Obama to supporters: Vote early, just like me
Near the end of his two-day campaign blitz through six swing states, President Obama today will make a pit stop in Chicago to cast his ballot in the presidential race. Mr. Obama will be the first sitting president to vote early in person, and in doing so he is aiming to set an example for his supporters. Both the president and rival Mitt Romney are racing through battleground states in the final weeks of the election seeking not just to win over voters but -- in states with early voting -- to convince them to vote before November 6.
Early voting has grown more popular in each recent election cycle, and this year should account for at least one third of the ballots cast, according to CBS News polling unit estimates. In 2008, when Mr. Obama decisively won a number of swing states, some polling experts said they knew he had won a week before the election because of early voting results.
Polls suggest a closer race this year, and that bears out in the early voting results available so far. While more Democrats have voted in a few key states, Republicans have the edge in others.
Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters Wednesday that Mr. Obama is "pounding the pavement" during his two-day trip "because he feels this is a pivotal time, and every single extra doorknob, every single extra phone call could make all the difference in what we think will be a razor-thin election." Early voting, she said, "is a big priority for us."
The Romney campaign, meanwhile, argues that its "unprecedented" on-the-ground efforts are producing impressive early voting results. While it may be behind in a number of states now, the campaign says it will gain ground.
"Past trends in Iowa, North Carolina, and Nevada show that Republicans turn out for early voting in greater numbers as we get closer to Election Day," Rick Wiley, political director for the Republican National Committee, said in a memo Wednesday. "We've seen that already in Iowa and Ohio, and we are seeing the same trend develop again this year in North Carolina and Nevada, meaning the Republican advantage will grow in coming days. Moreover, our superior ground game and organization will continue to drive Republicans to vote early right up to Election Day."
So far, according to data released Wednesday, Republicans have an edge in two key states: Colorado and Florida. While states have yet to tally the actual votes, they do, when possible, report on turnout by party affiliation.
In Colorado, as of Wednesday morning, more than 325,000 early ballots had been returned, the Colorado Secretary of State's office reported, with nearly 39 percent belonging to registered Republicans and about 37 percent coming from Democrats. Another 24 percent came from voters affiliated with neither major party. As many as 80 percent of Colorado voters are expected to cast their ballots early, according to CBS News estimates. Absentee voting started on Oct. 15, and in-person early voting started this past Monday, Oct. 22.
In Florida, meanwhile, more than 925,000 people had voted by Wednesday morning, the Miami Herald reported -- already accounting for about 10 percent of the likely Florida electorate. Nearly 45 percent of those voters were Republican, while about 39 percent were Democrat and 16 percent were neither. While Republicans have a strong lead now, Democrats are expected to gain some momentum on Saturday, when in-person early voting starts. Absentee voting started on Oct. 2. CBS News predicts about 50 percent of Florida voters will cast a ballot before Election Day.
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Republicans claim their early voting efforts will ultimately prove more valuable than the Democrats' efforts because of the voters they're targeting.
"While many of the Democrat ballots cast come from high propensity voters who would vote regardless, the Republican turnout operation has been focused on getting low propensity voters who would otherwise not vote to cast ballots early," Wiley said in his memo. "As such, turnout for the Romney-Ryan ticket on Election Day will remain as strong as expected."
For now, however, Democrats have a recorded edge in ballots cast in Nevada, Iowa and North Carolina.
More than 214,000 ballots have been cast in Nevada, the state reported Wednesday, with more than 46 percent coming from Democrats and about 37 percent from Republicans. About 60 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots early in the Silver State, where absentee voting started on Oct. 17 and in-person voting started Oct. 20.
The Obama campaign boasted of their lead Wednesday. "When you look at early vote in Nevada," campaign senior adviser David Plouffe argued, "I wouldn't be surprised if Governor Romney's last trip to Nevada was this week, because it doesn't look good for him. And I think in an honest moment they will say that themselves."
The Republican Party, meanwhile, pointed out that its share of early and absentee votes cast is greater than its share of registered voters. Thirty-six percent of registered Nevada voters are Republicans.
In Iowa, the state reported Tuesday, more than 542,000 absentee ballots have been requested and more than 376,000 have been turned in. Among those ballots cast, more than 46 percent came from Democrats and more than 31 percent were from Republicans. While that's a significant lead, Republicans point out that in 2008, Democrats led by almost 24 points in early voting. (The president won the state by about ten points.) Early voting started in Iowa on Sept. 27, and 35 percent of voters are expected to turn in ballots early.
More than 817,000 voters in North Carolina have returned ballots, the state reported Wednesday, with more than 51 percent from Democrats and about 30 percent from Republicans. About 50 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots early in North Carolina, where absentee voting started Sept. 7 and in-person voting started Oct. 18. Polls suggest Romney has the edge in the state, which Mr. Obama won narrowly four years ago.
Until Election Day, it will be impossible to know whether the early ballots are going to Romney or Mr. Obama. Until then, however, both campaigns will be spinning the numbers and citing specific metrics to make it appear as if their side has the advantage.
In Ohio, for instance, Republicans claim they're outperforming their share of voter registration. Democrats, meanwhile, say that more votes have been cast so far from precincts that Mr. Obama won in 2008 than from precincts that voted for John McCain. In Ohio, however -- like Virginia and Wisconsin -- voters do not register by party.
