Papal Conclave: It's Ultra-Secret

It will be the largest group of cardinals ever assembled to choose a new pope: almost 200 princes of the church, traveling to the Vatican from all its outposts around the world.

Inside the Sistine Chapel, under the frescoes of Michelangelo, about 120 of them, "cardinal electors," are eligible to vote. The rules go back more than 800 years: the first to receive a two-thirds majority gets the job. And once their conclave begins, the cardinals won't be seen until a new pope's been elected.

As CBS News Correspondent Richard Roth reports, conclave – a Latin word meaning locked with a key - pretty much describes the isolation in which the cardinals will cast their ballots.

They'll have no newspapers, TV or radio, nor any phones, pagers or e-mail. The conclave will be locked away from outside contact. The Sistine Chapel and cardinal's dormitory will be electronically swept for listening devices.

"It's secret. It's ultra ultra secret and there are no leaks, says Margaret Hebblethwaite, who write son Vatican affairs. "I don't think there will be any leaks. And so we'll all be speculating without really knowing."

The Rev. Tom Reese, author of "Inside The Vatican," thinks the cardinals are looking for someone in their late 60s or early 70s. "I don't think they'll elect another young man, because that would mean another long papacy just like the one we've just concluded," he said. "There's no one who really stands out as, as the cardinal that everyone is talking about and that everybody wants to see elected."

And with such a big group, geographically diverse, it could also be a long one. White smoke from the burning of ballots will be the signal a new pope's been elected. The election of Karol Wojtyla, Polish, not Italian, broke tradition. John Paul internationalized the papacy. The men picking his successor may think it's time to look closer to home.

And among potential successors, there are several Italians. Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re is a powerful and respected Vatican insider. "If there is a leading Italian candidate, it is probably Cardinal Re," says Father Reese.

And there's Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, formerly cardinal of Genoa, who was appointed to the Archdiocese of Milan by John Paul. It's an unusual move, seen as a promotion for a man who shares many of John Paul's orthodox views.

"Tetazmanzi is the other Italian who I think has got a very good chance," says Hebblethwaite.

As bishop of Rome, John Paul made Cardinal Camilo Ruini his made this man his vicar, with responsibility for overseeing all the churches of Rome. So, as Father Reese says, "he's clearly someone who had the trust and confidence of John Paul II."

Church experts think the man who follows in John Paul's footsteps probably won't come from Eastern Europe, although Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schonborn does have Slavic roots, and is still considered a contender.

If there is one "safe" prediction, it's probably this: the next pope won't be from the United States. Call it the stigma of the superpower, but the fact is, America's commanding role in the world probably makes it impossible for an American cardinal to win election in a papal conclave.

"If an American got elected, a lot of third world agitators would say, 'Oh, yeah, the CIA fixed the election' or 'Wall Street bought the election,'" says Reese.

And the taint of child abuse in the priesthood no doubt tips the scales more against any U.S. candidate.

But the church could look to South America, where almost a fifth of the voting cardinals live. Colombia's Dario Castrillon Hoyos is a possible contender, and so is Honduras' Archbishop Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga. When Rodriguez was made a cardinal, news had gone around the world within a few days that this could be a future pope.

And for the first time there's talk of a pope from Africa. Says Reese, "We could even see a cardinal elected from the third world, uh a man of color, as the pope of the Catholic Church." Cardinal Francis Arinze is the man they talk about. The son of a Nigerian tribal chief, he converted to Catholicism as a boy and now he's the chief of liturgy for the Catholic Church.

It is a political event because in the election of a new pope, there will be coalitions built, and every cardinal is a potential candidate. But as they vote, what will decide this contest, according to church teaching, is divine inspiration.

A few days after the cardinals announce their decision, the new pope will be formally, with elaborate ceremony, installed at the Vatican. The clearest guide we have to what will take place then is the installation of John Paul II himself on Oct. 22, 1978.

Here's how CBS News Correspondent Jerry Bowen reported the story then:

"More than a quarter of a million people gathered in St. Peter's Square to witness the start of the ministry of John Paul II, a celebration marked by its international flavor and, at times, informality. There were thousands of pilgrims from Poland, some dressed in native costume, and banners in the square, held by Lebanese seeking peace for their homeland. Most of Europe's royalty was present, as were diplomats and politicians of the West and the East, including Henry Jablonski, the president of communist Poland.

"Like his predecessor, John Paul ruled out a crown and received, instead, the pallium, a wool stole covered with crosses. One-hundred and twelve cardinals of the church walked to the papal throne to give the 58-year-old pontiff the kiss of obedience. But when the Polish primate, Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski, approached, John Paul rose to embrace him, and finally kissed his hand - a sign of respect for the senior prelate.

"In a strong, at times forceful, voice that echoed across the massive square, the pontiff, in his homily, made a plea for religious freedom, asking governments to open their boundaries, economic and political systems, to Christ, so that he can serve mankind. Most of his address was in Italian, but in a symbolic gesture to Catholics in the Soviet bloc, he spoke in Russian, Czech, Ukranian, Lithuanian and Polish - asking for their prayers. He also spoke a half-dozen other languages, including English.

"As priests fanned out to the tens of thousands in St. Peter's to give communion, another small line of the faithful, mostly from Poland, received communion from the new pontiff. And unlike his predecessor, who wanted to reach out to the crowd but was restrained by papal assistants, John Paul II walked boldly down the sloping steps of the basilica, at the end of the Mass, to bless a woman in a wheelchair and a score of other pilgrims who pushed to get near him.

"Moments later, a bouquet was thrown from the crowd and a young boy picked it up, faltering between the stern wave-off of a papal aide and the beckoning of the pontiff.

"It had been a precedent-breaking installation ceremony, punctuated at times by emotion and surprise - a celebration that tens of thousands simply refused to leave. And shortly after the more-than-three-hour service had ended, Pope John Paul appeared again, this time at his apartment window with a special message for the young people in the square below. 'You are the future of the world,' he told them. 'You are the hope of the church. You are my hope.'

"The crowd responded with enthusiastic and continuous applause, until the pontiff said, 'We have to finish. It's time for lunch. Even for a pope!'"