Romney likely to see Mormon boost in Nevada caucuses

Mitt Romney's Mormonism didn't seem to do him any favors in Iowa and South Carolina, where some evangelical voters expressed discomfort with the former Massachusetts governor's faith.

But in Nevada, Romney's religion is a serious asset. For proof, look to the 2008 Nevada Republican caucuses, which Romney won handily with 51 percent of the vote. (Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the runner-up, garnered less than a third of Romney's take.) Twenty-six percent of participants in that contest were Mormon, and 95 percent caucused for Romney.

According to Gallup, just 5.6 percent of the population of Nevada is Mormon. But Mormons are (1) overwhelmingly Republican and (2) far more likely than other Nevadans to show up at the caucuses. Less than 45,000 people participated in Nevada's GOP caucuses in 2008, which made it relatively easy for the state's relatively small Mormon population to have a big impact. (The state currently has more than 468,000 registered Republicans, but most won't be making it to one of the state's roughly 125 caucus locations this evening.)

The Mormon vote isn't Romney's only advantage in Nevada. He's been endorsed by the state's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, as well as Reps. Joe Heck and Mark Amodei; he also has momentum in the wake of his January 31 Florida primary victory, as well as an advantage in organization, financial resources and establishment support over his rivals.

The only GOP candidate challenging Romney in terms of organization is Paul, who finished a distant second in Nevada in 2008, with 13.7 percent of the vote. Paul's libertarian message plays better in the West than it does in a state like South Carolina or Florida, and the fact that caucuses depress turnout tends to help him, since his passionate followers can make more of an impact.

Yet Paul, who has been campaigning around the state this week, is not polling particularly well in Nevada: A recent Las Vegas Review-Journal survey of Republicans planning to participate in the caucuses showed Paul with just nine percent of the vote. Romney was the clear leader in that survey with 45 percent support, followed by former House speaker Newt Gingrich at 25 percent.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum was in third with 11 percent support, followed by the last-place Paul. It's worth noting that polls of caucuses tend to be less accurate, and Nevada in particular is a tough state in which to poll. In 2008, the polls going into the contest turned out to be far off base, though it was because they far underestimated Romney's level of support.

Gingrich has one reason to love Nevada: Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and his wife have dumped $10 million into a super PAC backing Gingrich's campaign, money without which Gingrich might no longer be in the race. (Adelson's influence in Nevada is such that it is widely believed he is the reason a special Nevada Republican caucus is being scheduled late Saturday evening so that orthodox Jews can attend; Adelson denies involvement.) There has been speculation that Gingrich will meet with Adelson while in Nevada, presumably in an effort to drum up more financial support from his longtime friend, though no such meeting has been made public.

Gingrich has been hoping that the state's strong Tea Party contingent - which drove Sharron Angle to the GOP Senate nomination in 2010 - would line up behind him, but instead Tea Party support has been fractured. (Angle, for one, is backing Santorum.) He has just two paid staff members in the state, and his campaign there has not run smoothly: In one telling incident, Gingrich missed a meeting with the state's popular Republican governor, Brian Sandoval, because of a failure in coordination between Gingrich's national and local staff.

Santorum, meanwhile, has done some campaigning in Nevada but seems more focused on Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota, which hold their contests on February 7.

There are 28 delegates up for grabs in Nevada, and they will be allocated proportionally based on the statewide caucus vote; that means that even with Romney likely to win, the other candidates have an incentive to fight for the state in hopes of maximizing their delegate count. (CBS News estimates that Romney currently holds 69 pledged delegates, followed by Gingrich with 23, Santorum with 19 and Paul with 3; it takes 1,144 to secure the nomination.) Participation in the caucuses is limited to Registered Republicans, though residents can register as Republicans at the caucuses.

In the 2008 GOP caucuses, nearly half of voters were over 65, 88 percent were white, and 75 percent described themselves as conservative, according to CBS News entrance polls. The state was hit particularly hard by the recession and housing crisis, and it has both the highest unemployment and foreclosure rate in the nation.

The polls will close at 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time, when the final caucus convenes; that's the earliest time CBS News and other media outlets will make a projection of a winner. You can follow the results as they come in on the CBSNews.com Nevada election page.