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Is This NCAA Tourney Four Real?

March 29, 2010 / 7:23 AM EDT / CBS

This story was written by CBSSports.com Senior Writer Gary Parrish

Kyle Singler summarized things rather well.

"I don't think many people had this Final Four," he said late Sunday, at which point I shook my head in agreement, then scratched it in amazement.

Seriously, who had this Final Four?

It's Michigan State vs. Butler and Duke vs. West Virginia.

Photos: Down to the Final Four
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Let's do the Final Four Look Ahead.

I had it kind of wrong: I'm one of the millions who, like Singler said, did not have this Final Four. In fact, I had none of this Final Four. If my bracket were any worse I would be President Obama. But I would like to point out that Michigan State, Duke, West Virginia and Butler were ranked No. 3, No. 9, No. 10 and No. 11 in the preseason Top 25 (and one). So I had these teams pegged pretty well ... way back in November. In March, not so much.

Duke's path wasn't all that easy: There is a difference between being in the easiest regional and having the easiest path, and I'm pointing that out because I would like to put an end to the theory that Duke had the easiest path to the Final Four. The Blue Devils ended up being the only Final Four school to play three teams seeded eighth or better. They had to beat the Pac-10 champ (California), Big Ten champ (Purdue), and a top-20 team from the Big 12 (Baylor) led by a possible lottery pick (Ekpe Udoh). Meantime, West Virginia played only one team seeded better than 10th, and Michigan State didn't deal with anybody seeded better than fourth.

Notes for gamblers

1. Duke is now the favorite to win the national title, according to Sportsbook.com. In order, it goes Duke (+120), West Virginia (+180), Butler (+300), and Michigan State (+650). That means oddsmakers believe the 2010 national champion will be the winner of the Duke-West Virginia game, though I'm sure the winner of the Butler-Michigan State game will still show up next Monday night.

2. Duke is a 2½-point favorite over West Virginia.

3. Butler is a 1½-favorite over Michigan State.

Four random Final Four observations

1. You will hear people talk about how this isn't a "great" Final Four, and I understand that opinion. The nation would be more excited to watch a Kentucky-Kansas title game than, say, a Duke-Butler title game. No question about that. But what has been lost in marquee programs has been gained in great coaches -- three of the best veterans (Mike Krzyzewski, Tom Izzo and Bob Huggins) and a rising star in the sport (Brad Stevens) will converge at Lucas Oil Stadium. Krzyzewski has now made 11 Final Fours, Izzo six in the past 12 years. This is the second for Huggins and first for Stevens. But give the guy time. He's only 33 years old.

2. This Final Four features only three players DraftExpress.com projects to be first-round picks in the 2010 NBA Draft -- Butler's Gordon Hayward, Duke's Kyle Singler and West Virginia's Devin Ebanks. Still, my theory that it takes at least three future NBA players to win a national title could still hold true if West Virginia wins the championship, because Da'Sean Butler and Kevin Jones both project as future NBA players, although likely second-round picks. Duke might also meet the criteria because Mason Plumlee will likely join Singler as a future first-round pick, and Nolan Smith or Brian Zoubek could sneak into the NBA, too. In other words, I'm not conceding defeat yet.

3. Butler making the Final Four isn't a huge surprise -- again, the Bulldogs were a preseason top 10 team -- but there's no denying its appearance is the best story. The Bulldogs are still a small program relative to the others joining them in Indianapolis. There are lots of ways to show this, but the funniest might be on the school's official athletics page, where Stevens' email address is listed in the staff directory. You really can just email Butler's head coach whenever you want. Needless to say, that's not the case at Duke, West Virginia or Michigan State.

4. So much for needing an elite point guard, huh? West Virginia is in the Final Four despite its starting point guard (Darryl Bryant) breaking his foot. Michigan State is in the Final Four despite its starting point guard (Kalin Lucas) rupturing his Achilles' tendon. Butler is in the Final Four despite having a point guard (Ronald Nored) who registers 6.0 points and 3.8 assists per game. Duke is in the Final Four despite using an untraditional point guard (Jon Scheyer) who is admittedly good but still not a natural point for the position. Think about it this way: Recent point guard matchups in the national title game have been Raymond Felton-Deron Williams (2005), Taurean Green-Jordan Farmar (2006), Taurean Green-Mike Conley (2007), Sherron Collins-Derrick Rose (2008), and Ty Lawson-Kalin Lucas (2009). This year we could get Joe Mazzulla-Korie Lucious.

National title game I expect to watch: Butler vs. West Virginia

National champion I expect to see crowned: West Virginia

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