The Millennial President
Presidential elections are won by candidates who match the mood of the nation using sound and effective campaign mechanics. Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were successful because they capitalized on the volatile mood of their times.
In 1980, for example, Reagan reassured wary voters by offering them tough-love economic and foreign policies. Similarly, Clinton's 1992 It's the Economy Stupid theme resonated with an American electorate nervous about its financial future.
As in previous years, candidates in 2000 - and their campaign machines - will need to monitor and manage the mood and convince voters of their ability to solve the nation's top issues. In terms of political mechanics, candidates for 2000 will face tight primary races filled with wealthy and well-known political figures.
Using targeted message strategies, they must also reach beyond their political bases to appeal to a wide range of voters from several geographic and demographic segments in the general election. Finally, as the millennium approaches, presidential candidates in 2000 will need to define their leadership in today's global economy.
Changing campaign finance restrictions and election dates will make it more difficult for many candidates to win their party's nomination in the upcoming primary season. The shortening of the primary season - California has permanently moved its primary from June to March and other states, like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, are also considering earlier primary dates - especially worries presidential campaign managers.
Many have predicted that the shorter schedule combined with stricter spending limits will only allow well-known candidates, like Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush, or independently wealth candidates, like Steve Forbes, to win either party's nomination.
Shoring up support from traditional party voters will also be a challenge. The popularity of Ross Perot in 1992 illustrated the opportunity for an outsider to win support among a growing portion of the electorate who considers themselves Independent voters.
Both Republicans and Democrats are having difficulty creating cohesive party unity. Moral conservatives are fighting economic conservatives to gain power in the Republican Party. Meanwhile, "New Democrats" like Clinton have alienated liberal Democrats by championing the murky middle.
After the midterm elections, both parties will need to come to terms with their traditional bases, so they can enter the presidential election cycle with a strong foundation of support. This will allow them to concentrate on influencing independent swing voters who have become more important in the last several election cycles.
Furthermore, winning a presidential election means appealing to a wide variety of voters in urban and rural locations. Because of the electoral college system, candidates cannot rely on winning the popular vote to win the presidency.
Instead, thy must capture several of the big states (those with over 20 electoral votes) and a majority of the smaller states. To do so, candidates need to devise a message structure that communicates with a variety of demographic groups at once.
As the nation has become "recultured" so that various ethnic, racial and cultural groups retain at least part of their original heritage, candidates will need to tailor their messages to ensure that every group feels their needs are being met.
As we have seen in recent elections with the gender gap and backlash of Latino voters, alienating any of these groups can be very harmful to a campaign.
Finally, especially with millennium approaching, presidential candidates will need to demonstrate their ability to lead in the global economy of the 21st century. Not only will the millennium be the pinnacle of symbolic transitions in modern history, but it also comes at a time when the United States has changed dramatically in a short period of time.
Without a doubt, during the second half of the 20th century, the U.S. has emerged as the world's super power. This is a fundamental departure from the last two turn-of-the-century election cycles. In 1800, America was a fledgling democracy, and in 1900, the country was on the verge of rapid industrialization and immigration.
At both of these times, Americans were looking inward and were optimistic about building a better nation. During the 2000 election cycle, our national issues have changed as the U.S. has settled into its role as the world's leader of democratic nations. In 2000, voters will be searching for a leader who will maintain the country's global economic and military status.
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