Five Make-Or-Break States

It’s the lopsided result of electoral vote arithmetic. States with the largest populations will likely see less of the presidential candidates this fall, while voters in a handful of pivotal mid-sized states face the prospect of overexposure to Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.

“If they come any more often, we’re going to have to ask them to apply for a driver’s license,” jokes Pennsylvania political scientist Terry Madonna.

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“The candidates have made it clear [by their travel schedules] where their lists are,” says presidential scholar Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution. “If you live in Wyoming or Alabama, you won’t be seeing much of the candidates.”

Pollster John Zogby extends the list of states that are too close to call to include Washington, Oregon, New Jersey, Delaware, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine. Illinois, which makes the short list for many political observers, is in the Gore column for now, he says.

Zogby estimates that just 7-10 percent of voters of the nation’s voters remain undecided. “It’s unusual in the sense that it’s extremely close… we haven’t had a year like this since at least 1976,” he says.

An analysis conducted by the Associated Press earlier this month indicated that Al Gore has built a slight lead in the race to win the 270 state electoral votes required to win the presidency, allotting 14 states with 271 votes to Gore, and 22 states wit179 votes to Bush. But other calculations give the Texas governor the edge.

Political scholar Charles Jones sees a scenario in which Bush can win 271 electoral votes without winning electoral heavyweight California (which leans towards Gore) as long as he can win Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

But a closer look at those three key states, along with Michigan and Missouri, show the race still hangs very much in the balance.

Florida (25 electoral votes)size>color>

Long believed to be Republican territory, especially with Bush’s younger brother in the governor’s mansion, vote-rich Florida has recently become a player.

Though political scientists decline to give too much credence to a running mate’s ability to attract votes, several noted that Gore’s selection of Joseph Lieberman has energized the Jewish voting base in Florida, which could boost both turnout and contributions within the state.

Bill Clinton lost the state in 1992, but won it in 1996. James Monroe, an associate professor of political science at the University of Miami, believes the Democrats have learned from history that they can win the state if they devote resources to it, as they did in ’96 and did not do in ’92. Even so, he observes that even Democrats in the state seem surprised that Gore has pulled even to Bush in recent polls.

Monroe says Gore’s stress of issues such as prescription drugs for the elderly and Social Security benefits has resonated with a powerful segment of the state’s voting population. Gore and Lieberman "are really gaining ground and gaining traction among the issues that appeal to seniors.”

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and his Hispanic wife have kept a low profile in the presidential campaign. Until now, it appeared Bush didn’t need brother Jeb’s all-out support. But that will likely change soon. “I would expect it to heat up before Election Day,” says Monroe.

Michigan (18 electoral votes)size>color>

Michigan has been a weather vane of national voting patterns and could prove pivotal again this year. Recent polls give Gore a slight lead in the state, just as they have across much of the country in the past few weeks.

David Rohde, a Michigan State University political scientist, says the vote will turn on suburban voters, moderates and voters who don’t vote along strict party lines, or “ticket splitters,” of which the state has plenty. He also points out that even within the state’s key demographic groups, including unions and Catholics, there are swing voters.

Though Michigan Gov. John Engler is a Republican and Republicans hold a slight majority in the state legislature, Rhode does not believe that will factor in on the minds of voters. “Voters in Michigan don’t need John Engler to tell them ho to vote,” he says.

As for Bush’s loss to Arizona Sen. John McCain in the state’s primary, Rohde dismisses it as “completely unrepresentative of the state.”

Missouri (11 electoral votes)size>color>

The Show-Me state has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1960, and this year shows signs of extending that record. “We’re clearly swinging back and forth,” says James Davis, a political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. “I think it’s going to be very, very close. [Bush and Gore] are both going to be in this state a lot.”

As in Michigan, Missouri voters reflect the nation’s diversity as a whole and recent polls there also indicate a neck-and-neck race between Gore and Bush. The voters’ key issues, says Davis, are health care and education, just as they are for most Americans. At the risk of offending the local Chamber of Commerce, he says plainly, “I don’t think there’s anything that unique about Missouri.”
As testament, however, to the important role the state will play in the fall campaigns, Davis notes that a St. Louis presidential debate scheduled by the nonpartisan commission on debates is the only one to which Bush agreed from the start.

Ohio (21 electoral votes)size>color>

No Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio, and the most recent polls show Bush ahead, though not by much. It’s considered the most Republican of the Midwestern states says John Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute for Applied Politics at the University of Akron.

Green believes the race will be very close. “Absent a big mistake, it will go right down to the wire.”

The GOP's strength in Ohio stems from the party’s control of state government. There are also more Republicans in the electorate and swing voters tend to lean Republican.

But President Clinton won the state twice, and Green notes that as of late Gore has solidified his base in Ohio, especially among blue-collar labor voters and women. “Gore is campaigning hard here… making Bush work for it,” says Green, in the same way that Bush is making Gore work for Pennsylvania.

In noting how the leanings of one state impacts strategy in another, Green calls the electoral calculations a “very elaborate three-dimensional chess game.”

Pennsylvania (23 electoral votes)size>color>

In Pennsylvania, recent polls show a slight edge for Gore. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University, attributes that to Gore’s ability to consolidate his base since the Democratic convention.

Madonna predicts the winning candidate will e the one who performs best in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. “The suburbs have really become the real big swing battlegrounds,” says Madonna, who believes the big cities will vote Democratic while the heartland will remain Republican. The other determining factor will be turnout.

But Madonna stresses that presidential elections in Pennsylvania are always competitive because 90 percent of the electorate is split within the two major parties, leaving candidates to fight over about 10 percent of the independent vote.

Charles Jones of the University of Wisconsin contends that the role of political parties is key to understanding why the Midwest states are consistently considered “battlegrounds.”

“These are states where both parties are very strong and highly competitive. Many have split-party state governments… illustrative of the fact that both parties are well-funded, well-organized and know how to do battle,” says Jones.

But as one political observer put it, there are many “crisscrossing kinds of elements” at play this election year.

Pollster Zogby attributes Bush’s loss of ground in the national polls to a drop-off of support among independents, mostly among independent women. He also believes “the flirtation that women and some minorities had" with Bush "seems to have dissipated.”

The Brookings Institution's Hess notes that this election year defies traditional voting models, which tend to link voter behavior to the strength of the economy. Based on that, Gore should win, Hess says. “The fact that it’s still very close suggests there’s a lot more to it.”