Money Watch Weekly Wrap
The June Jobs report was lousy. The Labor Department said the US economy added only 18,000 non-farm jobs last month and the unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2 percent. Even President Obama had to admit how bad it was, but he did offer a few ideas that he thinks could help the ailing US labor market.
Remarkably, investors held on to gains made earlier in the week, looking ahead to earnings season and perhaps thinking that if the jobs market is weak enough, government could intervene. Regardless of the why, US indexes are firmly higher on the year. The S&P 500 is 98.6 percent above the March 2009 closing low and 14.1 percent below the nominal all-time high of October 2007. If you were to assume that dividends were reinvested, the index is only approximately 6.5 percent the October 2007 high and the broader Wilshire 5000 is within 2 percent of its all-time high.
- DJIA: 12,657, up 0.6% on week, up 9.3% YTD
- S&P 500: 1343, up 0.3% on week, up 6.8% YTD
- NASDAQ: 2859, up 1.5% on week, up 7.8% YTD
- August Crude Oil: $96.20, up 1.3% on week
- August Gold: $1541.60, up 4% on the week
AAA National Average Price for Gallon of Regular Gas: $3.61
Total bank failures for 2011 = 51 (3 new bank failures over weekend)
FACTOIDS OF THE WEEK: Employment edition
- June Jobs: +18,000
- June Private Sector Jobs: +57,000
- May Unemployment Rate: 9.2 percent, from 9.1 percent in May
- Under-Employment Rate (marginally-attached, part-time): 16.2 percent
- February-April average job creation: +215,000 per month
- Total non-farm Jobs created in 2011: 757,000 (126,000 per month)
- Total Jobs created since May, 2010: 1.8 million
- Number of years to return to pre-recession employment, assuming current level of job creation: 4 (Here's a breakdown of individual cities)
- Total Jobs Lost since beginning of recession in 2007: 6.98 million
- Unemployed persons: 14.1 million, from 13.9 million in May
- Long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks and over): 6.3 million, 44.4 percent of unemployed
- Part-timers (hours cut for economic reasons): 8.6 million
- Recovery Results: from Q2 2009-Q4 2010, corporate profits captured 88 percent of growth in real national income. Aggregate wages and salaries accounted for slightly more than 1 percent
- Median Household Income 2009: $49,777
- Median Household Income 1998: $51,100 (inflation adjusted)
IN THE WEEK AHEAD: Earnings season kicks off with reports from Alcoa, Google, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup. On the economic calendar, readings on inflation should decrease, due to the recent drop in crude oil prices. Of particular interest will be the June Retail Sales Report. Retailers posted an aggregate 6.5 percent gain in same-store sales in June, the best month since February 2004, according to Thomson Reuters, though sentiment surveys indicate that consumers may still be holding back.
Mon 7/11:
Alcoa
Tues 7/12:
8:30 Factory Orders
Weds 7/13:
8:30 Import and Export Prices
10:00 Ben Bernanke testifies before House Financial Services Committee
Thurs 7/14:
Google, JP Morgan
8:30 Weekly Claims
8:30 PPI
8:30 Retail Sales
10:00 Ben Bernanke testifies before Senate Banking Committee
Fri 7/15:
Citigroup
8:30 CPI
8:30 Empire State Manufacturing
9:15 Industrial Production
9:55 Consumer Sentiment
