Greenspan: Recovery is a Pile of Pants
There's a fair bit of talk among UK bloggers about recovery from the downturn today. But does our recessionary status pass the Greenspan underwear test?
The sale of lipstick has long been used to gauge consumer confidence. But while women are apt to indulge in little luxuries in a downturn, men go to the other extreme, holding off on replacing tatty underwear until they are flush again.
According to former Federal Reserve Boss Alan Greenspan, when sales of pants bottom out, there's a good chance the economy has, too.
Talking on US National Public Radio a couple of years ago, Greenspan claimed that declining sales of men's undies were a reliable indicator of lean times -- his argument being that they are the first thing men will look to save money on, since so few people are likely to see them.
Greenspan's pants theory may sound flaky, but it's at least as sensible as other odd economic indicators -- hemlines (they rise with economic fortunes), hair (long locks mean cash is flowing) and deodorant sales (people dance in a boom.)
So how are men's skivvies selling? Not so well in the US, according to Mintel research quoted by Michael Brush -- it predicts a 2.3 per cent decline in men's underwear sales in 2009 and no recovery till 2013.
And in the UK? According to Research & Markets' 2009 report on UK underwear sales through clothing specialists, spend growth will be negative for the first time in 21 years, although the sector is one that offers retailers great growth potential overall. But for now
