GOP Has Edge In Fight For Senate

CBSNews.com's Brian Bernbaum looks at the battle for control of the Senate.

With the Senate so narrowly divided – 51-48 in favor of the Republicans – and the presidential race tight, the battle for control of the Senate could go late into Election Night.

But the odds are with the Republicans, slightly; they have less territory to defend in more hospitable Southern and Western states, including Colorado, Oklahoma and Louisiana. The Democrats have managed to keep those states in play and still have a chance to pull off an upset and regain the majority.

"Overall there are enough competitive Senate races for the Democrats to gain," said Nick Gonzales, a political analyst with the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "But the Republicans still have a slight advantage. They have less seats to defend, in less competitive states."

All nine of these too-close-to-call races are all being fought in "red" states – states carried by George W. Bush in the 2000 election. Six of these are open seats being vacated by retiring senators. Of these, four are being vacated by retiring Democrats, while two are left open by retiring Republicans.

In these traditionally Republican-leaning states, most Democrats running for Senate are pushing moderate to conservative credentials, and distancing themselves – if not running completely separate – from John Kerry.

"The Democrats have a difficult task this year," said Gonzales. "If they're going to win, they have to attract Bush voters. But at the same time, they also have to tap into some of that enthusiasm against Bush to attract Democrats."

The Republicans are defending 15 seats this election, to 19 for the Democrats. Former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont is the Senate's lone independent and he votes with the Democrats.

To win a Senate majority, Democrats need to win seven of the eight close races. If John Kerry is elected president they only need six, since Vice President John Edwards would then hold the tie-breaking vote.

In 23 of this year's 34 Senate races, the seat is expected to stay in the hands of the party that currently holds it. The parties are expected to swap seats in Georgia and Illinois.

A handful of the close races stand out for their surprising ups and downs.

South Dakota: Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is the only Democratic incumbent whose bid for re-election is in jeopardy. He's seeking his fourth term against 2002 GOP Senate nominee and former Rep. John Thune. Despite Daschle's name recognition and long career, Thune has kept him on the defensive on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage, which Daschle claims to be against. Daschle has also been criticized for a TV ad that shows him hugging George W. Bush shortly after the president's 9/11 speech.

Alaska: Though George W. Bush beat Al Gore by 31 points in Alaska in 2000, Sen. Lisa Murkowski is considered the Republican incumbent most in danger of losing her seat. She faces a tough re-election fight against Democrat Tony Knowles, a popular former governor. Murkowski was appointed to her Senate seat in 2000 by her father, the increasingly unpopular Gov. Frank Murkowski – a fact pointed out by bumper stickers that ask, "Yo, Lisa! Who's Yer Daddy?" Knowles has succeeded in making Murkowski's appointment a major campaign issue, while at the same time playing down his connection with John Kerry, and promising – like Murkowski – to open up Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife for drilling, which is one of President Bush's top energy issues. Hoping to stave off a major upset, the GOP has brought out some heavy hitters, including Vice President Dick Cheney, to campaign for Murkowski.

Oklahoma: Physician and former GOP Rep. Tom Coburn is battling it out against Democratic Rep. Brad Carson for a seat left open by retiring Republican Sen. Don Nickles. Coburn's campaign has been dogged by controversy, including his remarks calling Oklahoma lawmakers "crapheads," as well as an unearthed malpractice lawsuit – later dropped – alleging that he sterilized a female patient without her consent during an operation in 1990. More recently, Coburn came under fire for quoting another Republican about lesbianism run-amok in rural Oklahoma, saying, "He was telling me lesbianism is so rampant in some of the schools in southeast Oklahoma that they'll only let one girl go to the bathroom." But Coburn has a long career and wide name recognition, and seems to have recovered from his gaffes, erasing Carson's earlier lead in the polls. If elected, Carson, 37, would become the youngest member of the Senate.

Florida: Already a prominent state in the presidential election, Florida could also figure in control of the Senate. In a hotly contested race, Democratic former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor is running against former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez for an open seat vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Bob Graham. This is a good chance for a Republican pick-up. Martinez is running on the president's agenda with significant support from the Bush campaign. He is anti-abortion rights and supports the constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, an issue he and Castor have clashed over. If elected Martinez would be the first Cuban American elected to the Senate.

Colorado: State Attorney General Ken Salazar and Republican brewing magnate Pete Coors are vying for the seat vacated by Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who had been favored to win a third term. Both candidates have deep roots in the state, but Coors – a first-time politician – has the advantage of almost universal name recognition and more conservative views in a state that tends to vote Republican. Salazar is a moderate Democrat and more seasoned candidate whose Hispanic heritage is expected to help him among the states growing Hispanic population. Some of Coors' early comments continue to hurt him, including a suggestion that the drinking age be lowered to age 18. Salazar could prove moderate enough to siphon off some Republican votes.

Kentucky: Two-term Republican incumbent and former major league pitcher Jim Bunning had been favored to win an easy reelection against challenger Daniel Mongiardo, a moderate Democrat and physician. But Bunning's campaign has been plagued by his erratic behavior and embarrassing gaffes that have eroded his lead and given Mongiardo plenty of ammunition. First Bunning compared the olive-skinned Mongiardo to one of Saddam Hussein's sons; then he accused Mongiardo staffers of beating his wife "black and blue" at a political picnic. Bunning also cancelled a debate appearance and insisted on appearing with Mongiardo via satellite from Washington. His campaign later admitted that he read his closing and opening statements from a teleprompter. All of this has raised questions about the 73-year-old Bunning's suitability for office.

North Carolina: Democrat Erskine Bowles is fighting it out against Republican Rep. Richard Burr for the seat vacated by Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards. Bowles, a businessman and former chief of staff for President Clinton, narrowly lost a Senate bid against Elizabeth Dole in 2002, but has improved his game this year and held the lead for most of this race. Both campaigns have focused on jobs and the economy, as their state has hemorrhaged jobs in the textile and furniture industries. Like Dole, Burr has spent much of his time campaigning in small towns and rural areas, and it seems to have paid off: recent polls show he has erased Bowles lead and locked up the race in this Republican-leaning state.

South Carolina: In a surprisingly close race for retiring Democratic Sen. Ernest Hollings' seat, three-term Republican Rep. Jim DeMint is facing off against Democratic education superintendent Inez Tenenbaum. Tenenbaum is running as a moderate Democrat and has distanced herself from the Kerry campaign. DeMint is campaigning on President Bush's agenda, but has run into some stumbling blocks that have evaporated his lead in the polls and breathed new life into Tenenbaum's campaign. DeMint was forced to apologize for saying that pregnant, unwed mothers and homosexuals should not be teachers. DeMint also drew fire for supporting a plan to scrap the IRS and replace income tax with a 23 percent national sales tax.

Louisiana: The race for retiring Democratic Sen. John Breaux's seat is a four-way battle between Republican Rep. David Vitter and three Democrats: Rep. Chris John, state Treasurer John Kennedy, and state Rep. Arthur Morrell. The election system in Louisiana is likely to push this race into a December run-off election between November's two-top vote-getters. Vitter is the heavy favorite but he may fall short of the 50 percent needed to avoid the run-off.

Despite the Democrats' ability to keep these crucial Southern states in play, they remain traditionally hostile territory for Democrats, especially in a tight presidential election year, and the GOP is confident.

"The Democrats are pouring millions of dollars into these races in these states, but they don't necessarily have the right message," said Dan Allen, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

But there's no doubt the GOP gaffes and blunders have helped Democrats – most notably in Oklahoma and Kentucky – who point to a pattern of weak and floundering Republican candidates.

"The missteps of the GOP candidates are only a reflection of the quality of candidates they're running," said Cara Morris, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, adding that the Democrats recruited strong candidates this year.

"Because most of these states do not traditionally vote for a Democrat," she said, "We had to find candidates appropriate for the states. They are running their own races." she said.

For their part, Republicans downplay the gaffes as small blips on a very Republican radar.

"From a pure numbers game, the Democrats still have a very tall order," said Allen.

By Brian Bernbaum