Oscars Forecast
No single movie stands out as a clear front-runner at Sunday's Academy Awards.
That makes it even more exciting to predict the winners.
On The Early Show Friday, People magazine Assistant Managing Editor and The Early Show entertainment contributor Jess Cagle did just that, along with Jessica Shaw, senior editor of Entertainment Weekly magazine.
They not only predicted who will win, they told who they think should take home statuettes!
THE NOMINEES:
CAGLE'S PICKSPhotos: Pre-Oscar Parties In Full Swing
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: "BABEL"
Has more nominations than any other Bet Picture nominee, which indicates that the Oscar voters like it a lot. As one Academy voter says, "It feels like the Best Picture." But really, this category is wide open. "Little Miss Sunshine" and "The Departed" are both strong contenders.
SHOULD WIN: "THE QUEEN"
All of the movies in this category are great accomplishments, so it's hard to say one is better than another. But this was my favorite. A triumph of writing and acting.
BEST ACTOR
WILL WIN: FOREST WHITAKER
He has won all the major critics' awards, and people really like him. Peter O'Toole is a threat, though. He's been in L.A. campaigning the last couple of weeks and he's got sentiment on his side. (This is his eighth nomination, and he hasn't won.)
SHOULD WIN: WILL SMITH
He carried "Pursuit of Happyness" on his shoulders. It wasn't just great for a movie star — mature, confident, without tricks or ticks. It was a great performance by any measure.
BEST ACTRESS
WILL WIN: HELEN MIRREN
Won every major critics award. Can't be stopped. Brilliant.
SHOULD WIN: HELEN MIRREN
Took what little bits we know about Queen Elizabeth II and fleshed them out into an amazing character. Fascinating. The performance leaves you wanting more. You wish Mirren and "The Queen" would become a TV series. Or at least get a sequel.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: EDDIE MURPHY
He's the front-runner. Won the Screen Actors Guild award and the Golden Globe.
SHOULD WIN: EDDIE MURPHY
Riveting. Not just because this is so surprising coming from Eddie Murphy. He manages to convey a big meltdown without ever going over the top. It's a really dramatic performance but never melodramatic, and that's quite an accomplishment.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: JENNIFER HUDSON.
She won the Golden Globe and the SAG award, and she probably can't be stopped. Voting for her is a way of voting for "Dreamgirls," which Oscar voters like but didn't nominate as Best Picture. Her rendition of "I'm Telling You" is what will win it for her.
SHOULD WIN: ADRIANA BARRAZA
Technically, she's the best. The Mexican-American housekeeper whose life falls apart because of one well-meant mistake. The most accomplished performance of this category. But that's not to take anything away from Jennifer Hudson. Seeing Hudson win will be the highlight of the night.
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: MARTIN SCORSESE
Seems to be his year. Everybody you talk to in Hollywood believes this is the year it could finally happen for him. This is his eighth Oscar nomination and his sixth in this category. "The Departed" being his most commercially successful film to date should help him. He deserved it long ago ... like the year (1990) Scorsese was nominated for "GoodFellas" and lost to Kevin Costner, director of "Dances with Wolves."
SHOULD WIN: PAUL GREENGRASS
"United 93" was a singular accomplishment, a film unlike any other, and probably the most amazing directing achievement this year. However, I don't begrudge Scorsese this award one bit.
SHAW'S PICKS
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: "BABEL"
It's a weird year, nothing is a given. "Babel" is definitely a front-runner. The others are each just sort of lacking in something. "Sunshine" is great but small, while "Babel" has scope. "The Departed" isn't the greatest Scorsese picture ever, so it'll probably give Martin the Best Director Oscar, but it can't get Best Picture, too. "Iwo Jima," it's a great accomplishment, and it got a lot of critical praise, but it never really took off. "The Queen" doesn't have what "Babel" has, as in being a huge epic movie. "Babel" is just grander.
SHOULD WIN: "THE DEPARTED"
I think it's incredible, one of Scorsese's best movies. "Babel" had some flaws in it. It's big, but it's Scorsese's year. I think the movie is incredible — the last 20 minutes is great, exciting filmmaking.
BEST ACTOR
WILL WIN: FOREST WHITAKER
He was completely amazing. Best actor awards are funny. Sometimes the movies aren't so flawless, like "Capote," not best movie of all time, but a performance can transcend the film. Like with "The Last King of Scotland" and Whitaker, the movie has flaws, but you can't take eyes off the star. When he's not there, you think he just has to come back. He was terrifying, relate-able, beyond incredible.
SHOULD WIN: RYAN GOSLING
I'm very happy if Forest wins, but I think it's nice to give a vote of confidence to a great young performer like Gosling. He should win because he's great, and it would help him give us more greatness in future years. "Half Nelson" is a difficult movie to watch, but Gosling rises above it and, again, his performance really transcends the movie.
BEST ACTRESS
WILL WIN: HELEN MIRREN
Does anyone not think so? I'd be happy with Helen, Meryl or Judi winning. But Helen will win. She became "The Queen." With a worse performance, the movie would have fallen apart. She's incredible.
SHOULD WIN: MERYL STREEP
I was going back and forth between the three of them. Any of the three of them should win. All amazing. Sometimes it's important to award comedic performances. Sometimes that's the hardest thing to pull off, to have something funny with depth. Meryl gave the role so much more. The movie itself actually hit a lot of "best" lists because of Meryl. She gave the movie resonance. Some might think it's a supporting role, but because it's Meryl Streep, we don't think of it as supporting.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: EDDIE MURPHY
It's funny. A lot of people thought "Dreamgirls" would do better with the bigger awards, but people are rooting for Eddie. He's done so much comedy, but he became this character. It's tragic. When you first see him, you think, is that Eddie? He completely morphed into this other character. It makes you not want to see him as "Norbit" anymore. People think he is so underappreciated. People thought he didn't have the chops to be a "real" actor. But Eddie proved them wrong.
SHOULD WIN: JACKIE EARLE HALEY
I love that movie, "Little Children." I just watched it again. It was such a subtle performance he turned in. It's easy to say Jackie should win, because Eddie is so going to win, it's not like there's any real competition. But there's something about Jackie's performance that is so completely heartbreaking and small in the movements. It could have been so creepy, any other actor could have overplayed it. But for me, it's the performance of the year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: JENNIFER HUDSON
She's definitely going to win. It was a Cinderella story, but that story faded into the background a long time ago. I have to say, the scenes where she was off-screen, you want to bring her back. She is that movie. There are great things about the movie, but even more than Eddie, the most important thing about "Dreamgirls" is Jennifer. You feel like you are watching a star being born. I'm an old, jaded journalist, and I'm in a screening, I was weeping during her scenes. How often do you see that?
SHOULD WIN: JENNIFER HUDSON
Abigail was great, but her time will come later. Abigail was fearless, to do that final dance. And Kikuchi was great. But there's no question, Jennifer was the most amazing, especially given the fact that she had never acted before.
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: MARTIN SCORSESE
It's his year. No way he's not going to win. It's a weird Oscar year. There's no Spielberg, nothing anyone is saying "this is it" about. You just have a lot of very strong front-runners. In the absence of clear winners, the Oscar will go to those who deserve it for other reasons. Marty's been waiting a long time.
SHOULD WIN: SCORSESE
For the reasons above.