Seniors Give Gore Florida Edge

Al Gore has a small lead over George W. Bush in the crucial race for Florida's 25 electoral votes, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.

Senior citizens, who make up more than a quarter of the state's likely voters, are helping the vice president to a 46 percent to 42 percent edge over the Texas governor, but Gore's lead is just within the poll's margin of error. Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan trail far behind.

In the Florida Senate race, Democrat Bill Nelson, the state insurance commissioner, has a 42-33 percent lead over GOP Congressman Bill McCollum.

Voters 65 and older give Gore a ten-point edge – enough to make the difference in the race. And their support seems more driven by issues than by personal characteristics; just as many seniors say Bush cares about their needs and problems as think Gore does. Gore also does well with women voters, who give him a ten-point lead.

Florida voters in general are paying more attention to the campaign and may be more committed to their choices than voters are nationally. More than 90 percent of those who have chosen a candidate say their mind is made up and won't change, and more than half of each candidate's supporters describe themselves as enthusiastic. More than half of all registered voters are paying a lot of attention to the campaign. Seniors in particular are more attentive and those who have made a choice are overwhelmingly enthusiastic and committed.

FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
	Gore	Bush	Nader	Buchanan
	46%	42%	3%	1%

What may matter more to the outcome of the race is Florida voters' assessment of what is happening nationally. Fifty percent of the state's voters say they like the direction the country is going, while 45 percent want to change direction.

THE SENATE RACE

Voters are less likely to have made a choice in the race for the Florida Senate seat that is being vacated by Republican Connie Mack, but among those who have, Democrat Nelson is the clear choice: 42 percent of likely voters support Nelson, while 33 percent favor Republican McCollum. Seven percent say they'll vote for Willie Logan, the independent candidate. But 18 percent have not decided who to vote for in the Senate race; even after undecided voters are asked which way they lean, 10 percent of likely voters remain unsure.

SENATE PREFERENCE
	Nelson	McCollum	Logan	Undecided
	42%	33%	7%	18%

ISSUES FOR FLORIDA'S SENIORS

Gore has a decisive advantage over Bush among Florida's seniors. Florida's elderly voters, as all Florida voters, feel Gore would do a better job on important issues; they do not, however, question Bush's caring.

Florida voters over the age of 64 choose Gore over Bush 49 percent to 39 percent. But this advantage stems from issues, not from caring. Overall, Florida voters give Gore a slight edge on caring: 60 percent think he cares about their needs and problems, versus 54 percent who think Bush does. Seniors find it a draw: 60 percent think Gore cares about their needs and problems, but an equal 60 percent think Bush does.

PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE
	Gore	Bush
All	46%	42%
	Gore	Bush
65 and over	49%	39%

Florida's voters think Gore – if elected – is likely to make prescription drug coverage more affordable for the elderly. Overall, 57 percent of voters, including 55 percent of seniors, feel Gore would be likely to reduce the cost of prescription drugs if elected. In contrast, only 45 percent of all voters and 44 percent of senior voters, think Bush would do the same.

Gore also has the advantage of intensity. Over half – 55 percent - of Florida's voters say that the cost of prescription drugs for the elderly matters A LOT to them personally, with baby boomers (ages 45-64) the most concerned at 65 percent. And among those to whom the issue matters a lot, 62 percent see Gore as likely to reduce costs, but only 39 percent think Bush is likely to do so.

This advantage comes as no surprise given that Florida voters trust the government more than the insurance industry on the issue of prescription drugs. Fifty-six percent of Florida voters feel the government would do a better job providing prescription drug coverage for the elderly, while only 29 percent of voters think insurane companies would do better.

Voters also give Gore a slight edge on the issue of Social Security: 46 percent of Florida voters feel that Gore could better handle the issue, while 43 percent think Bush could. Seniors give Gore a slightly larger margin: 47 percent think he would better handle Social Security, versus 42 percent who prefer Bush.

The youngest voters are the most likely to prefer Gore on Social Security, and they are among the most skeptical of the long-term health of the plan. Sixty-one percent of 18-29 year-olds say that Social Security will NOT have funds available for their retirement (62 percent of those 35-44 agree). And they trust Gore most to solve the problem: 52 percent say he would do a better job dealing with it, while only 40 percent say Bush would.

Florida voters are divided over the wisdom of allowing individuals to invest some of their Social Security funds in the stock market – a Bush proposal.

Forty-eight percent of voters think it is a good idea, while 46 percent think it is a bad idea. The elderly, on the other hand, clearly oppose the idea: 57 percent of those over age 64 feel individual investment of Social Security funds is a bad idea, and only 35 percent think it’s a good one.

But Social Security, while important, may not be driving most Florida voters on Election Day. Only 9 percent of Florida voters count Social Security as the single most important issue in their presidential vote, while 72 percent say it is important, but so are other issues. Seniors care a little more: 14 percent say it is THE most important issue in their vote.

THE CAMPAIGN AND THE CANDIDATES

While the presidential race in Florida is close, the tone of the campaign in Florida has, to date, remained fairly positive. Majorities of voters think both candidates have spent most of their time explaining their positions rather than attacking their opponent.

But even though voters see both candidates as running campaigns that are more positive than negative, jabs have been made and most voters think both candidates have made some unfair attacks. Nine percent say that Bush has attacked Gore unfairly, 15 percent think Gore has attacked Bush, and 24 percent think both candidates have made unfair attacks; 41 percent think no unfair attacks have been made at all.

Both Bush and Gore are viewed positively by just under half of Florida voters: 49 percent have a favorable opinion of Gore, and 46 percent have a favorable view of Bush. About one third of voters have negative views of each candidate.

Among the vice presidential candidates, Florida voters seemed to have warmed up to Dick Cheney a little more than they have to Joe Lieberman. Forty-six percent have a favorable view of Cheney, while 40 percent have a positive image of Lieberman.

THE IMPACT OF JEB BUSH

Although he is the brother of one of the candidates, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has yet to deliver voters in his state t his brother's presidential candidacy. Eighty-three percent of voters say that the fact that Jeb is the brother of George W. has made no difference in deciding their vote. Only 4 percent say that relationship has made them more likely to vote for George W., and 11 percent say that has made them less likely to do so.

JEB BUSH IMPACT ON PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
	More likely to vote for Bush	Less likely	No difference
	4%	11%	83%

CUBA AND OTHER ISSUES

Florida voters are in agreement with the outcome of the Elian Gonazalez custody/immigration issue, which culminated in the raid on the home of the boy's Miami relatives by federal marshals last April. Seventy-four percent think the U.S. government did the right thing by returning Elian to his father, who took him back to Cuba; 21 percent think Elian should have been allowed to stay with his Miami relatives.

However, the issue of establishing relations with Cuba is more divisive: 49 percent of voters approve of re-establishing diplomatic and trade relations with Cuba, while 42 percent disapprove of doing so.

This is not a strictly partisan issue, as both Republicans and Democrats are divided in their views. Among Republicans, 44 percent approve of this action and 47 percent disapprove. Although they too are divided, Democrats are slightly more likely to favor relations with Cuba, 49 percent approve and 42 percent disapprove.

Florida Hispanics, many of whom are of Cuban descent, express stronger anti-Cuba feelings. By 73 percent to 24 percent, they overwhelmingly disapprove of establishing relations with Cuba. And they are less enthusiastic about the outcome of the Elian Gonzalez case. Forty-nine percent think returning him to his father was the right thing to do, but nearly as many - 43 percent - think he should have stayed with his Miami relatives, who received strong support from the Cuban community last April.

Gore does well on traditionally Democratic issues, while Bush takes the lead on taxes, a traditionally Republican issue. This reflects the national sentiment. Sixty-seven percent of voters say Gore is likely to protect the environment, almost twice as many as say the same about Bush, and Gore leads Bush on making health care affordable, by 49 percent to 38 percent. Meanwhile, Bush leads Gore on reducing taxes, with 50 percent saying Bush is likely to do so and 29 percent saying the same for Gore.