CBS News projects Abbott and O'Rourke win Texas primaries and will face off in November
The 2022 primary season for this year's midterm elections officially launched Tuesday in Texas, where voters will cast ballots in several statewide races and all 38 congressional districts. Polls closed throughout the state at 9 p.m. ET
CBS News projects that Governor Greg Abbott will avoid a runoff and secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination. CBS News also projects Democrat Beto O'Rourke will win the Democratic nomination and face Abbott in November. And in the Republican Lieutenant Governor race, CBS News projects that Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick will win his primary.
Despite facing credible primary challengers, Abbott instead frequently focused on O'Rourke rather than attacking his GOP opponents. Abbott's campaign spent about $11.4 million during the primary, according to AdImpact, and his campaign reported having about $50 million cash on hand as of February 19.
O'Rourke is hoping to revive some of the enthusiasm from his failed 2018 Senate campaign, when he narrowly lost to GOP Senator Ted Cruz. O'Rourke used the momentum from that campaign to launch a presidential bid, but dropped out of the race in November 2019 before any votes were cast.
Abbott's campaign has attacked O'Rourke over some of the positions that he took during that primary, including his support for a mandatory assault weapon buyback program. O'Rourke softened that position in a February interview with KLTV, telling the station that he's "not interested in taking anything from anyone."
O'Rourke spent much of the primary campaign talking about the massive problems with Texas' power grid during a 2021 winter storm. He also told supporters on Tuesday night that he wants to improve public education, expand Medicaid and legalize marijuana in Texas.
"We've got to get past the incompetence, the corruption and the cruelty of Greg Abbott," O'Rourke said. "The people of Texas are sick of what we have and they want a change."
In his victory speech, Abbott said he is "running to keep Texas on the right course."
"Tonight Republicans sent a message they want to keep Texas the land of opportunity and prosperity for absolutely everybody, the prosperity that we have delivered over the past eight years," Abbott said.
CBS News projects that Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is advancing to a runoff election. The Associated Press projects that George P. Bush will face him in the runoff.
Incumbent Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar and progressive Jessica Cisneros are heading to a runoff in late May in Texas' 28th District, after neither candidate cleared the 50% mark in their highly contentious primary race on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press.
Cuellar, who has represented the district since 2005, recently had his home raided by the FBI in January, as part of an investigation related to Azerbaijan and several U.S. businessmen.
Cuellar led the pack with 48.5% of the vote, with Cisneros capturing 46.8%. Tannya Benavides, a progressive educator and first time candidate, got about 4.7% of the vote. Cuellar's base of support in Laredo, as well as strong showing in the district's rural counties, put him in the lead early Wednesday morning. Cisneros was able to keep Cuellar under 50% due to her turnout in Bexar County and San Antonio, as well as Guadalupe and Atascosa counties.
Texas allowed early voting until February 25, and 1,651,483 people opted to use it; more than 1 million Republicans and about 628,000 Democrats voted before primary day. Republican turnout was up slightly, compared to 2018, while Democratic early voting turnout remained the same. A majority of voters chose to cast their ballot in person — 88% of Democrats and 95% of Republicans.
Candidates must win at least 50% of the vote to win a primary outright. If no candidate wins 50%, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on May 24.
New elections law in force
The primaries presented the first major test for the state's new elections law. The hotly contested, sweeping elections bill known as SB1 was passed by Texas Republicans last year. Ahead of the primary voting, the law caused some confusion among voters applying for and returning mail ballots. Voters now must provide either a driver's license, state ID or Social Security number, and it has to match what's on their voter registration file. That file can be updated online, but many voters have encountered problems in filling out that information when returning their ballots.
As of Monday, Harris County, home to Houston, reported that 29% of the 37,268 mail ballots received were flagged for rejection because voters did not fill out ID information correctly.
Travis County, home to Austin, found that about 12% of the 7,000 mail ballots received were flagged for rejection, mostly due to missing ID information.
In Williamson County, north of Austin, 690 of the 3,067 ballots returned were flagged for issues. As of Monday, 250 of those ballots had been corrected, according to the county.
Voting by mail is down, compared to the last midterm primary elections in the state. About 7.5% of voters in Texas' 15 largest counties voted by mail as of February 25. Four years ago, 14.3% of voters in the largest counties cast mail ballots by the end of early voting.
Congressional primaries
Democrats
The Democratic primary in Texas' 28th District was the blockbuster House race to watch on Tuesday, and because no candidate reached the 50% threshold, incumbent Cuellar now faces a runoff against Cisneros.
This race was the first test of progressive challengers in elections this cycle, and can tell us a bit about what Democratic voters want in historically moderate districts like this. Cisneros came within 2,700 votes of beating Cuellar in her 2020 run, and argues her name identification and changes to the district through redistricting boost her chances. Progressive figures including Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are supporting and have campaigned for Cisneros while House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland is backing Cuellar.
Republicans
For Republicans, the crowded primary in the open 8th District has shown splits of support among the party. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has backed Morgan Luttrell, a former Navy SEAL, while Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia has backed Christian Collins, a far right activist.
In Texas' 3rd District, incumbent Republican Van Taylor advances to a primary runoff election in Texas' 3rd Congressional District. He had a slate of GOP challengers who highlighted his vote for the January 6 committee.
The Associated Press projected Congressman Dan Crenshaw won the Republican nomination for the seat he holds in Texas' 2nd Congressional District. He faced primary challengers farther to his right who highlighted his refusal to support any of the baseless claims that the 2020 election was "stolen" from former President Trump.
Trump endorsements
Trump endorsed all but five incumbent Republicans who are seeking reelection: Crenshaw, Taylor, Pete Sessions, Chip Roy and Tony Gonzales. Overall, he endorsed 36 candidates in Texas in federal, statewide and local races.
Redistricting
Texas Republicans took nearly all competitive House seats off the map during redistricting. Twelve seats were considered competitive in the old map, while only one (Texas' 15th District) is competitive in the new map. This means that Texas' congressional delegation will mostly be settled after Tuesday's elections, if not formally, short of any primary runoffs in May.
Governor Greg Abbott survives primary challenge, CBS News projects
Going into primary day, Abbott was expected to surpass the 50% mark and avoid a runoff in his bid for a third term, but he was among the many Republican governors facing primary challenges this year. Conservative former state Senator Don Huffines and former Congressman and Texas GOP chair Allen West were Abbott's two most notable challengers, running to his right. The two candidates tapped into the anger that some Texas conservatives have with Abbott over his handling of COVID, criticizing his early mask requirement at the start of the pandemic and his decision not to ban COVID-19 vaccine requirements or shut down the southern border completely.
Despite the challenges, and pressure from some conservatives not to do so, Trump endorsed Abbott.
Attorney General Ken Paxton advances to runoff
CBS News projects that Paxton is advancing to a runoff election, and the Associated Press projects that it's George P. Bush who will be his opponent.
Paxton has faced no shortage of scandals and legal issues, which earned him a crowded GOP primary. His best known challenger is Bush, the commissioner of the Texas General Land Office and son of Jeb Bush. Other challengers included Representative Louie Gohmert and former Republican Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman. His challengers sing from a similar hymnal: if Republicans nominate Paxton, it will give Democrats a chance to win that seat in November because of past controversy over allegations of bribery and abuse of office.
Beto O'Rourke projected to win Democratic primary
As expected, Democrat Beto O'Rourke cruised through his primary. During the primary campaign, he sought to distance himself from national Democrats, acknowledging inflation as he campaigns and dropping his last campaign's emphasis on gun control — his remark, "Hell, yes, we're going to take your AR-15," cost him support in his presidential campaign.
But after the power grid failure and the shift of the state legislature's agenda to the right — enacting a controversial abortion ban and election law overhaul —, Democrats believe they have a fighting chance in November, in spite of Abbott's formidable cash and polling advantage. The University of Texas poll showed Abbott well ahead of O'Rourke 47%-37%. The Dallas Morning News and Emerson polls showed Abbott with high single-digit leads over O'Rourke.
