Poll: Part 3
THE CAMPAIGN AND THE CANDIDATES
Despite the recent drops in the President's ratings, he has not lost ground against his Democratic rival John Kerry -- but the contest continues to be extremely close. If the presidential election were held today, 46 percent of voters say they would vote for Kerry, and 44 percent would vote for Bush. In a CBS News poll conducted between March 30 to April 1, Kerry held a five-point edge over Bush, while earlier that month Bush led Kerry by three points.
KERRY VS. BUSH: CHOICE IN NOVEMBER
(Registered voters)
John Kerry
Now
46%
3/30-4/1 48%
March 43%
George Bush
Now 44%
3/30-4/1 43%
March 46%
There are still six months of the campaign to go, but three quarters of voters say they have already made up their mind in their candidate choice. 55 percent of Bush's voters say the support him because they strongly favor him, but many of Kerry's voters are motivated as much by their dislike of the President: one-third of Kerry's voters say they strongly favor Kerry, 28 percent support him with some reservations, and 38 percent say they support Kerry because they dislike Bush.
SUPPORT CANDIDATE BECAUSE…
(Registered voters)
Strongly favor candidate
Bush voters 55%
Kerry voters 32%
Support with reservations
Bush voters 35%
Kerry voters 28%
Dislike other candidates
Bush voters 8%
Kerry voters 38%
But assessments of the President have deteriorated on several fronts. Over half of voters now say they are uneasy about Bush's approach in dealing with an international crisis, more than at any time since the summer before September 11, 2001. Just 44 percent now have confidence in Bush's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, a 22-point drop from a year ago.
CONFIDENCE IN BUSH'S HANDLING OF INTERNATIONAL CRISIS
(Registered Voters, Except 4/2003 )
Have confidence
Now 44%
3/10-14/2004 53%
4/2003 66%
6/2001 43%
Uneasy
Now 53%
3/10-14/2004 46%
4/2003 31%
6/2001 51%
But Kerry also has a negative assessment on this question, although he has made small gains in the last month. 39 percent of voters are confident in Kerry's ability to handle an international crisis, up from 33 percent in March. 47 percent are still uneasy about Kerry's approach.
CONFIDENCE IN KERRY'S HANDLING OF INTERNATIONAL CRISIS
(Registered Voters)
Have confidence
Now 39%
3/1-14/2004 33%
Uneasy
Now 47%
3/10-14/2004 48%
Recent turmoil in Iraq has also hurt voters' confidence in the decisions Bush makes about the war that started just over a year ago. A majority have at least some confidence in the President's making the right decisions about Iraq, but only 28 percent say they have a lot of confidence. 42 percent say they have little or no confidence in Bush making the right decisions about the war in Iraq. A year ago, 49 percent of Americans had a lot of confidence that Bush would make the right decisions about Iraq, and just 23 percent were not confident.
CONFIDENCE IN CANDIDATE'S ABILITY TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS ABOUT IRAQ
(Registered Voters)
A lot
Bush 28%
Kerry 18%
Some
Bush 30%
Kerry 43%
Not much/none
Bush 42%
Kerry 35%
That puts the President at about the same level with John Kerry on this issue. 61 percent of voters now say they have at least some confidence in Kerry's ability to make the right decisions about Iraq (fewer have a lot of confidence in Kerry than in Bush, however), while 35 percent don't have much confidence.
Right now, voters view both candidates more negatively than positively, although the margins are relatively small. Twice as many voters have no opinion about Kerry as have no opinion about Bush.
OPINIONS OF THE CANDIDATES
(Registered Voters)
Now
Favorable
G.W. Bush 38%
Kerry 27%
Unfavorable
G.W. Bush 43%
Kerry 33%
Undecided
G.W. Bush 19%
Kerry 40%
1992
Favorable
George H.W. Bush 35%
Clinton 26%
Unfavorable
George H.W. Bush 44%
Clinton 40%
Undecided
George H.W. Bush 20%
Clinton 34%
1992 was the last presidential election in which both candidates were viewed more negatively than positively at this point of the campaign. In April 1992, voters viewed then-President George H. W. Bush unfavorably by 44 percent to 35 percent, and had unfavorable views about Bill Clinton by 40 percent to 26 percent.
For now, Bush holds an edge over Kerry on likeability and having a vision for the country (although both get very positive marks on this). Bush leads Kerry by 10 points on sharing the moral values most Americans try to live by. Voters don't see either candidate as sharing their priorities, but fewer say that about Kerry than about Bush.
EVALUATIONS OF THE CANDIDATES
(Registered Voters)
Has vision for the country
Bush Yes 77%
Bush No 19%
Kerry Yes 69%
Kerry No 20%
Shares moral values
Bush Yes 68%
Bush No 25%
Kerry Yes 58%
Kerry No 23%
Likeable personality
Bush Yes 57%
Bush No 37%
Kerry Yes 48%
Kerry No 33%
Says what he believes
Bush Yes 53%
Bush No 43%
Kerry Yes 29%
Kerry No 61%
Shares priorities
Bush Yes 42%
Bush No 55%
Kerry Yes 37%
Kerry No 45%
Kerry continues to suffer from charges that he "flip-flops" on issues: by two to one, voters say most of the time Kerry says what he thinks people want to hear, instead of what he really believes. By 53 percent to 43 percent, voters say Bush says what he believes most of the time.
Overall, six in ten voters say it is somewhat or very important for a president to have served in the military. Kerry's service in the U.S. Navy in Vietnam is seen by almost half the voters as a valuable experience that would help him be an effective president. 45 percent say his Vietnam experience wouldn't matter much.
CANDIDATE'S MILITARY EXPERIENCE
(Registered Voters)
Would help him be effective president
Kerry in Vietnam 48%
Bush in Nat'l Guard 23%
Would be an obstacle
Kerry in Vietnam 6%
Bush in Nat'l Guard 8%
Wouldn't matter
Kerry in Vietnam 45%
Bush in Nat'l Guard 68%
On the other hand, just under a quarter think Bush's experience in the U.S. National Guard helps him to effectively serve as President, but over two-thirds say it doesn't matter much.
THE CANDIDATES AND THE ISSUES
Economy and jobs continues to top the list of issues voters most want to hear the candidates discuss. But the war in Iraq, although still in second place, is now mentioned by one in five voters, a 10-point jump from 11 percent six weeks ago, and the highest it has ever been since the CBS News/ New York Times Poll began asking this question last December.
ISSUE VOTERS MOST LIKE TO HEAR CANDIDATES DISCUSS
(Registered Voters)
Economy and jobs
Now 25%
3/2004 31%
War in Iraq
Now 21%
3/2004 11%
Health care/Medicare
Now 8%
3/2004 10%
Education
Now 5%
3/2004 4%
Looking ahead, voters see the economy as more likely to get worse if Bush is re-elected than if Kerry is elected in November, although more think either way the economy will stay the same or get better. Kerry may be hurt by the public's perception of his as a tax raiser: 47 percent of voters think their taxes will go up if Kerry is elected. 58 percent think their taxes will stay the same if Bush is re-elected.
THE ECONOMIC PICTURE
(Registered Voters)
The economy will:
Get better if Bush is reelected 27%
Get better if Kerry is elected 28%
Get worse if Bush is reelected 28%
Get worse if Kerry is elected 18%
Stay the same if Bush is reelected 42%
Stay the same If Kerry is elected 44%
Personal taxes will:
Go up if Bush is reelected 34%
Get better if Kerry is elected 47%
Go down if Bush is reelected 5%
Go down if Kerry is elected 6%
Stay the same if Bush is reelected 58%
Stay the same if Kerry is elected 39%
Voters have at least some confidence that each candidate would make the right decisions to protect the U.S. from terrorist attack.
THE NADER FACTOR
If Independent candidate Ralph Nader is included on the ballot in November and the election were held today, 41 percent of voters would vote for Kerry; 43 percent would vote for Bush. Nader would draw 5 percent of the vote, mostly at the expense of Kerry, who holds a two-point edge in the two-way contest.
KERRY VS. BUSH VS. NADER: CHOICE IN NOVEMBER
(Registered Voters)
Kerry41%
Bush43%
Nader5%
Just one in ten voters now view Nader favorably, while 31 percent of voters view him unfavorably. 57 percent have no opinion about Nader.
Did Nader help Bush win in 2000? Voters are evenly divided: 44 percent think the 2000 election result would not have been different if Nader had not run for president, but another 44 percent think Al Gore would probably have won had Nader not been on the ballot. This year Nader may not qualify to be on the ballot in all 50 states.
IF NADER HAD NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2000…
(Registered Voters)
Gore would have won
All 44%
Bush voters 23%
Kerry voters 67%
No difference
All 44%
Bush voters 64%
Kerry voters 24%
67 percent of Kerry voters think Gore probably would have won the 2000 election had Nader not run, but 64 percent of today's Bush voters say that would have made no difference in the outcome.
MILITARY FAMILIES
Recently, photos of caskets containing the remains of those soldiers who died in the Iraq war were published contrary to Pentagon policy. The Pentagon cited family privacy concerns as a reason to not publish such pictures. In this poll, 63 percent of Americans say the public should be allowed to see pictures of the caskets of soldiers killed in Iraq and the same number of military family members agree.
SHOULD THE PUBLIC BE ALLOWED TO SEE PICTURES OF CASKETS OF SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ?
Yes
Total 63%
Military households 61%
No
Total 29%
Military households 30%
Military families are like the public overall on other issues. Both groups are opposed to reinstating the draft to provide soldiers for the Iraq war. 60 percent of military family members are opposed to reinstating the draft to provide soldiers for the Iraq conflict; so are 70 percent of Americans overall.
REINSTATING THE MILITARY DRAFT
Favor
Total 24%
Military households 31%
Oppose
Total 70%
Military households 60%
Six in ten military family members now say the war was NOT worth the costs, and the same number think the Bush Administration was too quick to get American military forces involved, figures close to the overall totals. Nearly half of those living in military households think the U.S. made a mistake getting involved in the war with Iraq, identical to the number of Americans overall. On whether the U.S. did the right thing in taking action against Iraq, 48 percent of those in military familes say the U.S. did the right thing as do 47 percent of Americans overall.
THE IRAQ WAR
Worth it
Total 33%
Military households 33%
Not worth it
Total 58%
Military households 60%
Mistake
All 48%
Military households 48%
Not a mistake
All 46%
Military households 48%
Bush Administration too quick to get military involved
All 61%
Military households 62%
Right thing
All 47%
Military households 48%
Stayed out
All 46%
Military households 43%
As for the value of a president's military experience, voters living in military households are a bit more likely than voters overall to say it is very important for a president to have served in the military. 29 percent of voters who live in military household say it is very important for a president to have served in the military compared to 22 percent of American voters overall.
IMPORTANCE OF A PRESIDENT'S MILITARY EXPERIENCE
(Registered Voters)
Very
Total 22%
Military households 29%
Somewhat
Total 38%
Military households 35%
Not
Total 39%
Military households 36%
49 percent of voters living in military households think John Kerry's military experience in Vietnam would help him be an effective president. However, 43 percent say his military experience wouldn't matter that much. 5 percent view his experience as an obstacle.
CANDIDATES' MILITARY EXPERIENCE
(Voters in Military Households)
Help
Kerry in Vietnam 49%
Bush in National Guard 21%
Obstacle
Kerry in Vietnam 5%
Bush in National Guard 11%
Doesn't matter
Kerry in Vietnam 43%
Bush in National Guard 66%
George W. Bush's National Guard experience is viewed differently. 66 percent of voters living in military households say Bush's National Guard experience doesn't matter that much. One in five says his experience makes him a more effective president, while 11 percent view Bush's National Guard experience as an obstacle.
CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED, ONE YEAR LATER
It has been one year since the Bush Administration declared major combat ended in Iraq, and in that time, some views on Iraq, the direction of the country, and the President's job performance have dropped considerably.
Yet views of the economy -- which, unlike the Iraq war, loomed as a potential obstacle to the President's re-election one year ago - have risen in that time.
ONE YEAR LATER
Bush job approval
Now 46%
One year ago 67%
Bush approval on Iraq
Now 41%
One year ago 74%
Bush approval on handling terrorism
Now 60%
One year ago 79%
Bush tried enough diplomacy with Iraq
Now 34%
One year ago 67%
Bush too quick to use force in Iraq
Now 61%
One year ago 31%
U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq going well
Now 38%
One year ago 72%
U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq going badly
Now 60%
One year ago 24%
Iraqis are grateful to U.S.
Now 38%
One year ago 53%
Iraqis are resentful of U.S.
Now 48%
One year ago 26%
Iraq war improved U.S. image in Arab world
Now 10%
One year ago 34%
Made image worse
Now 71%
One year ago 44%
Iraq war major part of war on terror
Now 38%
One year ago 53%
Iraq war separate from war on terror
Now 45%
One year ago 30%
Believe Saddam involved in 9/11
Now 39%
One year ago 53%
Iraq was an immediate threat
Now 32%
One year ago 58%
Iraq could have been contained
Now 48%
One year ago 32%
U.S. going in right direction
Now 36%
One year ago 56%
U.S. on wrong track
Now 55%
One year ago 36%
Believe U.S. economy is good
Now 55%
One year ago 44%
Bush approval on economy
Now 39%
One year ago 42%
This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1,042 adults, interviewed by telephone April 23-27, 2004. The sample included 856 registered voters. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the samples of registered voters and all adults. Error for subgroups may be higher.