What's the mortgage interest rate forecast for November 2024?
Mortgage interest rates and home prices have challenged house hunters in the last few years — forcing many Americans to delay their plans to buy. But September brought a shift when the Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in 2024. This helped push mortgage rates down for a short while, and more changes could be coming soon.
As the Fed prepares for its November meeting, buyers wonder if another rate cut will make their next home more affordable. Some have already jumped back into the market, while others are choosing to wait and watch.
We talked to three mortgage experts about their predictions for November's rates. Below, they discuss the forces shaping today's market and how you can make smart homebuying decisions in the coming months.
See what mortgage interest rate you could qualify for here.
What's the mortgage interest rate forecast for November 2024?
Mortgage experts see limited relief ahead, despite another Federal Reserve rate cut expected for November.
"I don't [forecast] rates dropping much. I'd expect them to stay above 6% unless we get a major shift in the economic data," says Josh Green, a mortgage loan officer at Barrett Financial Group.
At loanDepot, sales manager Debbie Calixto predicts a measured impact from the Fed's November meeting: "[We're expecting] a 25 basis point [cut], which may cause mortgage rates to [go down]."
United American Mortgage Corporation's mortgage loan officer, Dean Rathbun agrees, anticipating the Fed's quarter-point cut will "create downward pressure on long-term mortgage rates." However, Calixto thinks it's unlikely that the drop will be significant.
Explore your current mortgage rate options here.
Key factors shaping mortgage rates
According to experts, several factors shape mortgage rates — with the Federal Reserve's decisions and economic indicators playing central roles today:
Federal Reserve's actions
Recent Fed moves have surprised market watchers. Green expected the Fed's half-point rate cut would finally lower mortgage rates, but the opposite happened. He observes that despite the bond market having already priced in the Fed's cut, healthy economic data and employment numbers drove rates higher.
Calixto mentions that further relief may be on the horizon with the Fed expected to cut the Fed Funds Rate by an extra 125 to 150 basis points by the end of December 2025. This could bring 30-year fixed mortgage rates down to 4.5% to 5%.
However, she warns against waiting for rates to fall far in the short term. "The Fed may take a gradual approach to get there [since we've had encouraging] data [in] recent weeks," she notes.
Job market and inflation
Employment levels have remained surprisingly strong, defying Green's prediction that rising unemployment would help lower rates. He doesn't see much of a drop in rates assuming the job market stays strong.
This resilient job market coupled with stable inflation could lead to a "soft landing" — where the economy cools without tipping into recession. "The Fed could continue cutting rates slowly if the job market stays [healthy] and inflation [remains] low," Green points out. This is likely their preferred path as it wouldn't disrupt economic stability.
What this means for potential homebuyers
Election-year uncertainty may be slowing mortgage applications right now, but Calixto noticed an uptick in buyer activity after September's brief rate decline. "[This] shows the demand is there. When rates [decline] again, we anticipate the activity picking back up," she says.
Still, mortgage rates can be hard to predict because they fluctuate based on various economic conditions. Calixto advises considering whether you're ready to buy based on your family's most important factors. For example:
- Is the home in the right school district?
- Do the numbers fall within your sustainable budget?
- Does it have that swimming pool and backyard you're looking for?
Deciding based on this approach is better than waiting for mortgage rates to fall. It's worth moving forward if it's the right home.
Lenders anticipate rising home prices and demand once rates drop and buyers return to the market. This potential for increased competition is why Rathbun suggests acting sooner: "Buy now, before the bidding wars come back. You can always refinance the loan later if rates drop." Refinancing allows you to secure your dream home today while keeping the option to lower your monthly payments when rates fall.
The bottom line
Mortgage experts predict modest rate drops in November, so it may not make sense to keep sitting on the sidelines. Doing so could lead to missing out on your ideal home.
"Connect with a trusted mortgage professional now to learn what you qualify for," recommends Calixto. Starting with a pre-approval helps you understand your monthly payment options and closing costs, putting you in a position to act quickly when you find the right home.
