Perusing The Polls
As the clock winds down to Super Tuesday, the pollsters are busy trying to predict the outcome in the close GOP race between Gov. George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain. Here's a collection of the latest preliminary state pollings.
The GOP primary race in California appears to be turning in Bush's favor. Bush's lead over McCain among Republican voters is a commanding 54-26, according to a Reuters/MSNBC poll released Monday. The results from the open ballot are more surprising: Vice President Al Gore leads with 31 percent, ahead of Bush with 26 and McCain with 20. Former Sen. Bill Bradley trails with 10 percent.
It is of symbolic importance that McCain is now trailing Bush in the popular vote in California. A solid Bush victory in the popular vote would invalidate McCain's argument that he would have a better chance of winning the general election come November.
The most recent polls in New York show George W. Bush and John McCain locked in a tight race on the Republican side. These same polls also show Al Gore maintaining his solid lead over Bill Bradley among the state's Democrats.
On the Republican side, Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion poll has Bush at 48 percent with McCain at 43 percent among likely GOP primary voters, a statistical tie given the survey's margin of error. Marist's telephone poll of 202 likely GOP voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Gore led Bradley 59 percent to 34 percent in the poll.
Two polls released Monday in Ohio show George W.Bush with a big lead among Ohio Republicans heading into that state's Tuesday primary.
A poll published by The Cleveland Plain Dealer shows Bush leading McCain 56 percent to 32 percent among likely Republican voters.
A survey of registered Republicans by The Columbus Dispatch shows Bush ahead 61 percent to 32 percent.
However, McCain has been winning the independent vote in other states, so the Ohio race might be tighter when independents are taken into account.
The race in Connecticut remains very close. Though previous polls saw McCain leading by a slim margin, a Reuters/MSNBC poll released Monday has Bush leading by a 45-38 percent margin.
Otherwise, New Egland has emerged as McCain's stronghold. He leads in Massachusetts, where a University of Massachusetts tracking poll finds him with 59 percent of the likely voters in the GOP primary, as compared to Bush's 29 percent. McCain is expected to carry Vermont, Rhode Island and Maine as well.
Bush seems to have sewn up the South. Bush leads McCain in Georgia by 56-27 percent; in Missouri by 48-34 percent and in Maryland by 53-31 percent, according to the Reuters/MSNBC poll released Monday.