Senate races where split-ticket voting may matter
It turns out this year, especially, America's ticket-splitters could really hold the key. For Republicans to take over the Senate they might need to win a seat or two in a deep-blue Obama state, notably holding onto Massachusetts with Scott Brown or picking up Hawaii, where they're mounting a serious challenge. Democrats' fate, meanwhile, may rest on whether they can hold seats in red states that Romney will carry, like Montana, Missouri, or North Dakota.
These stand out, too, because these "split" states make up half of our top ten Senate states to watch. (The others races are in Presidential battlegrounds that could go either way and one, Maine, is a real wild card we'll get to later.)
This chart shows the possible split-ticket Senate races and who's favored in the presidential contest:
Here's a closer look at the states where Republicans need to run ahead of Romney:
Massachusetts
Republican incumbent Scott Brown versus Elizabeth Warren in a reliably Democratic state -- at least it is in presidential years, when high turnout means the Democratic advantage in the electorate fully reveals itself. The party has a three-to-one edge on the registration rolls; Democrats' presidential candidates have routinely gotten 60 percent or more of the vote.
Polling in the Senate race has it tight, which means at least some Bay State voters are thinking of ticket-splitting. Supposing Obama gets the same as he did in '08 - 62 percent, or about 1.9 million ballots of three million cast - and every Romney voter were to back Brown, Brown would need roughly 20 percent of Obama's voters to back him. Watch independents, of course, but working class and upper-income Democrats too. If Romney can keep the presidential race closer - which is very possible, given he was the governor here - that would be an enormous help to Brown. In 2008, 11 percent of Massachusetts' Democrats left Obama for John McCain outright - they're prime targets for Brown now, even if some return to the president.
Part of the fun and mystery of this, too, is that there's an imperfect measure of Obama's past coattail effect here. In 2008, 91 percent of Obama's voters stayed Democratic in their Senate vote - if that repeats, good news for Warren - but that '08 Senate candidate was well-known, long-time incumbent John Kerry, who actually got more votes than Obama did.
Hawaii
When you're up late on election night, you may find that its Hawaii that brings the Senate outcome into focus. It would seem Democrats have to hold this one, at a minimum. But former Republican Gov. Linda Lingle is presumed to be the GOP's nominee for the open seat being vacated by the retirement of Sen. Daniel Akaka. That will make this a competitive race. The Democratic nominee (either current Rep. Mazie Hirono or former Rep. Ed Case, with a primary still to come) should have a tailwind based simply on the state's strong Democratic leaning, and the fact that Obama should carry it handily; he got a whopping 72 percent last time in the state where he grew up. That puts a lot of pressure on a Republican running down-ballot to get ticket splitters. But Lingle is well-known as a former governor, so name ID won't be a problem, and in a smaller state there may be some help in not having to persuade as many in terms of raw numbers. If Republicans manage to flip this, that'd be a strong sign they'll take the Senate -- if not the one that, in fact, late in the night, actually puts them over the top.
And places Democrats need to run ahead of Obama:
Missouri
The president came razor-close, but lost Missouri, in '08 even when he had the wind at his back, and it leans to Romney today. So, Democratic incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill - who was one of his early supporters - may not need to run very far ahead of Obama, but ahead of him just the same. Giving it a little recent news context, it's been reported she won't attend the Democratic convention in Charlotte, like a handful of other incumbents in red state territory and districts.
The good news for McCaskill is that she's outpaced Democratic presidential nominees before, as in 2004 when she ran for governor and ran a bit ahead of John Kerry -- though in that case it still wasn't enough to win, which suggests her fortunes are still somewhat tied to Obama's, even if to establish a strong turnout and a baseline. An unknown factor here is that Republicans haven't formally picked a challenger yet, but this one still shapes up as tight. Romney's edge - and this is important to McCaskill, too - is that he's poised to do better in the extended suburbs and rural counties than John McCain did. Those places will define this Senate race as well.
North Dakota
If analysts like to use the phrase "so-and-so is distancing his/herself from Obama," this will be one spot they'll probably do it. This seat popped up on the radar for Republicans as soon as Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad decided to retire; he's held it since the 1980s while the state has been solidly Republican in presidential races. Democrats are hopeful with state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp trying to succeed him, but there's a partisan headwind for her and a lot clearly depends on Obama's fortunes even as he loses the state. He lost by eight points '08 and that was way closer than other recent Democratic presidential candidates. If Romney gets closer to Bush's 2004 numbers (63 percent) than McCain's 2008 (53 percent) it'll go along way toward helping Republican Rick Berg pick this up.
Montana
Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester versus GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg in a campaign that's been going on for a while now. There's a heavy focus on local and state issues in the race that could be a somewhat intervening factor from the effects of national trends, but this is another red state where Obama ran surprisingly well last time, and the Senate contest could rise or fall on how close Obama can come to that again. Romney will likely win, but will Obama's percent look more like the 47 percent he got in '08 or the mere 39 percent John Kerry got?
Maine
Maine is an interesting case and is worth its own review later. Former Gov. Angus King, an independent, is running and is the favorite - but it isn't clear whether he'd caucus with Republicans or Democrats in Congress. It's a Republican-held seat now so that could - could - be a hit to the GOP's takeover chances. Obama may carry the state, but Romney could compete well in one of its congressional districts for an electoral vote, so we'll have to see if he puts resources in and what that may do to the Senate race. If King were to declare a party (and no sign he will) or the Republican candidate were to make a run at this, it could also fall squarely into the ticket-split category. Stay tuned.
To give some broader context, even with partisanship running high these days, split party winners in Senate and presidential races do happen, though we often see it when the senator is a long-serving, well-known incumbent whose connection to the state has come to transcend partisanship for some, or who hasn't drawn a serious challenge. In 2008, most recently, the winners were from different parties 20 percent of the time; all but one of those re-elected an incumbent Senator.
There are other factors here, too, most notably organization and turnout. Ticket-splitting of course pertains to those who go to the polls in the first place. Turnout, though, is a wild card in non-presidential battlegrounds. In 2008, then-candidate Obama had a massive operation, including in red states he didn't win, but where he'd competed hard in primaries or caucuses (Montana and North Dakota are good examples of that.) If the Obama campaign isn't as focused on those states again this time, other Democratic or affiliated groups will be critical, and the same goes for Romney and the Republicans if he sees no need to invest there himself.
Overall, Democrats hold only a narrow Senate margin (53-47) now, with 33 total seats up in November. And so throughout the fall we'll no doubt hear a lot about this or that race being the "pivotal" one that will decide the Senate (admittedly, you may even see that in this space, too). But it may be that this year the most pivotal player of all is that split-ticket voter.
Joe Williams contributed to this report.
