Red Flags: Five Danger Signals for Electric Cars

There still aren't many electric cars on the road, but we're already getting some clear indications of the speed bumps on the road to widespread adoption. Here are five early warning signs:

The weather outside is frightful.... BMW's first electric car, the Mini E, is more than a year into a long-term test program on both the east and west coast. That program, mostly outsourced to AC Propulsion, showcased the importance of active onboard battery management. Some of the Mini E's were down to 70 percent of their expected range in cold weather, and EV project manager Rich Steinberg says part of that can be attributed to drivers using the heater (which is a straight battery drain), but another factor is poor battery performance when cold. And that's why the ActiveE electric fleet (based on the 1-Series Coupe) that will replace the Mini Es next year have both liquid heating and cooling for the batteries. But the cost of systems like that adds to the already high price of EVs.

Charging ahead.... It would be great if there was a next-phase battery chemistry that promised to reduce the cost and size of packs, while also increasing range. But lithium-ion remains the state of the art in terms of energy density. Some other applications might offer advantages in specific situations, such as nickel-zinc for the new generations of start-stop micro-hybrids, but can't replace li-ion. That means we're not likely to soon see huge price and range breakthroughs for the packs, which range from $10,000 to $30,000 in current applications.

How a bill becomes law.... Governments are too preoccupied with the worldwide recession and putting people back to work (not to mention squabbling over forthcoming elections) to focus on approving innovative subsidies for EVs. As I reported, Congress can't even schedule a simple vote on renewing a non-controversial $2,000 tax credit for home and business electric car chargers. The Electrification Coalition believes that 75 percent of miles traveled by 2040 can be electric miles -- but that's if its ambitious legislative agenda, which includes targeted subsidies in EV early adoption cities, gets passed. But Congress is preoccupied. And so much for the federal government as procurer in chief -- the General Services Administration told me last week that the feds own exactly one plug-in electric car.

Sticker shock.... Some EV prices are disturbingly high, and those battery pack costs have a lot to do with it. Some people reeled at the $41,000 for the Chevrolet Volt "range extender," but that was swiftly eclipsed by the $44,900 for the Coda electric sedan. These are not luxury cars: In fact, to save weight and energy-draining accessories, automakers are sometimes making them a bit Spartan. So what happens when consumers, even the same ones who said they'd buy an EV in polls, get to the actual showrooms and compare the $40,000 offerings?

Left in limbo--.A bright spot for people who worry about interminable charge times is that public 480-volt stations can do the job in half an hour. But there's only one public fast charger in the U.S. right now, and that's because there's no agreement yet on high-voltage charging standards. Tokyo Electric Power developed the so-called CHAdeMO standard, and it's already widely used there on cars like the Mitsubishi i-MiEV. But both European and U.S. officials are still arguing about whether to adopt CHAdeMO or their own proprietary standards. Meanwhile, carmakers don't know what to do. A few EVs, such as the i-MiEV and the Nissan Leaf will be CHAdeMO-compliant. But as a sign of the confusion, only those Leafs sold in markets that Nissan thinks might have fast-charging capacity will get the plugs. This effort should be on a fast track.

That's five, and I could easily find five more reasons to be cautious. But it also wouldn't be hard to find five positive signs, because there are green shoots sprouting up all over.

Related:

• The Micro-Hybrids are Coming!
• Coda EV's Price as Big as Its Battery Pack: $44,900
• Japan Pioneers Two Good Ideas: Fast Charging and Battery Swapping