"Face the Nation" transcripts, October 28, 2012: McCain and Emanuel

(CBS News) Below is a transcript of "Face the Nation" on October 28, 2012, hosted by CBS News' Bob Schieffer. Guests include: Senator John McCain, R-Ariz., and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. A roundtable includes Ruth Marcus with The Washington Post; Mark Lebovich with the New York Times Magazine; Bob Shrum, Democratic consultant contributor for the Daily Beast; John Fund with The National Review and CBS News' John Dickerson.

ANNOUNCER: From CBS news in Washington, Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer.

SCHIEFFER: And good morning again. Welcome to Face the Nation. And if there were not enough political and weather news, add this an earthquake that measures a magnitude of 7.7 has taken place off the coast of western Canada. No injuries or damage reported so far there. So we're going to start with the big storm up the east coast of the United States, Hurricane Sandy.

And for that, we go to chief meteorologist David Bernard from our Miami, Florida station WFOR -- Dave, tell us what you know.

DAVID BERNARD, CBS CHIEF METEOROLOGIST, WFOR MIAMI: All right, good morning, Bob.

Already the weather is starting to affect the mid-Atlantic states and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. We can see Sandy's rain bands already spreading well inland. This is a massive storm and so the weather is going downhill today for the entire east coast.

Now, this is the wind field forecast. This is for 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. We'll have tropical storm-force winds overspreading almost all of the east coast of the United States. And the hurricane- force wind gusts will begin moving onshore during the day tomorrow, last through tomorrow night, and probably into Tuesday morning as well. You can just see how massive this storm actually is going to be. And that's why we're so worried about the storm surge danger. If you're being asked to evacuate, you definitely need to. This is going to bring a tremendous amount of water near and just north of wherever the storm eventually makes landfall. And besides up the coast, we could see heavy rains, parts of the area, a lot of Maryland under a flood watch now as well, 5 to 10 inches of rain locally could fall in some spots.

So we have all the ingredients of a terrible storm, Bob. We have the coastal flooding, the inland flooding, the power outages are going to be a huge problem and then of course in the mountains we could be talking about a lot of snow.

SCHIEFFER: All right. Well, thank you very much, Dave.

And now to CBS news national correspondent Chip Reid who is in Ocean City, Maryland. Chip, is it there yet?

CHIP REID, CBS NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, not quite the full force of it yet, Bob, but we are certainly feeling stronger winds, and the surf is certainly riled up. The mayor here wants to make sure people don't get complacent, because a year ago, Hurricane Irene, they had all these dire warnings, and it really didn't do much to this city. He wants to make sure they understand that this time there really could be some severe flooding, a storm surge of 4to 8 feet which would mean where I'm standing will certainly be underwater. He's warning people in the low-lying parts of the island to prepare to evacuate. And he's saying power could be out for days. They need a disaster supply kit. It's very important that people don't get complacent based on what happened a year ago because this one could be much worse -- Bob.

SCHIEFFER: All right, thank you, my friend. Chip Reid in Maryland.

Let's go now to CBS News correspondent Elaine Quijano. She is at Point Pleasant Beach, New Jersey this morning. Elaine, what's the latest there?

ELAINE QUIJANO, CBS NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Bob.

Well, Governor Chris Christie has declared a statement of emergency here in new jersey. And he's also ordered the mandatory evacuation for residents who live on the barrier islands, that begin at 4:00 this afternoon.

Really, the big concern here is the water. Officials say the storm surge, combined with high tide, could send water levels much higher than normal, anywhere from 4 to 8 feet in some areas.

Another concern, of course, is downed power lines with the approaching winds here. Local power companies have been pre- positioning their trucks and their crews so that they can be ready to respond once this storm actually does pass. Now, to of to the north in New York City, officials have opened up emergency shelters for any residents who want to go ahead and take advantage of that. There is some worry about flooding, particularly in lower Manhattan. And mayor Michael Bloomberg is urging residents to stay inside as Hurricane Sandy approaches. Another big worry, of course, the mass transit. Officials will decide today if in fact they went to keep the mass transit system open -- Bob.

SCHIEFFER: Okay, thank you very much, Elaine.

And before we turn to politics, one other weather note. Governor Cuomo has announced that the New York Subway bus and train system will shut down at 7:00 p.m. tonight. There's also news this morning on the campaign front. Mitt Romney has won the endorsement of the Des Moines Register in battleground state Iowa. This has not gone to a republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon.

So to get some reaction to that and other things, we go to our go-to guy in Arizona for news, weather, and sports, John McCain.

How's the weather out there, senator? And good morning to you.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, (R) ARIZONA: It's very nice and balmy. I think the storm may not reach Arizona. But, obviously, the disruption of the airline -- the whole nation, obviously. And our prayers and thoughts are with those who lie in the path of the storm. And we'll keep praying.

SCHIEFFER: All right.

I want to ask you about that endorsement by the Des Moines Register. I mean, sometimes endorsements matter, sometimes they don't. What about this one?

MCCAIN: I think in a close race, the Register is very well regarded. And of course it's almost a man bites dog story because the Register has not endorsed a Republican since, I guess, Calvin Coolidge. I don't know. But - so I think that aspect of it is -- makes it a big story. And of course it's bound to help a little bit, at least in a very close race. And we view Iowa as almost a toss-up.

SCHIEFFER: Actually, not since Richard Nixon. He was the last republican.

MCCAIN: OK.

SCHIEFFER: Let me ask you this, senator-- in the last days of this campaign, if this storm turns out to be what they're telling us it's going too, who gets hurt the most by it?

MCCAIN: I'm not sure that it gets hurt. But I-- I think that the president of the United States is the commander in chief. The American people look to him, and I'm sure he will conduct himself and play his leadership role in a fine fashion. So I would imagine that might help him a little bit.

But I'm not sure it will affect votes. People have been exposed to this very long campaign. For the first time, foreign policy is now part of this discussion that we're having. I've been traveling all over. This tragedy turned into a debacle and massive cover-up or massive incompetence in Libya is having an effect on the voter because of their view of the commander in chief. And it is now the worst cover-up or incompetence that I have ever observed in my life.

SCHIEFFER: Let me get back to that just in a second. Let me just ask you what you said there. Are you saying the president should he come off the campaign trial now and devote himself to directing storm-relief efforts and that sort of thing?

MCCAIN: I'm sure he will. At least for a period of time I'm sure that the president will. We all remember New Orleans.

SCHIEFFER: What about -- what about what you just said about Libya? Are you saying now that this was a deliberate cover-up coming out of the Libya, that in fact this was not what the administration said it was, but something else entirely. And that, I guess, if it was a cover-up, are you saying they did it for political reasons?

MCCAIN: I don't know if it's either cover-up or gross -- the worst kind of incompetence, which doesn't allow -- doesn't qualify the president as commander in chief. You've got to -- the buildup to it. We knew of two attacks on our consulate. The British ambassador assassination attempt. Repeated warnings. Repeated warnings. The last message our beloved ambassador sent to us concerns about security in Benghazi. He had even voiced them to me when I was in Tripoli. Nothing was done.

I may not expect the president to know about movement of a few people back and forth, but he certainly should have known about the deteriorating situation. And nothing was done.

On the day of, obviously, there was no military either capability or orders to intervene in a seven-hour fight. And probably the worst of all of this, of course, is the gross, gross, outrageous statements that he made and his-- I was on your program when Susan Rice came on. And I was slack-jawed when she went through that routine of the-- that this was a spontaneous demonstration triggered by a video. We now know there was no demonstration. There was no mob. So how could intelligence community ever reach a conclusion that there was a spontaneous demonstration when there wasn't?

You know, this administration is very good at touting and giving all the details like when they got Bin Laden. But now, we know that there were tapes, recordings inside the consulate during this fight, and they've gotten-- they came-- the FBI finally got in and took those, and now they're classified as "Top Secret." Why would they be top secret?

So the president went on various shows, despite what he said he said in the Rose Garden, about terrorist acts, he went on several programs, including The View including Letterman, including before the UN where he continued to refer, days later, many days later, to this as a spontaneous demonstration because of a hateful video. We know that is patently false.

What did the president know? When did he know it? And what did he do about it?

SCHIEFFER: Well, I was just going to say, senator, you have called for declassifying the drone pictures. Apparently there were drone pictures. Why -- have you seen those pictures, senator?

MCCAIN: No, I have not. But what I do know is, that those in the surveillance records from inside and around the consulate will show that there was no demonstration. The Turkish ambassador left his -- the consulate and said good-bye to Chris Stevens at 8:30 at night. There was no demonstration.

So for literally days and days, they told the American people something that had no basis in fact whatsoever. And that is the president of the United States. And so, also, by the way, he said he immediately ordered action to be taken. Well, no action was taken over seven hours. Now we find out the secretary of Defense decided not to take any action.

You know, somebody the other day said to me this is as bad as Watergate. Well, nobody died in Watergate. But this is either a massive cover-up or incompetence that is not acceptable service to the American people.

SCHIEFFER: What do you think Mitt Romney needs to do if he called and you said, what, I do need to do now, John, to close this?" What would you tell him?

MCCAIN: I'd say keep doing what he's doing. I think that national security, as I said, foreign policy, is now entered into this discussion. I think he is got some momentum. It isn't over till it's over, as Yogi used to say. But I think, again, project the image of leadership, a capability to be commander in chief, and by the way, this-- this whole debacle in Libya has exposed the failures of the Obama foreign policy whether it be in Iraq, where al Qaeda is now on the upswing. There's al Qaeda training camps in Iraq. There's Iranian planes flying weapons to Bashar Assad over Iraq. Syria, 34,000 people now killed, and it's now spilling over into Lebanon, Turkey, et cetera.

All we do is say to the people in Afghanistan that we're leaving and we're seeing this terrible killing of Americans by Afghan soldiers. On and on. This is a foreign policy failure. And the American people may take that into consideration a week from Tuesday.

SCHIEFFER: All right, senator, thank you so much. I have to move on. Thank you for being with us. We'll be back with former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel in one minute.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: And joining us now from Akron, Ohio, the mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel. Mr. Mayor, thank you so much.

And I'm never one to presume to know what the answers are before I ask the questions, but my guess is you will have a slightly different take on events and what we just heard from Senator McCain.

RAHM EMANUEL, (D) MAYOR OF CHICAGO: Very good, Bob. Yes.

First of all, the president immediately ordered an investigation into what happened in Benghazi. Second, he wants to find out who's responsible. And third, he will bring them to justice, just like he brought Bin Laden and al Awlaki in Yemen. And he has been consistent about that. And he did refer to it the event as a terrorist act. And when Mitt Romney said he didn't. So that's number one.

And the events there are a human tragedy. It's an assault on America. And as commander in chief, he took control and he said exactly what needs to be done. None of us are privy to the information. I'm not. I'm the mayor of the city of Chicago. But if the commander in chief says I want to get to the bottom of it, I want an investigation, get the report, find out who is accountable, who is responsible for this act, and we will bring them to justice, just like he did when he brought justice to Osama bin Laden and just like he did to the al Qaeda leadership that is decimated in the Afghanistan area and Pakistan area and just like he did to Awlaki that was hiding in Yemen who tried to bring two terrorist attacking to the United States. That is what a commander in chief does.

SCHIEFFER: Now you weren't there, obviously you don't have access to this information, but you were White House chief of staff. How is it that...

EMANUEL: Rumor has it.

SCHIEFFER: So many of -- versions of events could come out of this thing? I mean, you know, yes, yes, he -- yes, he said in the Rose Garden, he referred to a terrorist attack. But five days later, Susan Rice was right here on this broadcast and on other Sunday broadcasts saying that no, it wasn't. And I mean, how is that that could happen? That was just -- go ahead.

EMANUEL: Bob, first of all, no, Bob, you have an event, a changing event. You don't have people on the ground with that information. The intelligence community, many different apparatus from military intelligence, national security intelligence, CIA, is assembling that information to give you the best pictures. And events change. And when Susan went out there, she was working off the intelligence provided that the point.

Let me go toy point about what the senator just said. you have Benghazi, information changes while asking for real-time information. You're getting that changed all the time while the intelligence community assesses what happened in giving that report.

The senator just made a point about foreign policy. Let's go through this. On Iran, when we-- when the president came into office, America was isolated from the world and people were questioning our judgments. Three years later, the tables have been turned, and Iran is now isolate from the rest of the world and you have crippling sanctions. That is not a failure, that is a success of America's leadership.

Second, because we have been at war for a decade, two wars, one the longest in American history, the president committed to bring Iraq to an end, and now our word is committed and people know it, and seen what we have done. Second he had a surge in Afghanistan, and now we're withdrawing, all with the purpose of coming home and building America. And the best foreign policy you can have is a strong America at home. And he's made sure that we invest here in America and make sure we invest in our roads, our bridges, and our highways, and our schools and our broadband, our infrastructure and our educational system. That's the strongest part of our foreign policy.

Third, he's reoriented America towards the Pacific and making sure that we are there as a credible ally to our allies there as China is emerging.

At every level America's foreign policy abroad in Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East is respected because they have seen this president take decisive leadership, take positions that he has executed from Iran to the protection of Israel, to changing the war in Iraq and American's foreign policy to rebuilding us at home, reorienting America's resources to the threat coming, our the challenge coming from China. That is a foreign policy that has made America continue to be the leader of the free world and with its values.

And I would actually disagree with what the senator said. And if you look across the waterfront, America's leadership has never been stronger.

SCHIEFFER: All right.

Why do you think this race is so close right now?

EMANUEL: First of all, because there's a lot at stake. We have still a lot of work, as the president said, to come home and build America. We just ended a decade, two major events. We have the longest war in American history where we have drained our resources. And for the first decade in American history, during the Bush presidency, American middle class saw their household income decline. And that is a rupture in the American fabric. And the president said, to be strong at home, to be strong abroad, you must have an economic strategy built on the middle class.

They have weathered not only a lost decade; they weathered the worst recession in American history. And, step by step, right here where I am in Ohio, he took the most courageous act also, to rebuild the auto industry.

I just left Toledo, where they are adding a third shift to the Jeep factory there. And if it was up to Mitt Romney, he would have let it all go bankrupt. Because of the president's decision, against conventional wisdom out of Washington and New York, those auto jobs are being added and America is now adding auto jobs. That's the strengthening not only of those jobs, those communities like Toledo.

I'm here in Akron today, and you can see Ohio. Just take this fact. When the president came into office, the unemployment level in Ohio was north of 10 percent. Today it's at 7 percent, a three-full- point drop.

Why? Because of the decision about putting the auto industry and the auto communities first, not letting it go bankrupt like Mitt Romney.

SCHIEFFER: We have -- we have...

EMANUEL: We're nowhere close -- we're nowhere close where we need to be, and the president says to get -- to build America at home, invest in our schools, invest in our people, invest in our roads, our bridges and our railway and our airports. And that's how you make an America that has a 21st Century economy, running on a 21st Century foundation.

SCHIEFFER: We have 20 seconds left. What happened to the women's vote? The president way ahead there. Now that seems to be closing. Are you going to be able to get that back?

EMANUEL: Yeah, look, the early -- I'm here in Ohio. I just checked the early vote. The president is up almost two to one over Mitt Romney. And that's an indication that the field operation, the communication strategy, and the message of a resurgence of a strengthening middle class is essential, and also the choice that women have to face on a host of issues from economic to health care issues that I think the president's message is right for them.

And if you look at the early votes in Iowa, Ohio, Florida, the president's campaign is actually -- an investment they have made in a "get out the vote" effort identifying their voters is starting to pay off because they're beating all their numbers from '08.

SCHIEFFER: All right. We have to stop you there. The clock ran out. Thank you so much, Mr. Mayor.

Back with some personal thoughts...

EMANUEL: Thanks, Bob.

SCHIEFFER: ... in a second.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: It is an honor to moderate a presidential debate, and while I never say never at this stage of my life, I can't imagine I'd ever do another. So here are some observations after doing three of them.

They seem to work best when the candidates are seated at a table rather than behind the more formal podiums or wandering around the stage in a town hall format.

The debates do matter and people like them. Around 60 million people will gather around their television sets on three separate nights. That means it's obvious voters find them relevant.

Even more important, they are one of the rare events left in modern politics that people from both sides of the political spectrum will watch at the same time. Even when you have to hold your nose listening to the other guy from time to time can be a learning experience.

That's why I believe we should have more, not fewer debates. Instead of three, I propose six, with the first one immediately after the political conventions. Starting early and sitting the candidates down face to face could change the entire tone of a campaign.

An argument with someone you know, even just a little, is generally conducted on a higher plane than an argument with a stranger. Anything that gives us a different version of events than what we get in these awful negative ads cannot be all bad. The debates are one of the few things that can do that. I hope we'll see more of them.

Back in a moment.

SCHIEFFER: Some of our stations are leaving us now. For most of you, we'll be back with our powerhouse political roundtable and an update on the weather. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: And welcome back now to Face the Nation and joining me our mega panel of some of the best political journalist in the business, Ruth Marcus is an editorial writer for the Washington Post and Columnist; Mark Lebovich writes for the New York Times Magazine; and it wouldn't be a political panel without our own John Dickerson; on the other side, Bob Shrum, longtime Democratic Consultant, now a contributor for the Daily Beast; and John Fund writes for the conservative magazine, The National Review.

Well let's -- you know, we've got to talk about the weather this morning, folks. I -- I thought this would be the one thing that wouldn't be entering into this campaign that has a little of everything else.

Ruth, what you think the impact of this thing could be?

MARCUS: Well, who knew the October surprise was going to be a hurricane? You know, we've had everything else in this campaign, why not that?

I think the really interesting phenomenon with the hurricane or Frankenstorm or whatever we're going to end up calling it, is its intersection with this other new phenomenon which is early voting. We don't really have Election Day in America any more, we have election month.

And the Democrats have actually been a little bit of ahead of Republicans in 2008 and possibly this cycle, they have certainly been feeling very good about their early voting turnout operation, Get Out the Vote is not just get out the vote on Election Day.

And so the extent that the hurricane interferes with that ability in states with early voting and we expect that maybe 40 percent of votes could be early votes this election cycle. That's extraordinary. To the extent it interferes, you could already hear David Axelrod expressing some concern this morning. That could be a problem for Democrats.

SCHIEFFER: So, Bob Shrum, you've watched a lot of them. I mean traditional thinking is that the old people, if the weather's really bad, the old people, I mean me...

SHRUM: And I resemble that remark, too, Bob. SCHIEFFER: ... who might not be able to get to the polls and -- and generally it's the zealots who turn out in -- in the worst weather. They're the ones who make sure they get there.

SHRUM: Yeah, I think older voters, unless they're in a really tough situation are going to go vote because it's almost their avocation, it's a hobby to go vote, not just an obligation.

The -- the Obama organizational advantage and I think he has a real one, may work out here not in the early voting, but in terms of getting people to the polls at the end, I think they have the most in- depth, extensive organization in the history of the country.

But there's another factor here, which is if this storm is bad enough and if tens of millions of people are without power and the seawalls have been breached in New York City, the president's got to get off the campaign trail. He's got to go run the country.

That leaves Mitt Romney in a kind of odd position at that point, too, because he can't look like he's just campaigning.

SCHIEFFER: Yeah, but what does he do, join the National Guard or...

(LAUGHTER)

SHRUM: Well, he might because he -- he doesn't want to look like he's faking it and getting in the president's way, so John McCain raised the bar for the president saying, remember John McCain suspended his -- well he did a couple of times, but once for -- for Hurricane Gustov, they -- they -- and (inaudible) day after the Republican Convention to try and create a sense of "I'm president."

But one of the things that important about taking the president off the campaign trail in terms of this early vote question is when the president comes to town, he is -- he's flypaper and he gets people there to the events.

And what are the campaigns do? They -- they -- they turn those people into volunteers who will then go knock on doors in that final push at the end.

They also turn them into votes in some states. I was in Ohio this week, they were bussing them right from the event, right to the -- to the early polling place -- the early polling place where the Romney forces were watching to see how big of a turnout they were going to get.

If the campaign doesn't visit, if he's not on the trail to have that activity happen, then the early voting kind of has to happen, you know, by its own but without that strong push from the candidate, right, well...

FUND: Yeah, I mean they will send Bill Clinton, Michelle Obama, they'll have other people to do this. SCHIEFFER: But, John what about that? I mean the president can't be out there on the stump if -- if there are people whose lives are in danger.

FUND: No, on the other hand if you're exercising political leadership from the White House, that shows you in command and in charge. So I think it also can show people he's a strong active incumbent.

There's another political storm I worry about, Bob, and it's one we can predict because it's happened before, in Florida 2000, that is if this election is close enough, we could be going to recounts just like Florida. And not just in one state, but in several states.

We now have 10,000 lawyers monitoring the polls this election and I fear that with provisional ballots and absentee ballots and all of these other things that Ruth talked about, we might not have a winner on Wednesday and the one thing all of us should hope for is, the voters make this decision and it doesn't go to the lawyers and the judges.

MARCUS: Amen.

UNKNOWN: That's the first time I ever agreed with you.

MARCUS: Amen.

LEIBOVICH: Yeah, I'm with you too on that.

I do think obviously, you know, the weather is the big X factor here and I -- I agree also with what you said and with -- with -- what Senator McCain said, which is this could be a presidential moment for Barack Obama. I mean this is a moment that he could conceivably step back and show a sort of transcendent level of leadership that goes beyond an individual event cancellation or -- or what have you.

You know, especially if it hits -- and I think people will immediately be looking at him acting in a political way. I mean does Virginia get more attention than, you know, New York, does it go into Ohio?

You know, on the other hand, does the Romney headquarters in Boston lose power?

I mean there are very, very little things that actually could have a very, very big effect at this point.

MARCUS: Well and -- and I think it's a really -- the -- the president knows what the president's supposed to do in a hurricane. Right? You don't just look out the plane window, you try not to disrupt it but you look as involved as possible and deploy and do it as well as possible.

What does the candidate do? Yeah, the other sort of opposition candidate do in the event of a hurricane? We don't actually really have a great guidepost for this because we haven't had an actually disaster this proximate to Election Day.

And he can't be going around completely attacking the Commander in Chief, can he, when Barack Obama's the one who's making sure the sand bags are getting stacked. I think it's a little bit of a conundrum.

SCHIEFFER: You know, another thing that we -- just came up and that is Virginia.

Virginia is one of those places because it is on the East Coast, where the president and Mitt Romney may not be able to get to during this. They may not be able to get to it before the election if this storm hits.

DICKERSON: And the surrogates can't get there either.

I mean that's the thing, nobody can get at it and the reason I think we should explain why Democrats may be disadvantaged on their early vote if -- if it kind of comes to a halt is that what the Democrats are trying to do is, if you look at the polls there, the president does much better with the registered voters than he does with likely voters.

Now, leaving aside the debate about the polls which has gotten quite vigorous, what that represents is that Democrats tend to have difficulty turning up their base as Republicans have.

But when you can vote for a month long, and you can target those as they call them, low propensity voters, this is a buzz word we're going to hear a lot about, Democrats have been targeting those people who just don't always go and vote in midterms, they just vote in presidential.

Well, if they can get all those people to turn out, then that's good. The number of days you lose because of the weather to turn out those people who don't normally turn out, that's a challenge. It's why it's a little more of a challenge from the weather for Democrats on that score.

SCHIEFFER: One thing Governor McDonnell in Virginia is saying he will give priority to getting the power on in -- in the voting places. So...

(CROSSTALK)

SHRUM: There's a -- there's a human tragedy here that we ought to acknowledge that's going to happen in that it's going to call on the president to do this not just because it's politically the right thing to do but because it's the right thing to do if you hold that job.

You then get into the politics of this. Southwest Virginia is probably the heart of the Republican's strength in the state, going to get a massive snowstorm out of this. And so they're going to have to clear that up. And I think it's -- it's absolutely right, if it looks like the president's paying more attention to Northern Virginia than he is to Southwest Virginia, that'll immediately become an issue.

Romney, I think's the only thing Romney can do at that point is go around and give a positive speech about where he wants to take the country. He cannot look like he's attacking the president. He cannot look like he's exploiting this.

I mean one of the reasons in your debate, by the way, and you've -- you've served up a big fast ball on Libya that I think Romney ran away from it was because in that 47 percent tape, there was a little noticed passage where Romney's referred to Desert I, the rescue mission in Iran where we lost eight service members and said if something like that happens, I'm going to be prepared to take advantage of it.

I think the president had that line, I think the Romney people worried he had that line and it would have been a devastating moment.

Romney right now is trying to make himself moderate Mitt, he's in the midst of a moderate makeover. If the weather is really bad, the president's off the campaign trail, he has to behave very carefully.

SCHIEFFER: Let's talk about something -- let's move away from the weather, John. Minnesota poll out today, Star Tribune has the race within the margin of error in -- in Minnesota -- now we've been hearing some of the Romney people who said from the beginning that they thought they had a chance in Minnesota.

The president is still doing well with Independent voters out there but Governor Romney seems to be closing the gap when it comes to women voters. Again, we get back, Ruth, to this whole deal of what's happening on (inaudible).

FUND: Well, look, it's certainly true in swing states, the president is ahead in more swing states than Governor Romney. However, the president job approval rating and his number in all of these states is below 50 percent. That is a danger signal.

SHRUM: It's not true. His approval rating is generally 50 percent or more.

FUND: No it's not. Go to RealClearPolitics.com, you'll see it.

(CROSSTALK)

MARCUS: I'm having flashbacks to the debate, guys.

UNKNOWN: He's all right.

UNKNOWN: I won't interrupt you if you won't interrupt me.

UNKNOWN: But you've got a lawyer to litigate this.

(LAUGHTER) SCHIEFFER: Go ahead John.

FUND: Well, if you go to realclearpolitics.com, the average of all the polls, it's about 47 percent, 48 percent for the president. That's a danger signal for him.

In addition, ever since Denver, the Denver debate, Independent voters have continued to move to Governor Romney and Independent voters are, of course, the deciders.

I believe that the president has to do a little better, both in the swing states and nationally because as an incumbent, if you don't support him now or you're undecided, he's not likely to get those voters on Election Day.

SHRUM: That's wrong. I mean, Nate Silver, who's modeled all of this, and I think has done a pretty good job of it, estimates that if the undecided voters in the swing states right now, slightly over 50 percent are probably likely in the end of those who vote to vote for the president.

Also, if you look at Virginia, Bob, and this new poll the Washington Post has in Virginia, the gender gap has opened up again.

The problem we have is there are so many polls. We are living in a poll-littered universe that we tend to lose sight of the fundamentals. The fundamentals are the president has a structural advantage in the battleground states. He needs to carry far fewer of them than Governor Romney, has many more route to 270.

And secondly, he does have a superior organization on the ground that's been deeply rooted for long time. This has been outsourced by the Romney campaign to the RNC.

SCHIEFFER: I'll let John respond and then we'll take a break.

FUND: You know, there are a lot of outside groups out there that are really getting the vote out for both sides. So I don't think you can just look at the party elements. And as for the 50 percent, the president is below 50 percent in Ohio. There's a poll showing him tied today. He's below 50 percent in almost all of these swing states. If you stay below 50 percent, you stay out of office.

SHRUM: In your poll, by -- the CBS poll in Ohio, he's four points ahead. That's what I mean, about...

FUND: But below 50.

SHRUM: We shouldn't cherry pick polls...

FUND: But below 50.

SHRUM: To make our arguments. We've got to look at the structure...

FUND: That's why I look at the average on RealClearPolitics.com. The average of all the polls still shows him below 50.

SHRUM: He is at 50 percent nationally in a lot of these polls.

SCHIEFFER: Let me just say this, if you guys get in a fight when we take a break I'm not going to break it up. You're going to have to finish it. I'll be back with more in just a second.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CROWD: Four more years! Four more years! Four more years!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: And we're back now.

Ruth Marcus, I want to get back to this business about the women's vote. No question, the president had a big lead there. And there's no question that has closed. Why do you think that is?

MARCUS: Well, I think to the extent that it's closed-- and I don't want to revive the debate about how much it's closed - that reflects Governor Romney's solid and moderate-sounding performance in the debates. And I think to the-- and also to the extent that it's closed, it reflects the larger closure of the polls and the narrowing overall, men and women, post-debate.

But I would like to say that I think there is still a significant gender gap. There has been a gender gap with women favoring Democrats in every election since 1980. There is one now. Women are a majority of the voters. And they are a majority, I think at this point, of the undecided voters.

And i thought there was a very interesting number in the Wall Street Journal/CBS-- sorry, Wall Street Journal/NBC poll the other day, "who do you trust on issues of concern to women?" 53 Obama, 25 Mitt Romney.

And I think one thing that that reflects is this kind of peripheral but simmering debate that we've had during the course of the election about both rape and contraception. And so we recently had the senate candidate from Indiana, Richard Mourdock, making some, I think, unfortunate remarks about how if a pregnancy results from rape the woman should continue it because that's god's intention.

This points out the fundamental problem, I think, that the Republican Party has when it comes to dealing with abortion. They can have one of two positions, either the Republican Party platform position, which is no abortion in any cases, rape or incest, which is rejected as extreme, or you can have the Mitt Romney position in which allows for exceptions, in which case you say, but if abortion is the take of a human life, if the fetus is a person from the moment of conception, why is the method of conception matter?

And I think the Republicans are going to continue to get themselves tied up in this.

FUND: Sure, there are lots of unforced errors here. Abortion is an important issue. But it's not the primary issue most people vote on.

MARCUS: I didn't say that.

FUND: And in 2010, you had a lot of these same errors regarding contraception and other rhetoric, and the Republicans won the congressional vote in 2010 among women. Now, I do believe women care about this issue. But they care on both sides of the issue. Because women are roughly half pro-life and half pro-choice. The real question, there are 600,000 fewer women work today than there were in January 2009. So for a lot of women, they also care about having a job.

MARCUS: Men and women care about having jobs, and I think that women are, of course, on both sides of the abortion debate. But I think that the reason the abortion/contraception debate is more salient now than it was in 2010 is, first of all, that's a different midterm electorate.

But also, women can understand having a debate about should there be abortion rights? Should there not be abortion rights? I think they recoil at being told they have to continue a pregnancy if they're raped. They also recoil at issues about contraception. So to the -- it's not the primary voting issue, but to the extent these are undecided voters and this sort of miasma in the air of are the Republicans too extreme on these issues? That becomes problematic.

FUND: Todd Aiken is within two percentage points of Claire McCaskill.

MARCUS: Not true.

SHRUM: We're now cherry picking polls again.

MALE: This is the last thing the Romney campaign wants to be talking about, rape, contraception, even abortion at this point. And I think -- look, I mean Richard Mourdock, Todd Akin forced this into the conversation. It wasn't there a week and a half ago. It wasn't there before - I mean, it was certainly there, but it wasn't the primary focus. The Romney campaign wants to talk about the economy. And everyone talks about the Denver debate as being this transcendent moment.

I mean, in effect, this was the moment moderate Mitt sort of debuted in the campaign. And I think that was a very resonant point to a lot of undecided women. And I think, a lot of...

FUND: People don't vote nationally on the basis of what two candidates say in two medium-sized debates.

(CROSSTALK)

DICKERSON: Here's the way I think this plays out politically. Is you have -- first of all, there's the base. So the president wants to talk about the issue of abortion, because he wants to tell Democrats hey there are real things at stake in this election. So that's the way the message works with the base.

With the swing voters-- and I've talked to a lot of them both in the battleground states and elsewhere, and when you talk to women, they do on the one hand - on the other hand they think Romney has the answer on the economy. And the worry here for the Obama administration is married women. They are less dependent on the government, and less likely to buy the president's argument. So they're the group that the Obama campaign is really worried about.

So when I talk to the married women what they say is on the one hand they say think Romney can handle the economy, but they're worried about Republicans being too extreme. And they go back and forth. What the Obama campaign is trying to is drop this and get them to think about this at the last minute.

And there are a small number of independent voters -- and going back finally on the question of women with trust. What was the president talking about this week above all else, he was saying trust is a matter central to the presidency, more important than anything else, and trying to tie that to this notion of Romney changing his positions. That was also a pitch to women.

Romney's pitch, bipartisanship.

SCHIEFFER: Let me just bring up this, I spent Friday, spent a good part of the day with Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, separately. These are two bipartisan -- and I would say the most respected analysts going today. Both of them told me separately they could not remember a time this deep into the campaign when they said they had no idea how this was going to come out.

I want to go around the table, I'll just start with you, Bob. What do you think is going to happen?

SHRUM: I think the president is going to win. I think he has a big advantage in the electoral college. And I also think in terms of what John and Ruth were saying that the Republicans as friend of mine who ran Republican campaigns, has said to me they backed themselves into a demographic cul-de-sac, with women, with Hispanics, with younger voters who are repelled by a lot of what they say on social issues.

SCHIEFFER: So you think it's Obama?

SHRUM: Yes.

FUND: I think independent voters continue to move away from the president because he has not been able to convince people the economy will be better in the next four years than this four years. And the president remains under 50 percent. And I have to...

SHRUM: No, doesn't. In many of the states. I'm sorry, John. You want to do the Real Clear Politics - in many of the states, in many-- it didn't. In many of the states he is at 50 percent.

SCHIEFFER: I'm going to give the reporters here a pass on that if you think it's inappropriate. Go ahead.

FUND: I do believe we do have a danger, though, of going to recount. And I hope that we can control the passions that have been exercised..

SHRUM: That's not a passion. You ought to get factual, that's all.

FUND: And one of these days, I won't be interrupting you, but you will continue to interrupt me.

SHRUM: Yes, I will, when you're not factual, I will, actually.

SCHIEFFER: 30 seconds, John.

DICKERSON: The president has demographic advantages and ground game advantages. The question is whether those allow him to hold back the Romney surge that started after the Denver debate but that is now waning and that most analysts think has now, kind of, come to a standstill. The question is whether what the president builds up with his ground game and his demographic advantages help him.

SCHIEFFER: I'm going to have to stop right here. You're not going to have to say who you think...

(UNKNOWN): I didn't have an answer anyway.

MARCUS: Then we can't be wrong.

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

SCHIEFFER: Back in a second. Thank you all a lot.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: In today's world, when everyone comments on everything, even debate moderators get reviewed. So in the interest of full disclosure and fairness, we pass on the following, which is our "Face the Nation" flashback.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIMMY FALLON, HOST, "LATE NIGHT WITH JIMMY FALLON": The final presidential debate was held tonight in Boca Raton, Florida, and was moderated by 75-year-old Bob Schieffer from CBS News.

That's right...

(LAUGHTER)

... 75-year-old Bob Schieffer, yeah, 75 years old, or as Florida residents call that, a 'tween.

(LAUGHTER)

Yeah, when the ladies of Boca got a look at Bob, they're like, "Who's the fresh meat?"

(LAUGHTER)

(APPLAUSE)

JAY LENO, HOST, "THE TONIGHT SHOW": I thought Bob Schieffer did a great job. Before the debate, Bob Schieffer instructed the audience not to clap for any reason because, in his house, that makes the lights go on and off...

(LAUGHTER)

... you know...

(LAUGHTER)

Well, this was not Bob Schieffer's first time. No, no, he also moderated the Bush-Kerry debate in 2004 and the Lincoln-Douglas debate in 1858.

(LAUGHTER)

You know, in today's world, I can take that.

(LAUGHTER) l

We'll be right back with an update on Hurricane Sandy. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: And we're back now with David Bernard of our Miami station, WFOR, for a final update on Hurricane Sandy. David?

DAVID BERNARD, WFOR METEOROLOGIST: Bob, we're looking at a really big storm here. This is the latest information just in from The Hurricane Center, and the storm is moving northeast at 14. It's about 500 miles south of New York City, and the track remains the same. We're looking at a landfall tomorrow night, early Tuesday morning, somewhere between the Long Island Sound and Ocean City, Maryland.

And along and just north of there, there's going to be a tremendous storm surge. Look at the size of the hurricane, already those bands affecting portions of the East Coast. It's really gigantic and the wind field with it is incredible. The tropical storm- force winds by tomorrow morning will reach from Boston all the way to Wilmington, North Carolina, and during the day tomorrow, the hurricane-force wind gusts will overspread most of the I-95 corridor. And those damaging winds are probably going to stick around right into Tuesday. When we see those kinds of winds, Bob, we're going to have to worry about widespread power outages and a lot of downed trees as well. And of course, right there at the coast, the coastal flooding could be quite severe. This is an enormous storm and one that people need to take seriously.

SCHIEFFER: OK. Well, thank you very much, Dave. And we'll stay with you. We'll invite all of you to stay tuned to CBS News and cbsnews.com. We'll have the very latest on the storm. That's it for us here. We'll see you next week right here, if the creeks don't rise, on "Face the Nation."