Poll: The American Century

As we draw closer to what many people view as another "American century," Americans are generally optimistic, although they worry about growing threats like terrorism, environmental damage, poverty and crime, according to a new CBS News Sunday Morning poll. Americans also express concern about some advances in technology and science.

And with New Year's Eve just a few weeks away, half of Americans are expecting the start of the new century on January 1st. The other half of Americans are waiting for 2001 to celebrate the new century.

THE SECOND AMERICAN CENTURY

Americans say that America's role in the 20th century has been a dominant one, and they see that trend continuing well into the 21st century.

AMERICA'S IMPACT ON THE REST OF THE WORLD

Few people say that America has had little impact in the past century, and hardly any see America's influence declining in the new century. America's biggest perceived impact has been on popular culture in the rest of the world: 70 percent of adults say the U.S. has had a lot of impact on popular culture. Nearly nine in ten Americans say the U.S. will have at least as much impact on popular culture in the next century as it has had in this one.

Americans also say the U.S. has played a strong role in global politics and global economics. Many expect America's current role in global politics to increase in the 21st century - 40 percent say America's impact will increase, while 46 percent think it will remain the same. People think America has had somewhat less influence on art and music.

Half of adults say America has had a lot of impact this century on art and music around the world. But 90 percent of Americans believe America's impact on art and music in the next century will equal or surpass its impact in this one.

Younger people are more likely to see an increasingly influential role for the United States in the 21st century. For example, 52 percent of 18-29 year-olds say that America's impact on global politics will increase in the coming 100 years, while only 32 percent of those over 65 years of age say it will.

THE SHAPE OF THE 21ST CENTURY: HOPES AND CONCERNS

People are generally optimistic about life in the 21st century. Forty-four percent of adults say that life in the next hundred years will be better than it is today. Twenty-nine percent believe life will be worse than today, and 23 percent think it will be pretty much the same. This favorable outlook has increased in the past year and a half: in March of 1998, only 36 percent thought life would be better in the next century.

LIFE WILL BE BETTER

Those who are doing well financially in THIS century are more likely to say life will be better in the next. Fifty-five percent of those who make over $75,000 a year say that life will be better, compared to only 42 percent of those who make under $15,000. Even among the lowest income levels, however, views are more optimistic than pessimistic.

Despite this general optimism, most people see some of society's current problems continuing. The biggest problems people foresee for the United States in the next century include crime, moral values, poverty and health care.

BIGGEST PROBLEMS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

Globally, Americans foresee a different set of problems. Eighteen percent cite war as the biggest problem for the world in the next century, and 12 percent cite hunger and poverty. Other concerns include overpopulation, mentioned by 8 percent, and the environment, mentioned by 6 percent.

When asked about these specific problems, people also express pessimism. Over two-thirds of Americans think that terrorism will INCREASE in the next century, and 36 percent think there will be more war. Just under half say there will be about the same amount of war there has been this century.

People see the environment worsening, and poverty lingering. Fifty-four percent of adults say the environment will get worse in the 21st century, while only 21 percent feel it will get better, and 23 percent think it will stay about the same. Only 9 percent of Americans think poverty will be eradicated in the next century, while an overwhelming 89 percent say it will not.

On the positive side, 59 percent of people think African-Americans will finally achieve full equality, although onl32 percent of African-Americans agree.

WORKING AND LIVING

In terms of their daily lives, Americans expect to work longer hours in the next century, and worship about the same. Forty-one percent say people will spend more hours working in the next century, while only 22 percent think people will have more leisure time. Forty percent of adults say people will be as religious in the next century as they are today, while a third say people will be more religious, and 26 percent predict less religion.

WORKING AND WORSHIPING

In addition to working more, people believe they may be working longer: 78 percent say that most people will not be retiring at age 65 in the next century, while only 20 percent think that will still be the norm. Many Americans also think people may be working out of their homes more: 52 percent say people will still be leaving home to go to work at the end of the next century, but 46 percent say they will not.

WILL MOST PEOPLE STILL BE...?

Culturally, people predict things will remain by and large the same. Eighty-two percent say that most people will still be getting married at the end of the next century, and 88 percent predict people will still be speaking different languages. Fifty-six percent of adults say that raising children with two parents will remain the standard, but a substantial 40 percent see two-parent families fading away.

SCIENCE FACT AND SCIENCE FICTION IN THE 21ST CENTURY

People see great advances for science in the coming 100 years - most believe that genetically engineered babies, human cloning and increased life spans will all be possible, although there are divisions over the desrability of such advances.

GENETIC ENGINEERING

Eighty-five of Americans say that genetically engineering babies will be possible in the next century, but they are unsure about the normative implications of such technology. When asked whether they think it is right or wrong to genetically alter babies to limit their susceptibility to genetic diseases, the public divides evenly: 46 percent say it is right, 47 percent say it is wrong.

Among the most religious, the practice is clearly wrong: 59 percent of those who say religion is extremely important in their lives say that genetically altering babies to reduce risk of disease is wrong.

GENETIC ENGINEERING - RIGHT OR WRONG?

Three in four people oppose genetic engineering for the less weighty purpose of choosing a baby's sex: 75 percent say it is wrong to use science to have a child of a specific sex. But they do not seem to mind genetically engineered food: 65 percent say it is all right to alter food to enhance flavor or nutrients, or to prolong freshness.

American's are less conflicted over human cloning they believe that cloning will be possible in the next century, but most oppose the practice. Sevent-four percent of people say that cloning human beings will be possible, and the vast majority of those who think it will be possible think it is a bad thing. In fact, 64 percent of all Americans say human cloning is a bad thing.

LIVING LONGER

People are more positive about scientific advances that could help them live longer. Seventy-six percent of people think that in the next century, science will help most people to live to be one hundred years old. Overall, 61 percent think that this will be a good thing. On the other hand, only 43 percent think that more and more women over 50 years old will be having children, and those who think it will happen are divided over whether or not it would be a good thing. Men are more positive about this possibility than are women.

LONGER LIFE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

ROBOTS AND SPACE FLIGHT

In the realm of science fiction, robots are on the agenda for the 21st century, but space aliens are not. Half of Americans say that there is intelligent life other than earth's in outer space, but only 29 percent expect there will be contact with that life in the next century. Fifty-eight percent of adults say people will not make contact with aliens in the next hundred years.

IN THE 21ST CENTURY WILL WE...?

Over two-thirds of all adults believe that in the next century it will be possible to make robots that look and act like human beings, while just a quarter are skeptical about this. Americans are more skeptical about space travel: only 40 percent think it will be possible to take vacation cruises into outer space, and only 21 percent would go.

WHEN DOES THE CENTURY BEGIN?

Despite purists telling them that the new millennium and the new century begin in the year 2001, half of Americans still believe the changeover will happen this coming New Year's Eve. Forty-seven percent of adults say that the new century starts on January 1st, 2000, while 47 percent say it starts on January 1st, 2001.

Those with more education are more likely to believe the new century starts in 2001, but even 38 percent of college graduates still believe the new century begins in a few weeks.

WHEN DOES THE NEW CENTURY START?

Despite expectations of a new century, few people are doing anything special this New Year's Eve. Sixty-four percent of Americans say this coming New Year's is just like any other. Thirty-five percent think the night is something special, but only 11 percent of Americans are making special plans to celebrate it.

JUST ANOTHER NIGHT?

New Year's Eve 1999: