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Money Watch: Weekly Wrap

The Federal budget, disputes over state budgets and inflation dominated the financial news last week. For all the hand-wringing about those topics, not to mention unrest in the Middle East, stocks continued to march higher. The Dow has now rallied in 11 of the past 12 weeks; the S&P 500 has doubled from its financial crisis intra-day low of 666, though is about 15 percent from its all-time closing high of 1565 in October, 2007; and the NASDAQ is just a mere 0.9 percent from its October, 2007 multi-year high. Bruised tech investors will be quick to remind us that the NASDAQ remains over 40 percent lower than its all-time high of 5048, reached nearly 11 years ago on March 10, 2000.

  • DJIA: 12,391, up 0.9% on week, up 7% YTD (up 4.8% in past 3 weeks, highest close since 6/5/08)
  • S&P 500: 1343, up 1% on week, up 6.8% YTD (up 5.2% in past 3 weeks, highest close since 6/17/08)
  • NASDAQ: 2833, up 0.8% on week, up 6.8% YTD (up 5.4% in past 3 weeks, highest close since 10/31/07)
  • March Crude Oil: $86.20, up 0.7% on week
  • April Gold: $1388.60, up 2% (best week since week ending December 31, 2010)
Total bank failures for 2011 = 22 (4 new bank failures over weekend)

FACTOIDS OF THE WEEK: There will be a number of reports on housing this week, so here are some facts to keep in mind as we digest the data:

  • Nationally, house prices doubled between 2000-2006
  • Prices are now 31 percent below the peak
  • Weak sales plus ramped up foreclosure activity could spell lower prices. Some are expecting new post-bubble lows in the coming months. The MBA reports that 12.85 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q4 2010
  • Buyers need to prepare for a changed mortgage landscape: 20 percent down and a high credit score will get the best rates. 60 percent of conventional mortgages originated in 2010 had a FICO score of at least 780, compared to just 25 percent in 2005
  • Average 30-year rates = 5.12 percent with 0.85 points; average 15-year rates = 4.34 percent with 0.85 points
IN THE WEEK AHEAD: The highlights of the week include house prices, existing and new home sales; readings on consumer confidence/sentiment; and durable goods, which is seen as an important gauge of economic activity.

Mon 2/21: MARKETS CLOSED FOR PRESIDENTS DAY
Tues 2/21:
Home Depot, Hewlett-Packard, Wal-Mart
9:00 S&P Case Schiller Home Price Index

10:00 Consumer Confidence

Weds 2/22:
Limited Brands, Saks, TJX, Toll Brothers
10:00 Existing Home Sales

Thurs 2/23:
Gap
8:30 Durable Goods

8:30 Weekly Claims

10:00 New Home Sales

Fri 2/24:
8:30 GDP Q4 2nd estimate (originally reported as +3.2%)

9:55 Michigan Sentiment

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