"Face the Nation" transcripts November 4, 2012

(CBS News) Below is a transcript of "Face the Nation" on November 4, 2012, hosted by CBS News' Bob Schieffer. Guests include Peggy Noonan, David Gergen, Dee Dee Myers, Rich Lowry, John Dickerson, Leslie Sanchez, Anna Greenberg, Stu Rothenberg, Larry Sabato and Anthony Salvanto.

SCHIEFFER: Today on Face the Nation, are you ready for some voting? Katy Perry says she is.

PERRY: Wisconsin, you ready?

SCHIEFFER: While she was making some smooth moves for the president, Kid Rock had his Republican hat on for Romney.

ROCK: Go Romney, (inaudible) Ohio.

SCHIEFFER: The pop stars and the candidates race through the battleground states on one long last lap.

ROMNEY: That's quite a Virginia Beach welcome.

OBAMA: Hello Nevada...

ROMNEY: New Hampshire got me the Republican nomination and New Hampshire is going to give me the White House, thanks you guys.

SCHIEFFER: If there's anything both sides can agree on, this one is close and it's could come down to one states, but which one? Florida? Virginia? (Inaudible).

OBAMA: I -- I think you may have noticed that everybody's paying a lot of attention to Ohio...

SCHIEFFER: And then there's the wild card, what impact will the Super Storm that destroyed parts of New Jersey and plunged the lower half of Manhattan into darkness have on the races?

We've got the latest on Hurricane Sandy damage then we'll turn to the best and the best political reporters, analysts and race watchers to give us their take on the presidential race.

We'll start with Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal, Dee Dee Myers of Vanity Fair, Rich Lowry of the National Review, Harvard University's David Gergen and our own John Dickerson.

Then we'll talk to Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and Republican Analyst Leslie Sanchez of the Impacto Group, and our own CBS News Election Director, Anthony Salvanto.

We're coming to the end of the campaign 2012 and we've got it all on Face the Nation.

ANNOUNCER: From CBS News in Washington, Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer.

SCHIEFFER: And good morning again, most of the country is looking forward to Election Day or at the least, looking forward to the campaign being over; but in large parts of the northeast, it is still the aftermath of the storm that is in the forefront of many people's thoughts.

At least 110 are dead, more than two million are still without power, close to a million in New York City alone. Eighty percent of New York City's subway service has been restored but it may be days before gas shortages are restored and the National Guard has been called in to keep order at gas stations.

The storm has cause an estimated $20 billion in damages, plus an estimated $50 billion in economic losses to the region.

The state of New Jersey was hit hardest and for more on that, we're going to Ben Tracy on Tuckerton Beach. Good morning Ben.

TRACY: Good morning Bob.

This is what so many neighborhoods all along the New Jersey shore look like. They're almost frozen in time. There is really no recovery going on here yet because these areas have just been too dangerous to get into until now. This weekend was really the first time that some many people who live around here are coming back to see how damaged their houses are. Many are finding they have no home at all.

Across New Jersey, you're still talking about nearly a million people without power and that's becoming a real issue because temperatures at night are falling into the low 30s, so it's very cold for the people who have decided not to go to shelters or who don't have anywhere else to go trying to kind of ride this situation out.

Of course, as the days progress here, you will start to see more debris removal, but so many of these areas are simply too hard to get into.

Then you have the issue of gas rationing; people are waiting in line for gas, they're trying to get fuel for their generators so it's a very tough situation here in New Jersey.

Bob?

SCHIEFFER: All right, thank you very much, Ben.

And we'll turn now to the other big story of the week. Of course, this final week in the election and here to give us their thought, their predictions, their hopes, their dreams, our all-star political panel.

Peggy Noonan is the columnist for the Wall Street Journal, was a speech writer for President Reagan. Of course, Rich Lowry, wrote the cover of this week's Time magazine. He also writes for the National Review is a Fox News contributor, John Dickerson, is our CBS News Political Director.

On the other side here, Dee Dee Myers, who was Press Secretary for President Clinton, is a contributor to Vanity Fair now and David Gergen, who worked for Presidents Reagan and Clinton; he is now at Harvard.

So, Peggy, let me just start with you. What do you think the impact of this storm is going to be? Did it hurt Romney, did it help the president?

NOONAN: Well, the impact in the northeast itself has been very bad. A lot of people suffering up there. Some people calling it their Katrina in -- in a very unhappy way, of course, in part because it's cold. It's a cold Katrina and people are without heat and electricity, so it's very tough.

How does it play politically? We'll know in retrospect, I think like everything else in this race, it is not known at this point how it will play. You can argue that the president looked commanding and like a leader when he came up to New Jersey.

You could also argue that things are starting to look a little tough in some of these neighborhoods in New York and Jersey. And so that might work against him.

It -- it -- it's hard to say, but one thing I think is probably clearly true and that is the fact of the storm took the subject matter of Mitt Romney's closing statement, the end of his campaign, his big arguments sort of snuffed that out a little bit for a few days. Inevitably as we all talked about the storm, we weren't talking about the economy,, we weren't doing all of that stuff.

So in some way that may have hurt them and yet at the same time that all that was happening in West Chester, Ohio, he was pulling out 30,000 people on a dark, cold night.

So balance that out.

SCHIEFFER: But -- but what you're saying, I mean I don't think anybody sitting at this table would think that the storm would cause New York to suddenly go Republican or New Jersey...

NOONAN: Oh my goodness no.

SCHIEFFER: ... government politics...

NOONAN: No, no, no.

SCHIEFFER: But I guess -- I guess the question is what we saw in that -- that time period there, does it go out to the rest of the country and have an impact there? What do you think, John?

DICKERSON: Well I think coming out of that, if you look at the question of momentum, which is always hard to define. Coming out of that debate in Denver, Mitt Romney had two kinds of momentum, he had Republicans behind in who felt excited about him afresh. It wasn't just that he was the vessel to beating Barack Obama, they liked him.

I think that momentum stays intact. There was another force propelling after that debate, though and that was undecided voters or soft Republicans who hadn't yet bought the sale on Mitt Romney; came out of Denver doing well with that. That started to dissipate long before Sandy hit.

So then, sort of the president and Mitt Romney were fighting for that second force and what they needed was a last moment that one of the two of them could be in the front pages looking like a person who is of the moment and Mitt Romney lost several days because of the -- the storm, to be the man of the moment and the president, because he was president was the man of the month for those late deciding voters who haven't been paying attention to the race, they turn on their TVs, that's what they see, I think that, to the extent anybody benefits politically that probably helps the president.

UNKNOWN: Bob, there's -- there's a reason why of the ten incumbents who sought office again since World War II, seven have won. The powers go with the presidency and a moment arises when you act presidential and I think he did, I think he handled it very well, that you're going to bump out of that.

I think he got a hurricane bump out of this and it -- and it was part of a bigger tapestry for the week and that is he had a pretty good week. And I think he got some lift out of the whole week. He had not only the way he handled the hurricane, but those we kisses from Governor Christie, who could have imagined?

And -- and -- and Mayor Bloomberg, Colin Powell's endorsement this week, which he's -- he's using as advertisements and he had OK job numbers on Friday. They weren't -- well they weren't good, they weren't bad and he, you know, he dodged a bullet.

So, all that together I think gives him that little cresting that you look for in a campaign right toward the end as you know so well.

SCHIEFFER: Rich, do you think it helped or hurt the president?

LOWRY: I think it helped him at the margins.

Look, it interrupted Romney's argument. It forced the president for a couple of days to act and look presidential, which I think suits him much better than being out there and making jokes about Big Bird and Romnesia and all the rest of it.

Although he's gone right back to that kind of sophomoric tone the last couple of days and the robust embrace from Chris Christie at the very time Romney is trying to make the argument, I'm the guy who can work across the aisle better than the president.

But I'm not sure how long lasting this will be for the rest of the country. For New Jersey and New York, obviously, this is going to be a big story for a long time.

But the new cycle just moves so fast. For the rest of the country, Tuesday morning and they feel like it was a hundred years ago.

SCHIEFFER: Dee Dee?

MYERS: I -- I and I agree it was good for the president and people did get to see him being presidential and he's cool in a crisis. It's one of the things people have liked about him throughout his presidency whether is was the economic crisis or him getting Obama Bin Laden or whatever, he seems cool under fire.

So it reminded them that that's another thing that they like about him. His numbers in the northeast spiked quite a bit, so people either obviously felt good about it and that may -- and those are not swing states, so we're not going to see...

SCHIEFFER: New Hampshire?

MYERS: ... we could possibly -- they didn't get hit as hard but New York, New Jersey, Connecticut but it could drive vote -- vote totals up there for him which could be helpful just not losing the popular vote.

And it was a good week. And -- and -- and add to that, the endorsement by the Economist, which was unexpected. So I think for people who are in the middle, who maybe voted for the president four years ago who are, you know, looking for a reason to vote for or against him, you had Bloomberg, you had Colin Powell, you had the Economist, you had the Mayor -- I mean Governor Christie, so it was a reminder that they feel good about.

SCHIEFFER: Let me just-- I want to play a little video that was sent in to us that I think -- we have a young woman here who speaks for many Americans, maybe even for me. Here's what she had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GIRL: I'm tired of Bronco Bama and Mitt Romney.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's why you're crying? Oh! It will be over soon, Abbey. OK? The election will be over soon, OK.

GIRL: OK

(END VIDEO CLIP) . DICKERSON: Obviously she doesn't have a future in political journalism.

(LAUGHTER)

SCHIEFFER: This campaign has gone on. And why is it? I mean, is it because it was so negative at the beginning? Is that why we're all kind of saying, well-- I mean, I haven't run into anybody who says, "I'm really going to miss these ads." Maybe there is somebody out there.

NOONAN: It has been 18 months. I mean, running for president takes 18 months now. It's constant political stuff on TV, in the neighborhood, part of the national conversation. I have never, up until the past few weeks, heard so many people say, "why can't we do it like England?" Americans don't normally sit around saying why couldn't we be like a...

GERGEN: One of those socialist countries over there?

(LAUGHTER)

NOONAN: They announce an election. Six weeks later they vote. Thank you very much. One of the odd things about this campaign is that when looked at from a certain perspective, it looks like it's actually an economic fact more than anything else, and it the local TV station affiliate Recovery Act of 2012. They are making so much money, because the politicians are buying so many ads. But it's wearing on everybody.

I think everybody feels like, "let's vote. We know where we are."

SCHIEFFER: And does anybody at the table right here think this is not too close to call right now? Does anybody see this breaking substantially one way or another?

Dee Dee.

MYERS: I think it's trending very slightly towards President Obama. I think that the recent national polls have shown him a little bit-- Romney, made up some ground and was leading in most of the national polls for a few days, now either the president is up by one or they're even. So I think we see a little bit of movement toward him and he's holding steady in the swing states, particularly Ohio. He continues to over-perform in Ohio, and nothing has been able to shake voters off of him.

So I think if you're-- and I think one of the other indicators is who do people think is going to win, which turns out to be a pretty good predictor of votes whether it's In-trade or just voters, they think President Obama is going to win.

NOONAN: That's all true, but I have got to tell you, I feel like Romney is coming up. I feel like very quietly so many things in his campaign have come together. He has sort of come into his own. He's having these big rallies. I keep watching them on TV, they're very strong.

GERGEN: Those are signs, too.

NOONAN: His - yes, case has become-- the case he makes is cogent. It's together. His commercials have gotten very good, even as we're all tired of commercials, they've suddenly gotten very good. There's stuff going on there.

GERGEN: Right. I think picking up from on where Peggy is, I don't think it's too close to call. I just think it's impossible to call. And if you look at the polls from afar, clearly, the president has the advantage. He's ahead in most of the battleground states. If he wins the state he's ahead in he's going to easily get the electoral college.

SCHIEFFER: But they're in the margin of error.

GERGEN: But they're in the margin of error.

But the other thing is if you go on the ground -- I was in Ohio this week, and you hear a different story than what you hear on the polls, you hear a lot of enthusiasm on the part of Republicans. They think they can take this. I think there's a -- you can't look at this from 40,000 feet only.

NOONAN: Yes

GERGEN; You've actually got to be there and get the finger tip feel for it.

NOONAN: There's a passion gap among the Republicans and the Democrats. I feel that a lot of Obama supporters I talk to are somewhat resigned. They mean it, but they're resigned. The Romney people in the past six weeks have gone from I am anti-Obama-- therefore, I'm for Romney-- to I like Romney. They have become very pro-Romney.

DICKERSON: That's what the first debate did. And you look, you look at the national polls. It's tied. And the general rule of thumb is if you're a challenger and and incumbent are tied, you'd rather be the challenger. Plus, Romney has an advantage with independents and on the economy. Really big factors.

Then you look at the state polls, and it doesn't seem to be that picture at all. And I think some of these state polls are badly skewed. I mean, there's one out the other day that had a Democratic advantage of nine points in Ohio. If that's really true, Ohio would be Vermont and no one would ever campaign in Ohio. It wouldn't be a battleground state.

SCHIEFFER: All right. Let's just take a quick break here and we'll come back to this in a minute.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: We're back. John Dickerson, I want to go to you. You know, we've been hearing two candidates talk about two very different visions of America as they define it.

But if that's so, why is this election so close?

DICKERSON: Well, because a lot of people are sorting immediately before they hear those arguments. They're sorting by party. And people are more partisan. And in states they're targeted and whipped up along partisan lines. And it's so close in these states because you have the left and right going to their parties and there aren't just that many undecided voters left over because they're either turned off and not participating. The vast majority of people are not participating, And the ones that are participating that are undecided, are still small. And so that number of voters, small -- we don't know where they are. I think David is exactly right. We don't -- it's too close to know what's going on.

I think one other thing we have got to mention that's -- and I know you'll talk about it in your second panel though - is the advantage the president has in the electoral map. If you look at the nine states that are the battleground states, the president has 431 possible ways to get to that magical 270. Mitt Romney has 76. If the president wins Florida, polls suggest and reporting on the ground suggests, it's going Romney's way. But if the president were to win Florida, that leaves just one route to the presidency for Mitt Romney.

The president, on the other hand, can lose Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and still have a route, not a really great one, but he would still have a route. So that's one of the advantages the president faces and he also has a strong ground game they've been working on for two years, which will help make up for it any lack of enthusiasm he may have among younger voters and...

SCHIEFFER: Let me just say, David Gergen, I think the worst of all worlds would be if one of the candidates won the popular vote and other won the electoral college.

GERGEN: I agree. I agree. That's what's happened very rarely in our history

SCHIEFFER: But do you see any possibility that could happen this time?

GERGEN: Theoretically, absolutely. We're in a situation now, where Romney, in several polls is either tied or ahead in the national vote, yet he's behind in the electoral college. So yes, Charlie Cook thinks there's a one in three chance of doing that.

But I think it goes to this question of governing. To me the question no longer has been not who is going to the win, but can the winner govern? Can the winner get us out of this mess that we're in and get the grand bargain and do the other kind of things that need to ignite this country.

And the fact is, as it's narrowed down, it's gotten so close, I think governing becomes harder. I thought at one point Obama could break out of this thing and win a big victory, in which case he'd have a lot of leverage. And I thought at one point Romney could potentially break out.

Now I think neither person is going -- I don't think the winner is going to have a mandate. I don't think winner is going to have a clear mandate. We're really going to have a country that remains bitterly and closely divided and it's tough to govern.

MYERS: And part of that is -- is-- is built into the structure of this. Where the battleground has shrunk to this hand full of contested battleground states. Whereas, you know, 1960, there was an equally close race, president -- soon-to-be president candidate campaigned in 49 states, Richard Nixon campaigned in 50 states. Now you have this final four days. We're campaigning in just a handful of states. All the principles on both sides are in a hand full of states. And it means that there - and it makes by definition the race much more divisive.

You have to drive a wedge when it's a 50-50 race. You can't come up with a broad national message that creates a mandate for governing. The process precludes it.

SCHIEFFER: I think so, too. I mean, this whole battleground state thing we're now into I think it just increases the partisanship.

I saw a thing the other day that Barack Obama's margin in 2008 came from 10 counties in United States. There are 3,000-something - 3,000-plus counties in the United States. If you take 10 counties out of that, Barack Obama would not have won the presidency. The votes are so concentrated. And I think that in itself leads to this partisanship.

LOWRY: Well, it's a function of the geographic and cultural division of our politics. And on what's going to happen next, David, I think you're basically right.

I mean, the president chose to run an almost entirely negative campaign based on destroying Mitt Romney from beginning to the end. But his second-term agenda is basically based on working something out with the congressional Republicans.

(LAUGHTER)

And if he wins, in these circumstances, a very narrow victory, probably, having run this kind of campaign, Republicans aren't going to be more pliable. They're going to be less so.

GERGEN: You think they -- you think they'll be more resistant if he wins?

LOWRY: Yes.

GERGEN: They'll be more resistant in the House?

LOWRY: Yeah. And Romney, on the other hand, getting his stuff done depends really on having a Republican Senate, which looks like a very dicey proposition at the moment. The only way a Republican Senate is going to happen is if Romney wins and, kind of, all those states tip in one direction.

DICKERSON: And also, what's interesting, to your point, Bob, is, if you look at some of these Senate races, they're happening in states that are red or blue but you've got the opposite team winning. So if you look at Indiana, Arizona, Missouri, Massachusetts, states that are either very blue or very red, the Senate races are quite close.

What does that tell us?

It tells us, in the presidential game, where the math is to get you to 270, you spend your time in the close states; you can't waste time in Missouri. President Obama did in 2008. He got a gargantuan last rally. It didn't do him any good. He lost in Missouri. He's not going to spend time in Missouri.

But if you're a Senate candidate, spending time in Missouri as a Democrat, and you've got a candidate who steps in it, as Todd Akin of -- the Republican did, you've got a chance of winning that state.

So while on the presidential map, Missouri looks red, in the Senate race, where you can talk to the voters as a Democrat, you can do OK. The same may be true in Massachusetts, a very blue state where you've got a Republican who's talking about local issues, who can win. But in the presidential race, you don't have the time to spend in those state because they won't get you to 270.

SCHIEFFER: Rich, in 30 seconds, tell me what we'll be saying around this table next week. You don't have to predict who won.

(LAUGHTER)

But whoever won, why do you think he will have won?

LOWRY: Well, I think, if Romney wins, which I, kind of, think is going to happen, it will be because of his message. And it was a message because on change, based on hope and optimism, and based on actually having a plan. That's the closing argument he's pounding away on.

SCHIEFFER: All right. Dee Dee, what do you think we'll be saying?

MYERS: I think we'll be talking -- this has been a very mechanical race. I think we'll be talking about President Obama's ground game, how he redefined getting out -- identifying his voters, getting them to the polls. And I think, if he wins, that will be the difference.

SCHIEFFER: All right. Thank you all. This was a lot of fun, to talk to you.

GERGEN: Thank you.

SCHIEFFER: Back in a moment with some of my own thoughts on voting.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: Some of you who watched the debate may remember that I closed the evening with words from my mother, who said, "Go vote. It makes you feel big and strong."

She was the driving force in my life and she really believed that. To her, it was a qualifier. If you don't vote, you have no right to criticize what happens after the election. She was not bashful about exercising that right, and I feel the same way, but I take it a step beyond that. I like to vote because it is so much fun. And here's a confession. Sometimes voting against someone I don't like is more fun than voting for someone I do like.

And here's the best thing of all. You can vote for or against someone for the best of reasons, the wrong reasons, or no reason at all. It is your vote, and you can do with it as you choose. In fact, you can waste it if you like. You can tell everyone or no one. My wife instructs me not to tell her who I vote for. She's afraid I might disappoint her. So I've never told anyone how I voted, until now. In this new spirit of full disclosure, I'm going to confess that I once voted for Walter Cronkite, but I'm not saying when.

Back in a minute.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: So some of our stations are leaving us now, but for most of you, we'll be back with more on what's going to happen on Tuesday. We'll have a panel of top experts. We'll go through all those battleground states. We'll get a report on the voting and whether it's going to be difficult.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: And welcome back to Face the Nation.

For more in-depth analysis of what is happening out there in the country, we are going to turn to our second panel. These are pollsters and political experts. Leslie Sanchez is Republican strategist. She runs the Impacto Group. Stu Rothenberg is one of the most respected political analysts in the land. He puts out the Rothenberg political reports. Anthony Salvanto is the CBS News political director. He's the director of elections. Anna Greenberg is a senior vice president of the Democratic polling firm Greenberg, Quinlan, and Rosner. And last but not least our old friend Larry Sabato, the political guru of the University of Virginia's center for politics.

Stuart, let me talk to you. And you i talked last week.

STUART ROTHENBERG, POLITICAL ANALYST: We did.

SCHIEFFER: You said, don't look at me, I have no idea who is going to win. And this is what you do for a living.

But right now, how do you think this thing is breaking on this last weekend?

ROTHENBERG: Well, I think the popular vote looks even or close to even, Bob. And I think anybody would be crazy to confidently predict how that's going to go. I still think the electoral college is easier for the president to get to 270. It's not impossible for Governor Romney, but all the pieces have to fit together for him. There are a number of must-win states so it's more difficult.

SCHIEFFER: Well, talk a little bit about that. Why?

ROTHENBERG: Well, when you look at the differences between the national polling and the state polling, it's remarkable. Now Republicans have some problems with the state numbers. They say that most of the state polls are too Democratic. The samples are too Democratic. And in their hearts, I truly believe that the Romney folks and most Republican strategists believe that they have at least an even-money chance on this.

But when you look at the dispassionate polls, the independent polls, the media polls, they seem to mirror the Democratic numbers a bit more.

So it's easier for the president. The president has a slight lead, apparently, possibly, in Ohio. And then you look at the other states, they're either even or a slight advantage to the president, certainly the big states -- Wisconsin, and Ohio, maybe even Virginia.

So it's harder for Governor Romney. But it's close enough that I think many of us are going to wait and see what-- how the vote counting goes.

SCHIEFFER: Anthony, you do all this work for CBS News. You're in charge of our poll and all of that. How do you see this thing breaking down? What do you, the closest of the battleground states are right now?

ANTHONY SALVANTO, CBS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Certainly, certainly Virginia is neck and neck. That's a toss-up. I think Colorado is razor close. I think Wisconsin is really close as well.

And you know, we talk a lot about Ohio. I mean, it's obviously critical. But let's not forget somebody has to got to take two or three, I think, of those, also, to get over the top.

You know, Stuart said something interesting, too, that I want to pick up on about these polls-- because all of this is about those state polls, because all of this is about those state polls. So much of the argument this year has been about the composition of the polls, which means the composition of the electorate. Well, there are too many older folks, too many young, too many Democrats, too many Republicans. But I think that tells you all of this comes down to turnout. Because the pollsters are trying to get a handle on -- everybody is trying to get a handle on who is actually going to show up? Is this going to look demographically more like 2008 or more demographically like 2004? That's what's going to decide this, because frankly, there are very few, if any, undecided voters left.

SCHIEFFER: Larry, you're kind of the world's foremost expert on Virginia politics. What do you think about the state right now?

LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: There are three total toss-ups at my shop - Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire. We called all the other states. And we think the president's likely to win with 277 to 303 electoral votes.

But Virginia is very, very close. And I think it's a lot closer than either side expected. And just to address what Stu and Anthony were saying, I have a lot of good contacts there, obviously. I've lived there all my life. And they really do believe what they're saying, and the Republicans swear to me and they've shared their numbers, Romney is up a point or two in their tracking polls. The Democrats have done the same thing, President Obama is up a point or two in their polls.

Now, I don't think Virginia's representative of the country. I do think the president has an edge in Ohio. I expect him to win Ohio. I expect him to win Wisconsin. I think he's going to win Iowa. And frankly, given the Democratic base in the other states, that's all she wrote.

SCHIEFFER: You know, let me go to you, Lesley, because I want to talk a little bit about Pennsylvania, because a lot of us were putting that pretty much in the Democratic column a good way backs in this campaign. And now in the last week or so, you've seen the Romney folks putting some money in there and saying they really think they have a chance.

I'm not convinced whether they think they have a chance or whether they want us to think they have a chance. All of these things in politics you always have to put it into context.

What is the situation there? Why are they putting this money in there?

LESLIE SANCHEZ, AUTHOR: I would say that the victory team and the Romney team feel very confident that they -- they understand a couple of things we've talked about here. Yes, we're talking about Pennsylvania, to your question, but looking at Ohio and Virginia, I think they're much more competitive. They're more competitive because you're looking at the fact that Governor Romney has closed that gap post-convention. You're seeing a lot more independents move. And they have been since 2009, but move over to the Republican alternative.

And this, again, comes down to being a referendum on the president. As much as everybody wants to break it down and look at polls and statistics and small percentages, individuals are deciding -- these swing voters -- do they want four more years? And I think consistently, they're showing that there's better alternatives for Governor Romney.

SCHIEFFER: Do you really think that you have a chance in Pennsylvania?

SANCHEZ: I think Pennsylvania is competitive. They're putting more -- look, if you look at money, in terms of money and time, the most valuable resources, the Republicans are putting significant dollars there. They're winding that up together with a lot -- look where they're aiming, not only working class white, but also suburban -- suburban women, college educated women, and the resources are there. The ground game's there. They're going to tell you there are 150,000 volunteers. They're doing significantly more in terms of direct voter contact. All of that makes a difference on election day.

SCHIEFFER: I think -- Anna, I think - didn't David Axelrod say he'd shave his mustache if they lost Pennsylvania.

ANNA GREENBERG, GREENBERG, QUINLAN, ROSNER: He did, and a bunch of other ones too, including Wisconsin and Michigan and potentially Ohio as well.

SCHIEFFER: What do you think about it?

GREENBERG: I don't think that they're going to win Pennsylvania. I think they have money to burn. There are so much outside money that the Romney campaign is flush and I think they're making Obama spend money there. But in particular, looking at the suburban voters in the Philly suburbs and college women, that's an area where all of the issues around women are actually really problematic for Romney and for the Republicans. And so not only do I think Pennsylvania is pretty reliably blue, I also think that they have got extra problems, if you will, in the suburban areas because they are so out of step on social issues with those voters.

SANCHEZ: I'm really glad you mentioned that, because I think the Democrats completely over-played their reach to women. Not only did they patronize women by lobbying specifically at social issues, talking only about abortion and contraception. When you interview these women, they are talking about a much broader sense of economic issues. Will I have the financial security to take care of my aging parents? Will my children be able to go to college like we planned?

It is not this redefined sense of looking back to what women's issues are, but looking forward because we are the bread winners.

GREENBERG: With all due respect, there is no data that supports that point. In other words, if you look at - if you do polling and you test these issues-- which I've done in many of the races I work in and many of the races I work in were doing stuff on TV and the mail -- independent women are offended from everything from Akin to Mourdock to the Republican platform, and it is not a narrow set of issues, it speaks directly to women's economic standing. And I think you're going to find at the end of this election with all the post-election research that issues didn't define the election, but for some voters, especially the independent women, who are sort of the holy grail in this election, they were very important.

ROTHENBERG: I want to get back Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota and away from women -- not that I'd want to get away from women - but what we saw in 2004 here, all three of these states were really close. John Kerry won them narrowly between two and four percentage points. They're competitive races, competitive states. If we have a competitive race -- and we are-- it's not surprising that these are real contests. The problem for the Republicans is getting over that hump.

Yes, they can get to within two or three points in these states, but winning them that is awfully hard. And are you really going to tell me -- Leslie, maybe you will -- that Mitt Romney is going to win Pennsylvania, but have a hard to winning Virginia, and Colorado, and Ohio? No. SANCHEZ: Well, I'm not -- to the point of Pennsylvania, I think it's a much more difficult task, there's no doubt. Let's just say the scenario conceding that, New Hampshire, give Iowa, give Wisconsin, give Minnesota, let's just move that off the table, the competitive battleground Republicans are looking at, at the top, Ohio and Virginia. Because...

SCHIEFFER: Larry, talk a little bit - you said you've got them all - at your shop, you figured it all out except for...

SABATO: No, we haven't figured it out. We guessed. We guessed to this point, Bob.

SCHIEFFER: I guess I have to ask the following - so tell me what you found out.

SABATO: Well, essentially, you know, we rely not just on polls but also the election models and punditry that come out of the field of political science. Now, Stu you're a political scientist, too. I don't want to - so is Anthony.

SALVANTO: That's right, and Anna is, too.

SABATO: I think you can look at everything. And the truth is, history matters enormously. As Stu was just saying, look, you can see Pennsylvania getting close. I can also see Minnesota getting close. But I can't the Republican get the last one or two percentage points. So you have to look at the history of each state, not just what polls with a margin of error of three or four or five percent are saying on any given day.

There's more stability to this system than we're acknowledging.

SCHIEFFER: But talk about -- you said in these battlegrounds - you've -- where do you see these battleground states?

SABATO: Well, I see Florida going to Romney. Although, I've got to say, Romney is closer to losing Florida than Obama is close to losing Ohio. Now that tells you something. I think North Carolina is Romney's. I think, as I said, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa are all going to go to Obama. New Hampshire is tight as a tick, it Colorado is tight as a tick, and Virginia is tight as a tick.

Nevada is Obama's. And there we are.

The rest of them aren't competitive.

SALVANTO: And I would say this, as we look at this on election night early on, even if these states are close, even if Obama wins a Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, we may not know that right that away because they're really close. I think they only break if there's a very giant wave, and frankly, none of us see that coming.

SCHIEFFER: You think we're going to be there late?

SALVANTO: Oh, yes.

GREENBERG: It depends what happens in Florida. I mean I actually think Florida is a toss-up. And if you look at the early vote, it leans pretty heavily Democratic. And in fact in a lot of these states where Obama is ahead by a point or two, the early vote is Democratic. The Republicans have caught up, but it's still Democratic leaning.

SCHIEFFER: My sense is we'll be waiting to see what in fact happens in Nevada and especially in Colorado.

SALVANTO: I agree with you.

Once we get Ohio, once we know Ohio, then we've got to look out west. Like I said, they need something else to go over the top. But we'll also be there late because of the senate. I don't suspect we'll know senate control until pretty late, until after we see North Dakota, until after we see Montana as well.

ROTHENBERG: Arizona.

SALVANTO: And Arizona as well.

So, yeah, we've got a late and I think exciting night ahead. But some of these, especially all of these states, too, that we've been talking about, their counts are going to come in over the course of a couple of hours. So we'll have some suspense building there.

SCHIEFFER: All right, let's take a little break here and then we'll come back and talk about this some more. We'll be back in a minute.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: Well, this race has been close from the very beginning, but Stu you saw a shift about a week ago.

ROTHENBERG: About a month ago, Bob. When you look at the end of September, right before that first presidential debate, it looked like when you fast forwarded a month it looked like we would be sitting here and know who was going to win. And that first debate fundamentally altered the race, it fundamentally raised some questions with some swing voters, white working class voters, about the president, about his enthusiasm, energy. But also it changed the image and impression of Mitt Romney. Suddenly he became not the ideologue, but more the problem solver, the business guy, not the just - not simply the conservative Tea Party Republican - most of us don't think he ever was a conservative Tea Party Republican - but the Democrats saw that image.

And that debate, I think, fundamentally changed things. And if you look at the most recent polls in terms of image, Mitt Romney's favorable is significantly up. A number of polls have him virtually even with the president.

So, Romney's reputation and his ability to alter the initial picture of him, the Democrats ran, you know, ads over the summer and going - right before the conventions Mitt Romney doesn't care about you. The debate changed everything.

SCHIEFFER: So why is that, Larry?

SABATO: Well, it was because, I guess, what, a couple of hundred millions dollars was spent defining Romney in negative terms, and then people saw him up close, and said, "gee, he's not such a bad guy." You know, so the real life contradicted the television advertising.

But, Bob, just to add a footnote here. I agree with what Stu has said about October 3, the first debate, but I also look in close races for the last-minute trend that may lift one candidate a point, a critical point. What happened this last week? Hurricane Sandy lifted President Obama because he was presidential and Mitt Romney was forced off the stage for three days. And the president dodged a bullet on jobs on Friday. Those two things in combination I think pushed Obama up and over the top in several of these very close states.

SCHIEFFER: Let's let Anna and Leslie...

GREENBERG: First of all, Mitt Romney had to run as a right wing Tea party guy in the primary. So it wasn't just Democratic money. He defined himself that way. And the Republican platform was about as conservative as it's ever been. So it wasn't just Democratic money that sort of created that image. I think, though, that to follow up on Larry's point, I think that the economy, people actually-- if you look at people's perception of the economy and the number of people who say it's getting better, worse, or the same, the better number has been going up. If you look at people's assessment of the economy, consumer confidence has been going up.

This jobs report is not dodging a bullet. It's actually consistent with what most Americans think about the economy. That it's getting better. They don't think it's great, they think we still need to do a lot, but we are in a much better place than we were -- even on direction of the country. We still have a majority of people saying the country is going in the wrong direction, but it's about 15 point down from 2010 and 2008.

So I think that, you know, the jobs report actually builds upon a narrative that people actually feel like the economy is getting better.

SCHIEFFER: Do you think hat the storm hurt Mitt Romney, Leslie?

SANCHEZ: I think it-- it benefited the president. Let's put it that way. Which is a distinct difference. I agree, he looked very presidential. I think Governor Christie looked good.

You know, at this point -- the sad case is when you see true bipartisanship, people were skeptical. Like in the media we're like why are they working together? That's what government is supposed to be doing.

SCHIEFFER: Yes.

SANCHEZ: That's what was frustrating about the coverage and just the way people talked about it. I think it's America coming together for the better part of America - for the best interest of America. So very good.

You know, now that you have the residual effect of it's a bigger storm than people anticipated, the recovery is going to be more difficult, there's some aftermath. I agree with Peggy Noonan, probably, you're not going to know until later really where the blame and such falls.

But to the point of the economy, I think it's very important -- there are some basic past statistics, important things -- 1800 people a day are losing their homes in foreclosures. You have these families who are very concerned about financial stability and taking care of their parents, taking care of their children. These are the ones that are saying these are the policies of President Obama that has put us here. I like him personally, but I don't necessarily agree that he's going to be part of the solution. And he has yet to offer one word of solace or solution that gives them that relief.

That's why the momentum, I would couple it with the election of 2010 is with Republicans, closing the gap in Colorado, in Virginia, and in Ohio. And that's what... SCHIEFFER: Anthony?

SALVANTO: On the point about the economy and bipartisanship, it's interesting, even on what might be objective facts, we see a partisan split. Most Democrats think the economy is doing OK. Most Republicans in polls say that it's bad. So they can't even agree on that. But it's also part of why this thing itself is so close to 50- 50 today.

So when we look at the exit polls Tuesday night and we're talk about views on the economy, you know, remember that there's a lot of that partisan coloration in there, too.

ROTHENBERG: And I would simply add that I agree entirely.

I think we could have predicted this. I think most of us did expect this kind of election a year or two ago. Why? Without looking at these polls over the last six months. Why? Because the country is evenly decided between Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives, folks on the coast, and folks in the middle. Some of the people in the middle think like folks on the coast if you live in Asheville, North Carolina, or if you live in Austin, Texas. But this is the country.

SCHIEFFER: What about -- let's talk about the congress, the House and the Senate. I think most people think the House is going to stay Republican. 53 Democrats in the Senate now, 47 Republicans. Is that going to stay about same or...

SABATO: Yes. I think it's going to be almost exactly the same, which is amazing because the Democrats have far more seats to defend than the Republicans do this year. And you had more Democrats retiring. This was a great opportunity for Republicans.

If I had to guess, I would say Democrats would end up with 52 or 53 seats. They have 53 now.

In the House. you're going to get about the same number of Republicans you've got now.

It relates to the 50-50 country. We could end up with a 50-50 nation and a status quo election with the incumbents essentially re- elected in all three parts of the Federal government.

SCHIEFFER: And what's kind of interesting about that, I can't recall a time in my lifetime when the approval rating for the congress has been lower than it is. And yet we wind up with the same cast of characters? Why is that, Stu?

ROTHENBERG: I think it's clear that Democrats blame Republicans, Republicans blame Democrats, everybody can agree that they don't like congress, although congress' numbers are starting to inch up the past few weeks, but still held in low regard. But each side is blaming the other guy.

I think Larry is right, we're going to see minimal changes in the House, anything from a tiny Republican gain to a modest Democratic gain. The Senate, we're anywhere from no change to Republican gain of two or three seats.

And it's-- the senate is disappointing to the Republicans. They're not going to win a seat in Missouri they should have won. They may well are likely lose a seat in Indiana they should have held on.

SALVANTO: Redistricting had a lot to do with that, too, as you have written about so well. You know, Republicans often consolidated their gains. And Democrats hung on to theirs. And there just aren't that many competitive districts in the House now.

GREENBERG: Well, and there are also some structural problems which is, in 2008, a lot of the seats that Democrats won and then lost in 2010 are basically Republican seats. So there are fewer opportunities to pick up -- I think that Democrats will pick up two to four, maybe six seats tops.

But there's just -- it's just going to be a long slog back to majority. It's not going to happen in '08 (sic).

SCHIEFFER: Let's end this panel as I did the other panel. I'll start with you guys here on the end. What will we be saying next week around this table and why will we say the person who won, won?

SANCHEZ: That the momentum was definitely a part of the 2010 election. For republicans it was a continuation, 24 months later, moving to change the government.

GREENBERG: You know, it will be Obama re-elected because people agree with his position on the economy and the status of women in society.

SCHIEFFER: All right, well, that settles it. It doesn't settle it, because I'm told we have 30 seconds more.

(LAUGHTER)

SALVANTO: Now I'm on the spot. I think next week we'll be saying, boy, that was an awfully late night, Bob.

SCHIEFFER: All right. Larry, quickly?

SABATO: Status quo election and we're facing a really tough, divided, gridlocked four years.

ROTHENBERG: Divided government, how are we going to deal with these tough problems that we have, and over the last two, how are we going to deal them in the next two?

SCHIEFFER: All right. Well, thank you all. We'll be back with our "FACE THE NATION Flashback," and it's a good one. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) SCHIEFFER: Knowing this could be one of the closest elections ever, and that it could come down to one state, may excite you, but it sends a shiver up the spine of those of us who were there election night 2000. We'll never forget that one and it's our "FACE THE NATION Flashback."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SCHIEFFER (voice-over): We knew from the start it was a close one that probably hinged on Florida.

DAN RATHER, FORMER CBS ANCHOR: It's generally considered to be so close that it may be a long while before anybody is able to call it.

SCHIEFFER: If only we had stopped there, but, no. Just before 8:00 all the networks called Florida for Gore.

PETER JENNINGS, FORMER ABC ANCHOR: ABC News projects Al Gore wins the state of Florida.

TOM BROKAW, FORMER NBC NEWS ANCHOR: NBC News projects that he wins the 25 electoral votes.

JUDY WOODRUFF, FORMER CNN ANCHOR: CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column.

RATHER: Florida goes for Al Gore.

SCHIEFFER: In a matter of hours, we all took that back and said Florida was too close to call.

ED BRADLEY, CBS CORRESPONDENT: You will have 30,000 absentee ballots that aren't going to be counted until tomorrow.

SCHIEFFER: Just after 2:00 a.m., we reversed our original call and said Bush had won Florida and was the next president of the United States.

RATHER: Bush wins.

SCHIEFFER: Less than two hours later, we retracted that call and said the election was just too close to call.

SCHIEFFER (on camera): This is no longer an election. This is like "Alice in Wonderland." I mean, we just get "stranger and stranger" as Alice said, if I quote her correctly. And she's as good a person to quote right now as anybody I know.

AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Good evening...

SCHIEFFER (voice-over): So Al Gore won the popular vote but it would be well into December before the Supreme Court ruled that George Bush had won Florida, and with it, the presidency.

GEORGE W. BUSH, 43RD PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I, George Walker Bush, do solemnly swear...

SCHIEFFER: Our "FACE THE NATION Flashback."

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCHIEFFER: And that's it for us today. We hope you will join us Tuesday night starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern for our CBS News election night coverage. Then we'll see you here next Sunday on FACE THE NATION and find out how smart we all are, or not.