Real estate housing market continues unsteady path
While everyone else was slowing down in December, it turned out to be a busy month for housing market news.
First, we learned the FHA's financial condition worsened in October when its delinquency rate topped 17 percent. Then, the results of Fannie Mae's November National Housing Survey were released, surprising everyone with news that homeowners are optimistic their home values will rise in 2012.
Let's hope so. The most recent edition of the S&P/Case Shiller Index shows home prices fell roughly one percent in October in both the 10- and 20-city composite indices. David M. Blintzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, notes that "19 of the cities posted price declines in October over September." That's bad news if you're a homeowner looking to make even a little money on the sale of your home.
Two bright spots did come out of the S&P/Case Shiller Index. Phoenix, which was absolutely devastated by the burst of the housing bubble, saw prices rise 0.3 percent from September to October. Even better is Detroit, home to some famously cheap single family residences. It is the "healthiest when viewed on an annual basis," according to Blitzer. Home prices there are up 2.5 percent from October 2010.
Phoenix and Detroit weren't alone in their small gains. Nationally, new single-family home sales rose nearly 2 percent in November, reaching an annual rate of 315,000 units and up from the 310,000 in October. Add to that the falling delinquency rates in the commercial real estate sector and it seems we might be on the verge of a slight recovery.
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But it's not all good news. Freddie Mac's single-family delinquency rate rose to 3.57 percent in November 2011, up from 3.54 percent in October. Considering Freddie's single-family guarantee volume rose to $27 billion in November - that makes up 71 percent of Freddie Mac's total portfolio - rising delinquency rates could spell trouble.
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New foreclosures also increased more than 21 percent from last quarter as the foreclosure bottleneck opened up. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) said mortgage servicers "lifted voluntary moratoria implemented in late 2010," when the robo-signing controversy first came to light, leading to an increase in foreclosure activity.
Though newly initiated foreclosures declined from 2010 to 2011, the OCC reveals foreclosures account for more than one million loans in the overall mortgage portfolio measured. That's up more than seven percent from one year earlier, and more bad news for housing market prices: A glut of foreclosures on the market means home values could fall even further before finally turning around. Even so, processing those foreclosures now means less negative pressure on home prices in the future.
With this mixed bag of housing market news, it's tough to tell which direction the housing market is headed right now. But clearly real estate continues its unsteady path.
