Primary Puzzles: 2012 primary dates still unknown
Mark your calendars.... Oh wait a minute - don't.
Never mind who's leading or trailing, the big question in the Republican nomination fight is figuring out WHEN the primaries will be. Although the parties have penciled in Iowa to kick things off on February 6th, with New Hampshire to follow, that could still change...and we may not have final dates until late fall.
Why you ask? Like in years past, a lot hinges on Florida. Here's why:
Florida Republicans want to go early in the process, to give themselves and their big state a more determinative say in who the eventually nominee will be. As of now, by state law the Florida primary is January 31, 2012. But that would put it before Iowa and the rest, which naturally has Iowa, New Hampshire and the national party none too pleased.
The Republican National Committee and other states are pressing Florida to move back its date. So faced with a big decision under pressure, Florida's Governor Rick Scott and the Republican-controlled state legislature have done what any smart politicians would do: they appointed a commission to decide instead.
The commission, which was part of an election reform law that was recently signed by the Governor, will be comprised of 9 members, three each appointed by the Governor, the Speaker of the House, and the Senate President. The Commission will have the sole authority to determine the date of the Florida primary, but they are limited to picking a date between the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March.
Here's an added headache for those of us trying to pin all this down: the Commission has to decide by October 1, 2011. The good news is that it doesn't have to take that long. Once the commission gets going it could make its decision anytime - but October 1 is the deadline.
That's way we may not know the primary schedule for a while. After Florida makes its call, the other states are going to react - quite likely by moving even earlier.
CBSNews.com special report: Election 2012
If Florida stayed up high on the calendar, January or early February, it's a good bet Iowa would move itself up even further, from February 6th to maybe as early as January 9th or so, and New Hampshire, by its own state law, is going to put itself as the first primary in the nation, and wants to be at least a week ahead of the next contest, too. National party rules have it now on the 14th of February; if Iowa went in early January New Hampshire might push itself to perhaps (and we're speculating here) January 17th.
And let's not forget the other states. South Carolina and Nevada also enjoy a special permission from the party to go early, so they'll look to fit in. We could see South Carolina in late January or, the way the party wants it, in late February.
Beyond that, there are a lot of states deciding whether or not to be part of a larger group going on March 6 -- whether or not that would be a "Super Tuesday" remains to be seen - or in March at all, or later. Virginia and Texas could be then, along with Tennessee, Oklahoma, and others. Louisiana was considering going earlier, but it's aiming for the end of March... and so on. One of the considerations in state legislatures now, in a tough budgetary year for many, is whether to incur the costs of running a primary, and when, and whether to consolidate a Presidential primary with the rest of the state primary contests which are often held later in the year - that's why usual Super-Tuesday participant California is considering a consolidated primary in June.
Another calculus for the states is that early may not be the only way to get attention. There's always the chance a drawn-out contest could put additional drama and focus on a state that goes later in the process (recall this happened a lot in the Obama-Clinton race of 2008) instead of early, as a winnowed field comes down to the wire.
So we'll keep an eye on all this, and especially on Florida. You'll recall Florida went early in 2008, and it seems no one wants a repeat of that outcome. The national Democratic party penalized their delegation; Iowa and New Hampshire moved themselves up even earlier into January that year (Iowa went right after New Year's) and everyone seemed to think that was way too early.
Oh, and by the way, the Republicans are holding their convention in Tampa next year, making it all the more awkward for them to cajole Florida by threatening to penalizing its delegates... so even as the candidates jockey for position in the primaries, the states are still jockeying to even schedule the primaries in the first place.
