Incoming House majority squeezed by Trump's planned appointments
Washington — Republicans have celebrated holding onto their narrow majority in the House, adding to their flip of the Senate and the White House for a trifecta in Washington next year. But President-elect Donald Trump's selection of a number of House Republicans to fill top posts in his administration is pulling from an already shallow bench, temporarily whittling the GOP majority down further as Trump takes office in January.
Just one House race remains to be decided nearly four weeks after Election Day, with 99% of the vote counted in California's 13th Congressional District, where Democrat Adam Gray is leading GOP Rep. John Duarte. Last week, victories in another California district, along with one in Iowa brought the balance of power in the chamber to 220-214.
Meanwhile, Trump has tapped a handful of House Republicans for top positions in his administration. In the week following the election, the president-elect made two selections from the House, with GOP conference chair Elise Stefanik of New York as ambassador to the U.N., and Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida as national security adviser.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, while outlining the GOP agenda following the picks last month, said the president-elect "fully understands and appreciates the math here," noting that he didn't expect the conference would lose any more members to Trump's administration.
"Every single vote will count because if someone gets ill or has a car accident or a late flight on their plane then it affects the votes on the floor," Johnson said.
Then came Trump's pick of former Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general, setting up three vacancies early in the new Congress. Gaetz resigned his seat immediately, hours after Trump announced his intent to nominate him.
"I told President Trump, 'enough already, you've got to give me some relief,'" Johnson said on Fox News after Trump selected Gaetz for the role. "I've got to maintain this majority."
Though Gaetz has since withdrawn from consideration for the post, facing intense scrutiny over a House Ethics Committee investigation into alleged sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, he's said he does not intend to serve in the 119th Congress, giving Johnson another unwelcome vacancy.
Johnson expressed optimism at the time of Gaetz' selection that with his immediate resignation from the chamber, his seat could be filled by the start of the new Congress, citing Florida state law's process. But Gov. Ron DeSantis set the primary for Jan. 28, and the general election for April 1, which he said was the earliest date the special election could take place. Florida's secretary of state said the election was being conducted "as quickly as statutorily possible."
Waltz' seat is also set for an April 1 general election in Florida. And the special election for Stefanik's seat could take up to 90 days after she resigns. The dynamic could mean for months in the early days of the president-elect's second term, Republicans could have a majority that is as low as one or two seats, meaning that if all House members are present, Johnson could need the support of every single Republican. If he has a three-seat majority, he could afford to lose one Republican on some votes.
The outcome may spell trouble for the GOP's ability to act on the mandate that Republicans have claimed since Trump's victory in the presidential election. (Although Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in both the electoral and popular votes, he did not win a majority of American voters.) House Republican leadership has struggled in recent years to keep the conference united on key priorities, with a reliable group of detractors on its right flank. While the conservatives, many of whom are Trump loyalists, may be more inclined to stay in line under a Trump administration than during President Biden's time in office, Johnson could face opposition from moderates in his party.
House Republicans like Reps. Don Bacon of Nebraska, David Valadao of California and Dan Newhouse of Washington have previously been critical of Trump and could break with the party on some issues, imperiling some early legislative action. Bacon refused to back the president-elect during the primary, while Valadao and Newhouse are the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. After the election, Rep. Mike Lawler of New York told USA Today that he would be willing to speak out against Trump amid GOP control of Washington to work in the best interest of his constituents.
"When I agree with the president, I'll say it. If I disagree on something, I will say that, too," Lawler said.
Still, the exceedingly narrow majority created by Trump's appointments is expected to be short-lived, since all three seats are in safely Republican districts. Johnson expressed confidence that Republicans would be able to work with a smaller majority for as long is necessary, while pledging to "be very aggressive" and move forward with Trump's agenda beginning on Day One.
