North Korea's Kim Jong Un showing he's in charge, top intelligence officials say
Updated at 12:20 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON Top U.S. intelligence officials say North Korea's new leader is trying to show the world and his people that he is in charge, rather than trying to trigger military conflict.
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper tells Congress Thursday that his analysts believe North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is using rhetoric to gain recognition, and to maneuver the international community into concessions in future negotiations.
"His primary objective is to consolidate, affirm his power, and much of the rhetoric, in fact all of the belligerent rhetoric of late, I think is designed for both an internal and an external audience, but I think first and foremost it's to show that he is firmly in control in North Korea," Clapper said.
CIA director John Brennan says judging his actions is made tougher because he hasn't been in power long.
"We don't have an extended track record for him like we did with his father and grandfather," said Brennan. "So that is why we are watching this very closely, to see whether or not what he is doing is consistent with past pattern of North Korean behavior."
Clapper says the intelligence community believes the North would only use nuclear weapons to preserve the Kim regime, but says they do not know how the Kim regime defines that.
In an interview with CBS Radio News reporter Lucy Craft in Seoul, South Korea, Andrei Lankov, a history professor at Seoul's Kookmin University who recently published his observations in "The Real North Korea" (Oxford University Press), is confident that a second Korean War is not just unlikely but out of the question: "Zero-point-zero percent (chance)," he said flatly because of the regime's side-shaved, pudgy dictator Kim Jong Un.
"Why do we expect a young, fat boy, who is in love with his wife, who loves his palaces, his cars, his great food, why do we expect him to commit suicide by starting a war he has no chances to win - and, he knows it?" Lankov asked Craft rhetorically. "Starting a war which will get him and his entire family most likely killed in a matter of days, if not hours?"
"Daily Show" caricatures notwithstanding, Kim's minions are far from third-world buffoons, Lankov told Craft, and the theatrics waged in recent months have been planned and executed with care.
"We're dealing with a very smart regime, highly rational, Machiavellian," he told Craft. "These attempts to manufacture crisis usually pay off. They want to remind the world they exist and that they are dangerous. So it's quite rational. A cold-minded calculation."
Both Brennan and Clapper say China is best able to influence North Korea to tone down its rhetoric.
North Korea delivered a fresh round of rhetoric Thursday with claims it had "powerful striking means" on standby for a launch, while Seoul and Washington speculated that the country is preparing to test a medium-range missile during upcoming national celebrations.
CBS News correspondent Margaret Brennan, reporting from Seoul, said on "CBS This Morning" Thursday that conflicting reports say missile launchers have been moved into a firing position.
Brennan reports that, according to U.S. intelligence, North Korea is fully ready to fire off a missile called the Musudan, which is also known as the Taepodong-X. That type of weapon is capable of hitting U.S. military bases in Japan and Guam.
On Thursday, the Taiwanese government became the first country to tell its citizens not to travel to South Korea due to rising tensions, Brennan reports. On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to arrive in Seoul to meet with South Korean officials to try to calm those tensions.
On the streets of Pyongyang, meanwhile, North Koreans celebrated the anniversary of leader Kim's appointment to the country's top party post — one in a slew of titles collected a year ago in the months after father Kim Jong Il's death.
The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, a nonmilitary agency that deals with relations with South Korea, didn't elaborate on its warning of a strike. The statement is the latest in a torrent of warlike threats seen outside Pyongyang as an effort to raise fears and pressure Seoul and Washington into changing their North Korea policy.
A missile launch by North Korea would violate U.N. Security Council resolutions prohibiting the isolated nation from nuclear and ballistic missile activity, and mark a major escalation in Pyongyang's standoff with neighboring nations and the U.S.
North Korea already has been punished in recent months for launching a long-range rocket in December and conducting an underground nuclear test in February.
Analysts do not believe North Korea will stage an attack similar to the one that started the Korean War in 1950. But there are concerns that the animosity could spark a skirmish that could escalate into a serious conflict.
"North Korea has been, with its bellicose rhetoric, with its actions ... skating very close to a dangerous line," U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said in Washington on Wednesday. "Their actions and their words have not helped defuse a combustible situation."
Bracing for a launch, which officials said could take place at any time, Seoul deployed three naval destroyers, an early warning surveillance aircraft and a land-based radar system, a Defense Ministry official told The Associated Press in Seoul, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with department rules. Japan deployed PAC-3 missile interceptors around Tokyo.
But officials in Seoul played down security fears, noting that no foreign government has evacuated its citizens from either Korean capital.
"North Korea has continuously issued provocative threats and made efforts to raise tension on the Korean peninsula ... but the current situation is being managed safely and our and foreign governments have been calmly responding," Foreign Ministry spokesman Cho Tai-young told reporters Thursday.
The war talk is seen as a way for North Korea to draw attention to the precariousness of the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and to boost the military credentials of Kim.
The Korean War ended in 1953 with a truce, not a peace treaty, and the U.S. and North Korea do not have diplomatic relations.
For weeks, the U.S. and South Korea have staged annual military drills meant to show the allies' military might. North Korea condemns the drills as rehearsal for an invasion.
Citing the tensions, North Korea on Monday pulled more than 50,000 workers from the Kaesong industrial park, which combines South Korean technology and know-how with cheap North Korean labor. It was the first time that production was stopped at the decade-old factory park, the only remaining symbol of economic cooperation between the Koreas.
South Korea's point man on North Korea, Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae, urged Pyongyang to stop heightening tensions and to discuss the restart of operations in Kaesong.
In Pyongyang, meanwhile, there was no sense of panic. Across the city, workers were rolling out sod and preparing the city for a series of April holidays.
North Korean students put on suits and traditional dresses to celebrate Kim Jong Un's appointment as first secretary of the Workers' Party a year ago.
A flower show and art performances are scheduled over the next few days in the lead-up to the nations' biggest holiday, the April 15 birthday of North Korea founder Kim Il Sung, grandfather of the current leader.
No military parade or mass events were expected over the coming week, but North Korea historically uses major holidays to show off its military power, and analysts say Pyongyang could well mark the occasion with a provocative missile launch in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions barring the North from nuclear and missile activity.
"However tense the situation is, we will mark the Day of the Sun in a significant way," Kim Kwang Chon, a Pyongyang citizen, told The AP, referring to the April 15 birthday. "We will celebrate the Day of the Sun even if war breaks out tomorrow."
During last year's celebrations, North Korea failed in an attempt to send a satellite into space aboard a long-range rocket. The U.S. and its allies criticized the launch as a covert test of ballistic missile technology.
A subsequent test in December was successful, and that was followed by the country's third underground nuclear test on Feb. 12, possibly taking the regime closer to mastering the technology for mounting an atomic weapon on a missile.