3 gold price scenarios that could occur in 2025

Gold prices hit record highs in 2024, climbing past $2,700 per ounce. Inflation and other economic concerns drove investors toward the precious metal, while central banks added to the momentum with aggressive buying.

The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have renewed interest in gold investing. But prices have pulled back from their late-2024 peaks, leaving many investors wondering about the market's direction for the new year. What can investors expect to happen to gold prices in 2025? Below, we'll explore what could unfold — and what to watch for if you're considering gold to diversify your portfolio.

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3 gold price scenarios that could occur in 2025

Financial experts like Kevin Shahnazari, founder and CEO of FinlyWealth, see gold prices trending upward in 2025. "My analysis stems from persistent global uncertainty, central bank buying patterns and monetary policy shifts," he says.

Let's examine three distinct paths the gold market might take in 2025:

Scenario 1: The bull case

Some experts anticipate moderate gains for gold this year. This bullish outlook stems from growing demand across multiple fronts. Global conflicts have made gold more appealing as investors seek safety for their money. 

The picture could brighten further if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, as this can weaken the dollar and makes gold more attractive. With central banks buying at record levels and lingering concerns about inflation, gold prices could find strong support through 2025.

Get invested in gold before the price rises again.

Scenario 2: The base case

"Gold prices would likely stay stable if interest rates hold steady and inflation normalizes around 2%," suggests Shahnazari.

For this Goldilocks scenario to emerge, several pieces need to fall into place: a stable U.S. dollar would maintain current trading patterns, while supply chains would need to run smoothly without disruptions. If geopolitical tensions also ease during this period, gold may hold its value without major price swings.

Scenario 3: The bear case

"A stronger-than-expected dollar coupled with higher real interest rates would pressure gold prices downward," Shahnazari warns.

If prices fall below key technical support levels, this could trigger automated selling by technical traders who follow chart patterns. As a result, we might see sustained weakness throughout the year.

What could influence gold's price in 2025?

According to Shahnazari and Rosa Y.C. Chen, director of research and portfolio manager at investment firm Bradley, Foster & Sargent, five factors could shape gold's trajectory in 2025:

• Dollar index and real yields: Rising inflation-adjusted yields often put downward pressures on gold prices. On the other hand, a weaker dollar typically supports higher gold values.
• Central bank purchases: Large national banks have been steady gold buyers, creating reliable demand regardless of market prices. And if other countries increase their gold reserves while reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings, it can help maintain gold's value.
• U.S. debt and inflation: America's growing deficit could lead to higher inflation as the government seeks to fund operations with less valuable dollars. This could boost gold prices.
• ETF investment flows: Increased inflows to gold ETFs signal growing investor demand.
• Market disruptors: Unexpected events such as major cyber attacks could send prices soaring. In contrast, mining technology breakthroughs might increase supply and lower prices.

The bottom line

While any of the above scenarios are possible, "gold has been and still is on an upward trend," notes Chen. No matter where gold prices head this year, you should start making smart investment decisions now, in January.

First, consult a financial advisor to understand your options. Each one comes with different considerations. For example, physical gold offers direct ownership but requires storage solutions and involves higher transaction costs. Gold mining stocks can provide dividends and easier trading, though they carry company-specific risks.

Whatever path you choose, keep a long-term perspective and align your investment with your big-picture financial goals. When in doubt, Shahnazari advises maintaining a 5% to 10% allocation during rising prices and dollar-cost averaging in stable markets.