Good News Update: Consumer Prices, Retail Sales, Manufacturing
More often that not, the bad news gets the front page headlines and the top spots on news sites, while the good news is buried in the back pages or several links away. This is just as true about the financial media as media in general -- just look at the stories about the collapsing dollar and unemployment rising into double digits.
However, not all the news is bad. And it's important to keep a proper perspective. This is why on occasion I have written about some of the good news, Âand will continue to do so. This week provided us with the following.
Consumer prices advanced 0.3 percent in October. This increase followed a 0.6 percent decline in September and a 1.7 percent rise in August. Even with the increase, overall prices are down 0.2 percent since October 2008. And the rate of increase in the core price index (ex-food and energy) was an even more moderate 0.2 percent. The continued moderation in inflation provides the Federal Reserve cover to keep its low interest rate policy in place for an extended period.
The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 1.4 percent in October, which was a higher-than-expected increase and a sharp rebound from the 2.3 percent September decline.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index was 23.5 in November. While this is down from its five-year high of 34.6 in October, it was the fourth consecutive month of positive readings. Readings above zero signal expansion in manufacturing. Also, the Institute for Supply Management's national manufacturing gauges showed factories expanded in October at the fastest pace in more than three years, helped by gains in production and employment.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia saw its general economic index rise to 16.7 from 11.5 in October. As with the New York Fed's index, readings above zero signal growth. Also, the Philadelphia Fed's index of new orders rose to 14.8 from 6.2 the month before, and the shipments index rose to 15.7 from 3.3.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators (its gauge of the economic outlook for the next few months) rose 0.3 percent in October, marking its seventh consecutive gain.
Even the announcement that October housing starts unexpectedly fell 10.6 percent (well below expectations) has a positive component. The housing market is plagued by an excess supply of homes. The last thing the market needs is more supply coming on the market.
I'm not trying to say everything is rosy. But it's important to remember that there's a mix of good and bad news about our economy. Having a more balanced perspective on the news should help you stay disciplined and adhere to your investment plan.