Manti Te'o hoax: Will his NFL draft stock plummet?

Could the uncertainty surrounding Manti Te'o affect when he is selected in the NFL draft in April?

Probably, say experts.

After the story of the Notre Dame star's girlfriend and her death from Leukemia were revealed as a hoax, NFL draft insiders think the linebacker's draft status could suffer.

"If Te'o is proven to have played a part in this fiasco, he has lost all credibility and his stock will truly suffer," writes Rob Rang of CBSSports.com. "Sure, teams have proven their willingness to gamble on players with criminal records numerous times in the past. Involved or not, Te'o will get drafted."

Te'o is NFLDraftScout.com's top-rated inside linebacker and No. 10 overall prospect.

NFL draft consultant Gil Brandt called the story that Notre Dame's All-American linebacker was involved in a hoax "something I have never witnessed" in his half-century in pro football.

"I think some teams will say it isn't worth the problem" to draft Te'o, said Brandt, who has the linebacker rated 19th overall in the first round.

• Hawaii hometown backs Te'o after "girlfriend" hoax
• Manti Te'o hoax: Many questions remain
• Manti Te'o says he's the victim of girlfriend hoax

The former Dallas Cowboys general manager added Thursday that Te'o's stock had plummeted after a poor performance in the BCS championship game. Now, Te'o could fall further.

"I don't think anybody considered him to be a top-five pick before all this happened," Brandt said. "In that game against Alabama, this was like a guy who was the best shooter in the world in basketball and here comes a game and he can't even hit the backboard. His play in that game was absolutely horrible. He missed on run blitzes; guys ran over him ..."

David Schwab, a senior executive at sports management firm Octagon, considered Te'o perhaps the most marketable player coming into this year's draft. As the face of a Notre Dame team that returned to national relevance, the Heisman Trophy runner-up had the name recognition of few college stars.

"Compassionate" and "heartwarming" were some of the adjectives Schwab would have used to describe his image.

Now, that persona will depend on the details that emerge about the story of a girlfriend who didn't exist.

"If he truly had nothing to do with it, I think the long-term damage is zero," said Schwab, who specializes in matching companies to celebrities.

But depending on how the story unfolds, CBSSports.com's Rang says Te'o could lose money on draft day.

"A longtime surefire first-round pick, he could find himself slipping out of the first day of the draft should it be discovered that he was highly involved in the cruel ruse," Rang writes.

In the short term, it's unlikely to see Te'o promoting any products, because a public appearance would turn into an impromptu news conference about the hoax. If uncertainty lingers about exactly what happened, Schwab said, many companies may hesitate to sign him.

But even if Te'o is implicated in the hoax, he could still eventually turn into a sponsor's dream if he blossoms as an NFL star.

"If you perform on the field, you quickly become marketable," Schwab said.

Look no further than Ray Lewis, the Baltimore Ravens linebacker who was charged with murder in 2000. The charges were dropped after Lewis agreed to testify against two other men and he subsequently pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of obstruction of justice. This week he's a beloved figure heading into the AFC championship with retirement looming.

Te'o would hardly be the first player to see his draft stock sink because of off-field issues. Last year, North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins fell to the second round after multiple run-ins with the law related to marijuana got him dismissed from Florida.

Warren Sapp in 1995 and Randy Moss in 1998 slid because of character concerns; both are now considered potential Hall of Famers.

Teams may be less likely to take a risk on Te'o in the draft if they don't believe he can become a dominant player.

Brandt noted how the inside linebacker position doesn't carry as much importance in the NFL as it once did. In the last 10 years, only four inside linebackers were taken in the first round, although one of them was perennial All-Pro Patrick Willis of San Francisco.

"I think it would be different if it was a quarterback who would change the game," he said. "But linebackers are a piece to the puzzle; they don't solve the puzzle. Other than Ray Lewis, I don't know of any linebacker you say, `We've got to have this guy.'

"(Inside) linebackers are not as important as they used to be. We're down to one or two first-round linebackers now."

Brandt wondered how Te'o could be so effective during the season, including seven interceptions — "unheard of, like hitting .450 in baseball" — and then so unproductive in the championship game.

"Between now and 97 days from now when the draft comes, there'll be a lot of people investigating just what took place," he said.