On To The Main Event

By David Paul Kuhn,
CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

Sen. John Kerry essentially won his party's nomination with his commanding victories in Virginia and Tennessee Tuesday night. The Massachusetts senator has now won 12 of 14 contests so far; the remaining primaries and caucuses are cosmetic.

"We now know who the boxers in the ring are going to be," said Leon Panetta, former chief of staff for President Clinton. "This has now become a contest between the president and John Kerry. Kerry is going to be the fighter for the Democrats because he won the South tonight, which is the clearest indication that the Democrats now have a national candidate."

The New Englander's victories in the heart of Dixie left his two southern challengers with one question: Is it time to leave the race? For former Gen. Wesley Clark, the answer was yes.

"The mountain got too steep to climb," Clark communications director Matt Bennett told reporters late Tuesday night. The formal resignation will take place Wednesday at 2 p.m. in Little Rock, Ark. "The decision is final," Bennett added.

Clark's leaving the race was not a surprise as the returns came in. He advertised the longest in Tennessee and spent the most money there, literally banking his candidacy on a win in the Volunteer State, or at least a strong second.

But there was nothing strong about the general's showing in Tennessee, where he finished third behind Kerry and John Edwards. That, combined with a single-digit showing in Virginia, made it hard to imagine the Arkansan carrying on.

And he did not. Surprisingly, Clark made the decision to resign his candidacy after his campaign night speech. When he clearly fell behind Edwards, he spoke to his family and made the decision to resign his candidacy at about 11 p.m., according to his campaign.

"I would be a little surprised if Edwards stays on too," said Bill Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard. "He could take one more shot in Wisconsin, but Edwards has a promising future and I would think that the pressure now to fall-in behind the frontrunner would be great."

In the past, Edwards said he would go on even if he lost Tuesday's primaries. Hoping to lower expectations in the closing days, Edwards told the media that he expected to place second in Virginia and Tennessee – which he did, with about 25 percent of the vote in both states.

Throughout this campaign, the North Carolina senator called the South his backyard. Yet he lost in two states that border his own, one of which was the capital of the Confederacy, and the other, Tennessee, he once worked in.

"I think the two losses in Virginia and Tennessee spell an end to John Edwards' campaign," Virginia Democratic Party Chairman Kerry Donley said. "I think it is a serious blow to his campaign. He might be able to stay in it but he is going to have to get some wins," Donley added skeptically.

If Edwards cannot beat a "Massachusetts liberal" in Nashville or Richmond, it is hard to imagine how he can win in Las Vegas or Washington D.C. (the Nevada and D.C. caucuses are Saturday), or Milwaukee (the now not-so-pivotal Wisconsin primary is next Tuesday).

Kerry has now been successful in every region of the country, including the one where he was widely seen to be weakest.

"These two victories show that Kerry can win in the South, beating effectively two Southern candidates," Donley said. "I think it seals the deal."

Former front-runner Howard Dean did not compete in the Tuesday night states in order to focus on Wisconsin, where he will make his last stand, whether he admits it or not.

With 14 contests done, Dean has won none. Nevertheless, the doctor stays alive by his own volition, and by the emotional and financial support of dedicated Deaniacs.

"I think Kerry is going to crush Dean," Kristol said of the race in Wisconsin, a claim supported by the polls. "But in a way, this is good for Dean. There is always some buyers' remorse. There are always some votes for the candidate who is not the front-runner… but Kerry is the nominee, now he is virtually certain to be it.

"This has been a very good month for the Democrats. Republicans were over confident," the conservative pundit continued. "On the other hand, this reminds one of how much of a rollercoaster it is. In a month, Osama could have been captured, things could be going well in Iraq and Kerry could be answering questions about some special interest."

Absent a scandal, Kerry is the nominee in a dead heat against President George W. Bush, according to all polling. The most frontloaded primary season in modern American political history now sets the stage for what will be the longest general election.

"It looks like we are looking at eight months of really tough battle, one of the toughest we have seen in a long time," said Panetta, who left after the first Clinton term. "I think the Democrats have a very strong candidate with John Kerry but anytime you have an incumbent president with the bully pulpit and $200 million, you don't start figuring out where the furniture is going to be in the White House."