ultimately rejects regional pleas, at least these Arab leaders will be able to tell their publics that they tried every way possible to find a peaceful solution. Then, at the end of the day, if they decide to help the Bush administration, by allowing American troops to be based on their territory, for example, politicians from Ankara to Riyadh to Amman will be able to claim Saddam Hussein wouldn't listen to their pleas.

So the calendar now becomes a weapon as it increases the pressure on Baghdad.

State Department officials say, "we believe a persuasive case will be there by the end of the month that Iraq is not cooperating (with U N inspectors)." No one who has studied Saddam Hussein says he's the kind of leader who might choose exile. And Iraq's military leaders have had more than 20 years to try a coup and have never been successful. Thus, war is still the most likely outcome and Saddam Hussein knows it better than anyone.

By Charles M. Wolfson