Poll: Bush, Gore Hold Leads

The latest CBS News poll shows John McCain gaining momentum nationally, although nowhere near enough to come close to Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who continues to lead the Republican pack by a large margin.

Among the Democrats, there has been little change in the past month. Gore continues to lead Bradley for his party's nomination, but Bush, the Republican frontrunner, leads both Gore and Bradley in hypothetical fall contests.

THE REPUBLICANS

In the last month, Senator John McCain has made inroads with Republican primary voters nationwide, nearly doubling his support for the Republican nomination. But despite this increase for McCain, Bush's lead for the Republican nomination is still overwhelming. Sixty-four percent of Republican primary voters favor Bush, and just 16 percent would like to see McCain receive the nomination. Forbes and Keyes each get 4 percent, Bauer gets 2 percent, and Hatch 1 percent.

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

McCain fares particularly well among those primary voters who are paying close attention to the campaign. Among these voters, 27 percent say they would like to see McCain receive the nomination, while 60 percent favor Bush.

At present, just 25 percent of Republican primary voters say they ARE paying a lot of attention to the campaign, and just 35 percent say their minds are made up about who they support for the nomination.

Overall voter views of Republican candidate John McCain have become increasingly favorable. Twenty-two percent of voters now view McCain positively, up from 14 percent in November. While many Democrats as yet have formed no opinion of McCain, those who have are more favorable than not.

MCCAIN'S MILITARY EXPERIENCE

McCain's military service and POW status are viewed by the public as an asset. Fifty-two percent of Americans think these experiences would help him be an effective president, and only 6 percent think his military past would be an obstacle. Seventy percent of Republican primary voters see his service as an asset. In recent weeks, some have questioned McCain's emotional and mental stability as a result of his time spent as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, but these rumors don't appear to be having much impact on the voters.

Among those who have served in the military themselves -- representing 21 percent of Republican primary voters -- 75 percent think it is important for a president to have served in the military, including 37 percent who think it is very important. Sixty-five percent of Americans who have served themselves think McCain's military background would help him be a good president. Sixty percent of all Americans think it is important for a president to have served in the military.

VIEW MCCAIN'S MILITARY EXPERIENCE AS AN ASSET

THE DEMOCRATS

On the Democratic side, Bradley (who started off better known than McCain) hasn't made much of an impact against Al Gore in the last month. Nationally, 53 percent of Democratic primary voters favor Gore, and 28 percent favor Bradley. The contest had narrowed in late September, before the shakeup in the Gore campaign and the campaign's move to Tennessee, but widened again in November.

DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

There has been little change as well in overall voter opinion of the two Democrats in recent weeks.

Democratic voters nationally are even less likely than Republicans to have focused on the race - just 16 percent are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, and 29 percent say their minds are made up.

PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST

George W. Bush continues to lead both Democratic candidates in the contest for the presidency among registered voters. Now, Bush leads Al Gore by 12 points and Bill Bradley by 16 points. Although Gore narrowed the margin between himself and Bush in November, Gore has not been able to narrow it again this month. Bush's lead over Bradley, although wider than it was in November, is not as large as the 22 point advantage he held in late October.

THE GENERAL ELECTION VOTE

The Democratic candidates fare much better when paired with John McCain as the Republican candidate, although it appears that as McCain becomes better known he gains support. Bradley's lead over McCain has declined and Gore's has disappeared in the last month. Bradley continues to beat McCain by 41 percent to 33 percent, a much smaller margin than his lead in November. Voters now split almost evenly between Gore and McCain, 42 percent to 40 percent, whereas last month Gore beat McCain handily by 47 percent to 36 percent.

Bradley's lead over McCain has declined among voters who identify themselves as Independents. In November, Bradley beat McCain among Independents by 43 percent to 27 percent; now, he beats him by only five points, 35 percent to 30 percent.

The presidential election appears much closer when voters are asked a generic question about which PARTY they would support, with no candidates named. Then, as in other recent polls, the contest appears neck and neck.

WOULD VOTE FOR PRESIDENT:

And, when it comes to the U.S. House of Representatives, there continues to be a clear Democratic edge: 44 percent favor the Democrats, 36 percent the Republicans.

WOULD VOTE FOR HOUSE:

ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT TO ADDRESS

The issue of campaign finance reform has emerged as a hotly contested topic among the leading presidential candidates, with Senators John McCain and Bill Bradley favoring reform, and Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore supporting the status quo. Despite the debate among the candidates, very few Americans consider campaign finance reform as the most important issue they want the government to address. Just 1 percent say it is, a number that has remained consistent over the past few months.

More important to the public are such things as health care, volunteered by 12 percent, and Social Security and Medicare, volunteered by 9 percent. Taxes (7 percent) education and the budget (6 percent each), and a number of other problems, including crime and poverty.

MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FOR GOVERNMENT

REFORM PARTY CANDIDATES

Voters' views of possible Reform Party presidential candidates remain extremely negative. In this poll, fewer than one in ten voters has a favorable view of Pat Buchanan, and 51 percent hold a negative opinion of him. Similarly, 7 percent of voters have a positive view of Donald Trump, while 69 percent have a negative opinion of him. Wealthier and better educated voters hold particularly negative opinions of both Trump and Buchanan, and views of both these men overall are unchanged since last month.

Former presidential candidate Ross Perot is seen favorably by 16 percent of voters, but nearly two-thirds have a negative opinion of him. More have a negative view of Perot now than did so before the 1996 presidential election.

OPINIONS OF...