Should congressional Republicans worry about having Paul Ryan on the ticket?
(CBS News) Last weekend, minutes after Mitt Romney officially tapped Paul Ryan as his running mate, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sent out an email blast. The e-mail, citing a Politico story, touted a recent campaign ad from Montana Senate candidate Denny Rehberg that blasted Ryan's budget plan. What's most interesting about the ad, however, is that Rehberg is a Republican - and that the National Republican Senatorial Committee had helped to fund it.
Democrats across the nation have expressed a certain amount of glee at the prospect of running against Ryan: Unlike Mitt Romney, the seven-term congressman from Wisconsin has a long record with which Democrats can pinpoint his positions on a number of ideological issues.
Congressional Democratic operatives, however, have expressed particular excitement about Ryan's new position: Ryan is the author of a controversial budget plan, which includes an overhaul of the nation's Medicare system so controversial that even some Republicans (see: Denny Rehberg) were running against it.
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"From now until Election Day, Democrats will be on offense and in overdrive, seizing this golden opportunity to define the choice in this election: Republicans putting Millionaires over Medicare and the middle class," said Rep. Steve Israel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), in a statement. "It's crystal clear that the Ryan budget will be a defining issue in congressional races across the country and House Republicans can't escape the political devastation it will cause them."
Democrats object to a number of elements in the Ryan budget, but the Medicare plan - which would turn Medicare into what's called a "premium support," or voucher, plan - has the potential to be perhaps the most politically potent: Polling has consistently shown that voters tend to be wary of major changes to Medicare and that older voters, particularly, feel strongly about the issue.
According to a Pew poll from 2011 surveying voters on a plan with elements that reflect Ryan's, more voters opposed a voucher-style Medicare system than supported it, a trend which was consistent among Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Older voters were particularly averse to the plan: More than half of people ages 50-65 opposed it, and more than 40 percent opposed it strongly.
Democrats are convinced that educating voters about the Ryan budget and Medicare plan will serve them well in House and Senate races, and are working hard to make them defining issues in those races.
"Montana is not a particularly Democratic-leaning state and the NRSC has got their Republican candidate, who's been in Congress for a long time now, up on television saying, 'I voted against this,'" said one Democratic Senate aide. "I think that tells you how toxic it is even in a state like Montana. Imagine how toxic it is going to be in a state like Virginia, that's more contested."
Senate candidates, the aide said, are working to "make sure they're communicating the impacts of what these policies would do and how they would impact not just current retirees but also future retirees as well."
The idea is to highlight those candidates who voted for the Ryan budget, but even for those who weren't in office at the time and haven't taken a strong position on the issue, "it's kind of hung on their neck regardless," the aide argued. "This is their running mate. This is someone they're tied to regardless."
The DCCC has launched two television ads tying Republicans to Ryan's budget plan, as well as robo-calls highlighting 50 Republican congressional candidates' support for the proposal. Meanwhile, Senate candidates in hotly-contested states - including Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, Tim Kaine in Virginia, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, and Shelley Berkley in Nevada - are making Medicare and the Ryan budget prominent issues on the campaign trail.
The DSCC contends that in states like Arizona and Indiana, both of which boast large populations of seniors, the Medicare issue could Democratic give candidates a boost.
"Mitt Romney single-handedly recast the Senate map and improved the landscape for Senate Democrats when he selected Paul Ryan to be his Vice Presidential nominee," said Matt Canter, communications director of the DSCC, in a Friday memo. "While the so-called Ryan plan has already become politically problematic for Republicans across the country, Ryan's selection could prove to be particularly disastrous for Republicans in two key states - Arizona and Indiana."
The best defense is a good offense
Republicans maintain that the Ryan VP pick changes very little down the ballot, because Democrats were going to target Ryan's budget plan, and candidates' support for it, regardless.
"For those members who voted for the Ryan budget, Democrats have already spent the last year attacking them on this issue. In fact, [Senate candidate] Shelley Berkley [D-Nev.] had already run statewide ads on the issue long before Paul Ryan was the vice presidential pick," said one Republican strategist. Meanwhile, for Republicans who didn't vote for the Republican budget "this has been a great opportunity to highlight their independence in their state."
As with the Romney campaign, much of the strategy is grounded not in defending Ryan's plan, but in attacking that of President Obama. Since announcing Ryan as his VP, Romney has relentlessly hammered the president over implementing reductions to Medicare as part of the funding for his health care overhaul.
"We welcome the opportunity to highlight the fact that in every Senate race across the country, only one candidate supported cutting Medicare in order to pay for bigger government," said Brian Walsh, communications director for the NRSC, referring to Mr. Obama.
Democrats argue that the president's reductions don't eliminate any benefits for seniors, and are quick to point out that Ryan proposed similar cuts to Medicare in his 2011 budget. The Romney campaign has emphasized that Ryan would fall in line with his own Medicare plan, however, and argue that his plan would extend the lifeline of the program.
Additionally, Republicans have emphasized that current seniors would not be affected under Romney's plan, which could ostensibly deter them from making the issue a voting priority.
"Our message to Democrats who would rather scare seniors than fix our broken economy is to bring it on," said Mike Shields, political director of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), in a memo last week. Referring to claims that the Ryan plan would end Medicare, he added, "House Democrats have put all their messaging eggs in a single basket - repeat[ing] the claims that Politifact has called the 'lie of the year.' The other lie they're guilty of is the idea that they are the only party who can win on this issue. We have defeated many Democrats on their plans for Medicare, and we are about to defeat even more."
"I believe Romney and Ryan and all other Republican candidates will benefit from the Medicare discussion because it will shed light on a major question among voters: Who is willing to make the tough, though necessary, decisions to reform entitlements, address the deficit, and stimulate this economy so more jobs are created," said Republican strategist Trey Hardin. "As long as candidates are showing they are actually serious about reforming Medicare and other entitlements by being open and honest about what reform means, they will be effective. I have no doubt Republicans are prepared to have that discussion with voters."
Surviving the debate
Candidates on both sides of the debate are already spending heavily to toe the party line over Medicare in the hopes that it's their argument voters believe, and not vice versa. But according to Dan Schnur, a political scientist at the University of Southern California and former Republican strategist, limiting the damage from negative attacks is the best any party can ask for.
"You can't win a debate about Medicare -- you can only survive it. There aren't any politically pleasing options on either side, so the best that either party can do is make the alternative sound even less attractive," said Schnur. "You have to defend yourself. A calculation of a Romney campaign is that a best defense is a good offense."
Romney's own plan has only been loosely defined, though the campaign has said it would be a voucher system. But the extent to which the former Massachusetts governor is able to convince voters that his plan is better than Mr. Obama's could be key in determining how certain demographics vote.
The bottom line, says Carroll Doherty, associate director at the Pew Research Center, is whether or not Democrats are able to chip off some support among seniors - typically a group that votes heavily Republican - and where independent voters fall on the issue.
"In the last two elections, voters 65 and older have been strongly in the GOP's camp, but Ryan's Medicare proposal has the potential at least to cause some to rethink their support for the GOP," he said. "This could cause fissures."
In the meantime, candidates of both parties will inevitably do what they think will best help their chances - even if it means distancing themselves from the party's biggest names.
"The candidates don't need people in Washington telling them what to do, said the NRSC's Walsh. "Every Senate candidate is going to run their own race."
