Retail sales rise at fastest pace in more than a year
WASHINGTON - Robust spending by consumers last month provided a welcome lift for the U.S. economy.
Americans stepped up their online shopping and bought more autos in April, suggesting that consumers may be faring better than indicated by a slump among major retailers.
The Commerce Department says retail sales climbed a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent last month, after a drop in March caused largely by declining car sales. That figure topped consensus economic forecasts of 0.8 percent and was the fastest rate of growth since March of 2015.
"The tone of this report was unambiguously positive, and the sharp rebound in core spending activity was particularly encouraging, as it suggests that underlying spending momentum may be back on track after the inexplicable stutters earlier this year," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief U.S. macro strategist with TD Securities, in a client note.
Spending on autos recovered in April, with sales jumping 3.2 percent. Online purchases advanced 2.1 percent. Clothiers, restaurants, sporting goods stores, grocers, gas stations and even the embattled department store sector saw higher sales. Only building materials stores suffered a monthly decline, although their annual sales growth was solid.
Total retail sales have risen 3 percent in the past 12 months.
"The April numbers will translate into solid real spending on goods," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note.
The growth comes after worrisomely poor earnings reports from several prominent retailers including Macy's, Nordstrom and Kohl's.
But Friday's government sales data offered at least a tentative hint that consumers may not be retrenching so much as shifting their purchases toward online retailers such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and sapping traffic from traditional malls.
Ken Perkins of Retail Metrics, a research firm, suggested one reason for the malaise among traditional store chains: Incomes are rising only tepidly despite an improving job market, making women less likely to step up spending on clothing at a time when Amazon has intensified price competition.
"My gut says that women don't have the money outside replenishing items," Perkins said. "And the Amazon effect is gaining momentum."
Indeed, spending at non-store retailers -- which include online and catalogs -- has climbed a robust 10.2 percent from a year ago, according to the government. By contrast, sales at both department stores and electronics outlets have fallen over the past 12 months.
Shoppers such as Morgan Province of Herndon, Virginia, say they're tightening spending for a variety of reasons.
Province says she is saving for a summer move, and her tax refund was "unusually small" this year. And she said that when she does buy, she's spending more online. She's now going to Amazon.com every two weeks, compared with every six or eight weeks a year ago.
"It's more convenient," she said. "It's more affordable, and there are more options."
Macy's (M) dropped its report with a clunk on Wednesday. It slashed its profits and sales outlook in response to a key sales measure experiencing its worst decline since the Great Recession.
Other outlets including Nordstrom (JWN) and Kohl's (KSS) also reported dismal sales figures.
In response to falling revenue, stores announced plans to boost profitability. Nordstrom said it's cutting back on inventory and reducing expenses. Macy's plans to speed up launches for exclusive fashions, in addition to cutting expenses and plow the savings into adding sales help online and in the stores.
"Clearly, our industry is in something of a rough patch," said Karen Hoguet, chief financial officer at Macy's.
Yet Hoguet views the declines as puzzling given a recent hiring streak that has held unemployment to a healthy 5 percent.
"We're frankly scratching our heads," she added "We see the same economic data you all see and it would point to customer that would be spending more."
Many analysts examining the decline point to a confluence of factors that are not new but perhaps are accelerating. Shoppers are spending less on clothing in order to devote more their incomes to experiences like dining out. And when shoppers do spend on clothing, they're more likely to spend it at T.J. Maxx and other off-price chains.