Iowa Pollster: Ann Selzer

Political Players is a weekly conversation with the leaders, consultants and activists who are shaping American politics. A new poll out this week shows some movement by candidates in both parties. CBSNews.com talked with Ann Selzer, the pollster who's conducted the Iowa Poll for nearly 20 years, to discuss what's shaking up this first-in-the-nation caucus state.

Ann Selzer: I don't know that the screening method is the magic. I think worrying about how we're actually selecting households might be. We work with the Secretary of State's Voter Registration List. And we call the independents as well as people who are registered with one of the main parties. Once we have them on the phone, we ask a three-part question about whether they'll vote: definitely, probably or probably not. And in the caucuses, we take both the definitely and the probably and use that analytically to help us understand the depth of candidate support.

CBSNews.com: Your new Democratic Iowa Poll shows Edwards continuing to lead the race. What do you think is behind his quite durable front-runner status in Iowa?

Ann Selzer: I don't know if you remember four years ago, but John Edwards did the two things you have to do to win the caucus. And one is to organize, organize, organize. And the other is to get hot at the end. And he got quite hot at the end.

And a lot of Iowans sort of fell in love. And I mean that it was a very emotional reaction to his kind of candidacy. And our final poll in 2004, his surge was a lot stronger than Kerry's. He just had a farther distance to make up. So the conventional wisdom is had the caucuses been a week later, he might have won.

And he has really invested a lot of time in the state since then. He really credited Iowa with putting him on a national stage when he didn't look like he had much of a shot. And he has paid that back by giving a lot of attention to the state.

CBSNews.com: It's within the margin of error, but your poll also shows Obama edging Hillary for second place.

Ann Selzer: They're very close. It's basically a tie.(1. see clarification below)

CBSNews.com:: Do you have any sense of what, if anything, is Hillary doing wrong? Or is it just too early to make any kind of a judgment?

Ann Selzer: There are some people who would say, "Good for her for not being first," because it puts you in a position where you can only go down. And it is so early. You know, this is probably the earliest we've taken a poll for a caucus in a while. There are many, many months to come. And, like I said, you want to get hot at the end.

So if you're spending all of your time trying to protect your first-place status, you really are distracted because there are so many candidates in the field, you're having to fend them all off. So for Iowa, I don't know that it's particularly bad news for Hillary to be where she is. She does have to figure out what her Iowa strategy is going to be and then execute on it.

CBSNews.com: Iowa has a reputation, fairly or not, as a pretty anti-war, even pacifist state among its Democratic activists. How true is that reputation?

Ann Selzer: Well, I think it's clearly true. But I want you to keep in mind that Iowa sent more soldiers per capita to the Civil War, and probably every war since, than any other state. So when you talk about us being a peace state, it really doesn't put everything into perspective.

CBSNews.com: Has it been a problem for Hillary in Iowa that she hasn't apologized for voting to authorize the war?

Ann Selzer: That's not just a problem in Iowa. In fact, that's the rhetorical mess that she's gotten herself into. And people have to say the focus really isn't on that vote and people will forget about it if she were to talk more about the future. While she has a very strong line about "If George Bush doesn't withdraw our troops, as president, I will," which she repeats ad infinitum, you know, at some point people want to say, "Exactly how are you going to do it that will solve all the other problems that we think would come from that?"

CBSNews.com: And do you think the other two major Democrats are clearer on that?

Ann Selzer: Let me hold that one a second and say it's the same kind of mistake that Howard Dean made four years ago, which was that he kept talking about how he was against it, but he was not talking about what he would do about it.

Now, the other two, you know, they've got different things going for them. Obviously Edwards has chosen to renounce his vote and to apologize for it. I don't know that he has spelled out with great specificity what he would do in terms of international relations. And that's an area that I think especially Democrats want to hear about. How is it that you are going to address the world as leader of the United States, and how are you going to make things better for us and our position in the world?

CBSNews.com: Your poll also shows Bill Richardson cracking into double digits just barely. How well do people know the Democratic candidates who are not the big three? In other words, does a Richardson or a Biden or a Dodd have the hope that as they get better known, their support could rise? Or are they just completely crowded out?

Ann Selzer: They have to do something to make an impact. Joe Biden was here in '88. I mean, he's still well known among the Democratic core, and the fact that he's just not doing very well, he didn't do all that well in '88. That's just kind of the way that works for him. Chris Dodd doesn't even register in our poll, and he spent a little bit of his time here. But he's really just such an unknown.

And to the extent that we have a whole mess of Senators in the field, you sort of go looking for, well, what is it that makes any of them different?

What Richardson has done is to address that head-on, and has gone on television with some ads that really talk about his resume, having two cabinet positions and being a governor of a state that's had to take a look at the immigration issue. And I think it's caused some Democrats to say, "You know what? Here's some competence where we may not have had some before."

CBSNews.com: And Obama?

Ann Selzer: What I think he has to worry about, even though his numbers look good, is what I call the "if" factor. That is, he leads with people outside of the hard Democratic core. He's the one that is getting independents excited about his candidacy. And this election, unlike so many other caucuses before, is absolutely wide open. There's no incumbent. There's no former vice president who's running, and that could really open up these caucuses and bring in a lot of new voters. And if Obama can make that happen, that's the power behind what he's got.

The other way to look at it is that while he is two points ahead of Hillary Clinton, his numbers are soft. That is, it's not necessarily strong among the people we are most definitely confident of showing up on caucus nights.

CBSNews.com:: When we interviewed Carter Eskew, he said that the risk for Obama is that he may end up in the same spot as Paul Tsongas and Bill Bradley and Howard Dean before him, and that he's the candidate who appeals to a more educated, more white, more activist slice of the Democratic pie, but that those candidates tend not to be able to broaden their support enough to actually win.

Ann Selzer: I think what happens is they're seduced by those numbers, and they pay more attention to the younger voter, and to the independents at the expense of what they need to do with the hardcore caucus voter. You just cannot ignore them. Their numbers are too big.

CBSNews.com: OK, so turning to Republicans, the big story coming out of your Republican Iowa poll is obviously Mitt Romney and the poll shows a serious Romney surge. He's beating John McCain 30 to 18. What's Romney doing so well in Iowa?

Ann Selzer: Here's my take on this. When the news came out about how much money he has raised, there was a great deal of earned media about this. And I think the Republicans kind of picked up their heads and said, "Oh, ha, who is this guy? Better go take a look." And they liked what they saw. His numbers if you look across his demographic profile, it isn't like Obama. It's a very flat profile. That is, he has broad appeal across all the segments of the party. That's the kind of thing that you view with a lot of confidence that his number is for real.

CBSNews.com: Even though Giuliani and McCain are essentially tied for second, much of the Iowa pundit class has seemed to say that McCain's got a real edge, because of his organization, which got me thinking: How does one define a good Iowa organization?

Ann Selzer: Well I don't know that I know that much about McCain's organization. He all but skipped Iowa before. So, unlike Edwards, he doesn't have a carryover kind of organization already in place. And I can't tell you that I'm aware of a lot of activity going on in that realm.

And in fact, I think he is sort of the Obama of the Republicans. There's a certain lightness in his vote when you look at who it is who's lining up behind him. So, I don't know that he's all that strong.

And I think on the Giuliani point he gets a little bit of help from some pro-choice Republicans in the state, but again, just as an observer, I don't see him doing that which gets people excited about him, and that is showing leadership. He has stumbled around a bit on where he's going to stand on abortion — which comes across as, OK, it's an issue he's a little afraid of to say what it is that he really thinks in a clear and forceful way. And if he doesn't have leadership, I mean — that's what really got him in this game. And people are expecting to see it.

CBSNews.com: So not to be the proverbial skunk at the garden party, but how predictive are Iowa polls at this point?

Ann Selzer: This is so early. Keep in mind there's a lot more to come. And all of those people who are down at the bottom of the ballot, they have to make a move at some point. And who knows exactly how that's going to play out? Like I said with John Edwards, you know, at this time, four years ago, he was an unknown, absolutely unknown. And Kerry was sitting in third place, and he didn't move out of that until December. So, you know, this is where the campaign is today. So is this what it's going to look like on caucus night? Boy, I hope not. (2. see addition below)

CBSNews.com: But do you think there's anything fundamental that we've learned about how Iowa thinks about these various candidates?

Ann Selzer: No, and in fact, we asked the question of whether your mind is made up, could you still be convinced for somebody else. And it's less than 20 percent who would say that they're locked in.

1) Selzer contacted us and said would like to clarify her statement about Obama and Hillary being in a tie in the polls for second. She says: "it's superior to call it what it is— a two-point difference — than to call it a tie."

2) At the end of her answer to the question about how predictive Iowa polls are, Selzer adds: "I mean by that, I hope there is more excitement. It would be dull if nothing were to change."

3)To her response to the final question of the interview about the early Iowa polls, Selzer adds: "It's like asking whether the first quarter of a football game tells you anything fundamental/definitive about the way the game will end when the clock runs out. Sure, you pick up on some elements that will turn into lasting trends. But you do expect to see the teams change things up as the game progresses."

By Brian Goldsmith