Pakistan Election Brings Uncertainty
By CBS News' Farhan Bokhari, reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan.
Pakistan's new government will stay the course in the war on terror but friction between U.S.-backed President Pervez Musharraf and the newly elected opposition parliament could dilute its focus, analysts and senior diplomats said Wednesday.
As negotiations continued between leaders of the two largest opposition parties to emerge victorious in Monday's elections, security officials renewed warnings of plans by al Qaeda and the Taliban to attack prominent politicians - an indication of the very real security threat still facing the country.
Analysts told CBS News that a new government led by parties opposed to Musharraf may quickly run into friction with the head of state.
According to initial results, slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) won the largest share of the votes, followed closely by the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), led by another former premier, Nawaz Sharif. Both parties are fiercely critical of Musharraf.
"If such a confrontational situation emerges you will have the new government wasting its energies fighting the president rather than being focused on fighting terrorism, which is the key to Pakistan's future" said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a prominent Pakistan scholar on defense and security who presently teaches at John Hopkins University.
"You can't have infighting and also a strong focus on meeting major challenges," he added.
President Bush Wednesday praised Musharraf for "doing exactly what he said he was going to do," by holding fair elections in Pakistan. Mr. Bush added that he hoped the new government would work closely with the United States, and called the opposition parties' triumph a "victory for the people of Pakistan."
Fear of election-day suicide attacks prompted the deployment of about 80,000 military troops across the country. While at least 22 people were reportedly killed in election related violence, the nation was spared the devastating suicide attacks that have become hallmarks of Islamic extremists in the region.
By standards of the developing world, the number of election-day casualties "were not alarmingly high, which is fortunate", a senior Pakistani security official told CBS News. He made the remarks on condition of anonymity because he's not authorized to speak to the media.
The secular opposition parties routed politicians from the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q), the former ruling party considered close to Musharraf. At least 23 ministers from the PML-Q's former 75 member cabinet lost in their constituencies - a harsh rebuke of Musharraf's policies.
Concern over friction between Musharraf and the new legislators is driven partly by the troubled history between the president and Sharif, who was ousted from the premiership in October 1999 when Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup.
On Tuesday, he called on Musharraf to step down from the presidency in light of the resounding defeat at the polls, saying the nation had issued its "verdict". Musharraf refused said Wednesday that he would not resign his post.
The PPP has been in negotiations with Musharraf since July last year, when Musharraf for the first time held a face-to-face meeting with the party's late leader Benazir Bhutto. However, Bhutto's assassination in December was followed by widespread allegations from PPP leaders that the government was involved in her killing.
Musharraf's government flatly denied the claims, blaming Islamic militants for the gun and bomb attack that killed Bhutto during a campaign procession, but the allegations greatly increased tensions between Musharraf and the PPP leadership.
Monday's elections also significantly reduced the power of Islamic hardline politicians who oppose Pakistan's support of the U.S.-led war on terror.
The main Islamic political coalition, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), won just three of the 272 constituencies to the lower house of parliament, the national assembly. That result was a dramatic drop in support from 2002, when the MMA won 59 seats.
A senior western diplomat, however, warned the MMA's political defeat did not mark a permanent end to the role of Islamic extremists in Pakistani politics, especially if the new government becomes unstable early in its tenure.
"If there is infighting between the next prime minister and the ruling party, all against Musharraf, then we could be in for a turbulent period," one Western ambassador in Islamabad told CBS News on condition of anonymity.
"Today the Islamists have been rejected, but tomorrow they could be back through the ballot box. Ultimately, the decisive factor will be... the performance of the next government, and relations with President Musharraf will be decisive," the diplomat added.
Analysts warned that the long-term prognosis for the country also depends on relations between the civilian government and the top military commanders.
The Pakistani military has ruled the country for more than half its existence as an independent state. After the 1999 coup Musharraf remained the head of the military while also serving as president.
He stepped down from his Army post in October last year amid pressure from many sectors of society demanding a separation of government and military - a separation which Musharraf promised to return to the country soon after he took power.
He appointed General Ashfaq Kiyani as the new Army Chief of Staff. The military's influence runs deep in Pakistani society, from overt intervention, to accumulation of control on some of the largest business enterprises.
Marika Vicziany, professor of Asian studies at Australia's Monash University said: "Without a permanent resolution to this conflict between the military and the civilians, you can't have long term stability in Pakistan."
"Pakistan will begin to progress politically, economically and socially when the military's role in areas other than its professional work begins to come to an end," she added.
By Farhan Bokhari