Obama, Romney take the global stage: What to expect
(CBS News) When it comes to foreign policy, both President Obama and Mitt Romney may very well want to adjust the narrative of recent weeks. At two international forums in New York City this week, both presidential candidates may have the opportunity to do so.
After days of turmoil in the Middle East that's raised new questions about Mr. Obama's strategy abroad, the president will deliver remarks at the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday. His speech gives him the opportunity to defend his foreign policy record and highlight his accomplishments. Off stage, the administration will engage with other U.N. members on a number of daunting issues, including the ongoing bloodshed in Syria, Iran's nuclear ambitions, turmoil in the Middle East and stability in Afghanistan.
That same day, the president addresses the Clinton Global Initiative, also in New York City. Mitt Romney will also deliver a speech at the forum on Tuesday. The Republican presidential candidate has the chance to recalibrate his campaign message after some perceived missteps, such as his response to the crisis in Libya, and campaign distractions like the recording of his remarks at a private fundraiser. Given that the event is hosted by one of Mr. Obama's strongest surrogates, former President Bill Clinton, Romney will also have the opportunity to dial down the partisan rancor that both parties have fueled and take a statesmanlike tone.
A more somber time, a more pragmatic president
When Mr. Obama addresses his foreign counterparts at the U.N. this week, he will face some difficult realities that didn't exist last year.
"It's going to be more of a somber appearance, at a somber time," Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CBSNews.com.
The current turmoil in the Muslim world -- and the recent death of the U.S. ambassador to Libya -- stand in stark contrast to the hopeful tone Mr. Obama struck almost exactly one year ago, when he hailed the U.N.'s intervention in Libya. "This is how the international community is supposed to work," he said, "nations standing together for the sake of peace and security, and individuals claiming their right."
"Fast forward 365 days, and you've got a much more daunting, particularly regional, picture there," Patrick said.
On top of that, Patrick said, there will be some notable absences at this year's general assembly -- specifically, China's Hu Jintao and Russia's Vladimir Putin will be not be there -- underscoring how difficult it will be for the U.N. to make real progress on any of the pressing issues before them.
By certain measurements, international relations have undeniably deteriorated during the Obama administration, Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group risk-management firm, told CBSNews.com.
"You can debate whether the economy has improved under the Obama administration. You cannot have the debate on the Middle East," he said. "It's gotten dramatically worse. You cannot have the debate on U.S.-China relations -- they've gotten worse."
At the same time, Bremmer said, it's debatable whether things could be any better for the U.S.-- under a Romney administration or any other American leader.
"All of those have been managed reasonably well by Obama and [Secretary of State Hillary] Clinton," Bremmer said. "The U.S. has reduced its risk, the problems are increasingly other country's problems."
Furthermore, "while Romney has been able to hit him on tone," he continued, "on actual policy substance, it's really hard to differentiate" between the two candidates -- whether the subject is troop levels in Afghanistan, intervention in Syria, or pushback against China.
With that in mind, it's unlikely the president will take any serious risks in his speech. The president will likely note the United States' more assertive posture in the Asia Pacific region, Bremmer said, and will likely address the Middle East turmoil with "the kind of speech you'd expect to hear the U.N. include, which will mean a lot of condemnation and no consequences."
"At the end of the speech, you're going to see a president who's clearly very fluid on international issues," Bremmer said. "He is much more pragmatic on a lot of issues, especially dealing with China and the Middle East."
The crisis in Syria will be a difficult subject for Mr. Obama to broach, particularly after launching an initiative to prevent mass atrocities. Mr. Obama is likely to "castigate China and Russia for failing to step up to the plate to try to end the bloodshed in Syria," Patrick said. "He will probably put the ball back in their court, or at least try to."
As for Iran's nuclear ambitions, Mr. Obama is unlikely to draw any "red lines" that would lead to military action, Patrick said, but "will have to try to make crystal clear where he stands on the issue."
Both Bremmer and Patrick were pessimistic about the U.N. making any real progress this week on slowing Iran's nuclear ambitions or curbing the crisis in Syria.
A message for American voters
Nevertheless, Patrick said Mr. Obama will have to make the case to an American audience that the United States' engagement with the U.N. has "paid off."
While voters may be disconcerted by headlines coming out of the Middle East, Patrick said Mr. Obama "can tell a reasonably good story" about the U.S.-U.N. partnership that's resulted in reduced troop levels in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as about U.S.'s efforts to help turn around the U.N. Human Rights Council.
Mr. Obama, Patrick said, could take Romney's criticism that the U.S. has been bogged down by multilateral engagement and turn it on its head. "The president has the opportunity to suggest that the U.S. is exceptional as a leader," he said. "And in that regard, the U.N. remains indispensable, as flawed as it is. In most cases, the U.N. expands rather than restricts U.S. sovereign interests."
At the annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative, Mr. Obama has yet another opportunity to tout his leadership -- and his alliance with a former president who remains incredibly popular.
Bill Clinton "is an extraordinary and unique figure," Bremmer said. "Even Republicans that oppose him strongly give him his due as a masterful political speaker and operator, and Obama wants to take advantage of that." Mr. Obama's speech, he said, "is another opportunity to show that Obama is the standard bearer of the Democratic party."
Mitt Romney, meanwhile, has the opportunity at the Clinton Global Initiative to lay out a responsible vision for American leadership that transcends politics.
"I would be surprised if he delivered a very partisan speech given the forum," Patrick said. "This will be a chance to see the softer side of Mitt Romney -- softer, but hard-headed."
Romney has proposed scaling back foreign aid but has resisted writing off the U.N., as some conservatives would prefer. Patrick said it's likely that Romney will endorse the idea of foreign aid while stressing that aid should only be given to partners who are ready to make good use of it. He may also point to the important role of charitable organizations in the private sector, as well as the success of Republican-led causes, such as former President George W. Bush's PEPFAR initiative.
Romney's remarks, however, may be harder to anticipate than Mr. Obama's, since the Republican candidate has been on the defensive in recent weeks. However, Bremmer said Romney would be well served to use his speech to bring the focus back to the economy.
Romney is slated to speak ahead of a session at the Clinton Global Initiative on "the future of food." Romney isn't obligated to address that subject, but the subject of making food widely and reliably accessible does offer the Republican candidate a segue into a discussion on the importance of building a strong middle class.
