Mission: Almost Impossible

CBS News State Dept. Reporter Charles Wolfson has background and analysis on Secretary of State Colin Powell's politically risky diplomatic mission.

By the time Powell arrives in Jerusalem late this week he will have met with moderate Arab leaders from Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. He will also consult with European ministers, Russia's foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, and the UN's Kofi Annan when he visits Madrid midweek.

The advantage to laying out Powell's trip this way, instead of heading directly for Jerusalem, is that he will have seen, and presumably convinced to follow the U.S. lead, those who represent the bulk of the international community, especially the moderate Arab world.

A senior administration official who gave a background briefing to reporters at the White House following President Bush's remarks last week, said "I'll be speaking to them … next week when I'm out there, and to do a lot more about working with the Palestinian leadership at all levels to get the violence ended."

Almost as important as breaking the cycle of violence which Israelis and Palestinians seem incapable of doing themselves, is preventing this war from spilling over into Jordan and Egypt. At last week's briefing, the same senior official said "… the President had to act to try to stop what we saw as a spiraling level of violence that might expand beyond the current area."

In theory, Powell's plan is simple. He'll listen to world leaders, get everyone to do what they can, especially pushing moderate Arabs to put pressure on Yasser Arafat to crack down on Palestinian terrorists. This approach shows an attempt to be consistent with the President's war on terrorism, recalling his "either you are with us or with the terrorists" approach.

With massive anti-American, anti-Israel street demonstrations taking place almost daily in Cairo, Amman, Beirut and other Arab capitals, Powell's message will test the moderate leaders, asking them to exert their influence while at the same time potentially risking their political standing.

As for those Arab leaders not in the moderate camp, there are other issues which pose a risk for the administration. Murhaf Jouejati, a Syrian analyst with The Middle East Institute in Washington, says there is "a lot of agitation in the refugee camps (inside Syria)." Because of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, Jouejati says "there is fear and this translates into defiant words ( by Syria's leader, President Bashar Asad ) and the more defiant they become, the less the Americans like it. And therefore, the overt cooperation that has taken place between the U.S. and Syria in the war on terrorism is likely to be diluted."

As if pressuring Arab leaders were not enough, Secretary Powell will also have his hands full trying to persuade Israel's Prime minister, Ariel Sharon, to follow President Bush's advice to start withdrawing Israeli army troops from Palestinian-controlled territory "immediately." The Israeli leader has a military plan to get rid of Palestinian terrorists which his commanders say will take four weeks.

The Bush administration is starting to squeeze its ally, Sharon, and the Israeli leader, with his own political problems, is not likely to do everything Washington wants and certainly not as quickly as Washington would like. By the time Powell arrives in Jerusalem, Sharon may have begun to pull some of his troops out of a few Palestinian towns, but he almost certainly will continue his military operations in other areas. Sharon will take the heat.

So Powell's trip will truly be a test. American diplomats have been down the road to Middle East peace before and it is never a smooth ride. On the contrary, it is filled with bumps, potholes and much, much worse. Knowing this from day one, and having seen President Clinton attempt to broker a major peace treaty and fail, the Bush administration tried in every way to avoid making this kind of politically risky trip.

Now it has been forced to engage diplomatically in the middle of raging hostilities, with Secretary Powell hoping to return -- cease fire in hand. The only alternative was politically worse, ceding America's leadership role, remaining on the sidelines and watching more Israelis and Palestinians die.

By Charles M. Wolfson