Full transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Nov. 3, 2024
On this "Face the Nation" broadcast, moderated by Margaret Brennan:
- Sen. Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida
- Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, Democrat of Nevada
- CBS News director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto
- David Becker, Samantha Vinograd and Chris Krebs
Click here to browse full transcripts of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan."
MARGARET BRENNAN: I'm Margaret Brennan in Washington.
And this week on Face the Nation: It's down to the final hours of campaign 2024, and election night is shaping up to be an epic cliffhanger.
Barnstorming the battlegrounds on Saturday, both presidential candidates stumped for every last vote, with their arguments ranging from the serious…
(Begin VT)
KAMALA HARRIS (Vice President of the United States (D) and U.S. Presidential Candidate): This is not someone who is thinking about how to make your life better.
(CHEERING)
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: And this is someone who is increasingly unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance.
(CHEERING)
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: And the man is out for unchecked power.
DONALD TRUMP (Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate): We got to put America first.
(CHEERING)
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: And we will stop illegal immigration once and for all. We will not be invaded. We will not be occupied. We will not be overrun. We will not be conquered.
(End VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: … to the silly.
(Begin VT)
MAYA RUDOLPH (Actress): I'm going to vote for us.
(LAUGHTER)
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: Great. Any chance you are registered in Pennsylvania?
(LAUGHTER)
MAYA RUDOLPH: Nope, I am not.
(LAUGHTER)
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: Well, it was worth a shot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MARGARET BRENNAN: The day capped a wild week on the campaign trail filled with distractions that drew America's attention to two key voting blocs, Latinos and women, first the fallout from a racist joke that fell flat.
(Begin VT)
TONY HINCHCLIFFE (Comedian): A floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now, yes, I think it's called Puerto Rico.
(End VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Democrats jumped on the Trump campaign misstep, but when the current president bungled his party's message of inclusion…
(Begin VT)
JOE BIDEN (President of the United States): The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.
(End VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: … the former president played up Biden's unforced error and sharpened his plea for the hotly contested Latino vote.
(Begin VT)
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I love the Hispanics. I love them.
(End VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: The battle of the sexes, at least in the voting booth, is also considered crucial in these final days.
(Begin VT)
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I'm going to do it, whether the women like it or not. I'm going to protect them.
(End VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Harris is already running well ahead when it comes to women. Will the gender gap widen with Trump's sexist comments and his violent rhetoric, like this mention of Liz Cheney?
(Begin VT)
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: She's a radical war hawk. Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let's see how she feels about it when the guns are trained on her face.
(End VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: We will talk about it all with two key senators, Florida Republican Marco Rubio and Nevada Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto.
Plus, reality checks on the state of the economy and election security.
It's all just ahead on Face the Nation.
Good morning, and welcome to Face the Nation.
More than 76 million Americans have voted already. That's almost half of those expected to. Our CBS News polling updated overnight shows what we have known for some time. The contests in the seven battleground states are all essentially tied, as they're within the margin of error.
We have reporters in all seven states, and we will hear from four of them today, starting with our Caitlin Huey-Burns, who is in Greensboro, North Carolina – Caitlin.
CAITLIN HUEY-BURNS: Margaret, former President Donald Trump campaigned here in Greensboro last night and is returning to the state today and tomorrow, all a sign that this state is up for grabs.
(Begin VT)
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We can't take a chance of losing the great state of North Carolina.
(End VT)
CAITLIN HUEY-BURNS: The Tar Heel State has been reliable for Republicans. No Democrat has won it since 2008.
But of all the states Trump won in 2020, his victory in North Carolina was the closest. And both campaigns are competing for voters on the same turf. In fact, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris touched down here at the same time yesterday. Their planes literally parked next to each other on the tarmac.
And Democrats hope the state's changing demographics and voters' views on abortion access work in their favor. Republicans, meanwhile, are encouraged by the number of their voters who have already cast ballots. Early voting ended here yesterday.
NIKOLE KILLION: I'm Nikole Killion in Georgia, where both candidates are making last-minute stops this weekend. The Peach State has been in place since President Biden flipped it in 2020.
According to the secretary of state, over four million ballots have been cast. That's more than three in four who were expected to vote this year. Some of the highest participation totals are coming from Republican strongholds outside of Atlanta, something GOP sources tell us they're encouraged by.
But top Democrats in this state believe they're also competitive. Plus, more than a million black voters have cast ballots. That is a critical demographic, particularly for the vice president, although the former president is trying to siphon off support.
This weekend marks the last time that Harris and Trump will likely be in Georgia, but their running mates will be here. And both campaigns have events planned through the election, with the goal of capturing this state's coveted 16 electoral votes.
KRIS VAN CLEAVE: I'm Kris Van Cleave in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Already statewide, nearly half of registered voters have cast their vote either in person early or by mail. And that comes after a push by both parties to get people out early, and includes almost everyone at this Vance rally in Scottsdale, on the ballot, a closely watched Senate race and abortion.
Voters leaning towards Trump tell us immigration and inflation are key issues. Voters leaning Harris see different solutions for the border and are focused on women's rights and protecting democracy. One place where both sides agree is concerns over voter fatigue due to a longer-than-usual ballot that could lead to delays for those voting on Tuesday.
Local leaders say security will be tight.
WEIJIA JIANG: I'm Weijia Jiang in Philadelphia, where the Harris campaign says volunteers have knocked on nearly one million doors in Pennsylvania in the last 24 hours alone.
Her team believes that an aggressive ground game will drive up Democratic turnout among her base, while the Trump campaign has also worked to expand support from voters of color, especially black and Latino men.
Another top line here in Pennsylvania, the battle of the sexes. A Trump campaign senior adviser says they are banking on a big boost from men and going after those who usually don't vote, especially in rural areas.
But the Harris team is confident that women, including moderate Republicans, will seal the deal for a victory. One group of Harris supporters we spoke with made up of women who identify as lifelong Republicans say they have talked to thousands of so-called silent Harris voters in the suburbs who plan to vote for the vice president, even though they won't admit it, even to their husbands.
(Begin VT)
WOMAN: We have had a lot of women express a genuine discomfort or almost a fear of telling other people in their lives that they're going to vote for Kamala Harris.
(End VT)
WEIJIA JIANG: But a senior Trump campaign official tells us they do not believe there are enough of those voters to make a real difference.
Both nominees plan to hold multiple events in Pennsylvania before Election Day. In fact, Harris will spend all tomorrow storming the state, with several stops ending right here in Philly for her grand finale campaign rally – Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: That's Weijia Jiang in Philadelphia.
We go now to Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio.
Good morning to you, Senator.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO (R-Florida): Good morning, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: In recent days, the Harris campaign has said they have seen favorable movement towards them with Latinos and with undecided voters, particularly following that New York rally we referenced there, with the insult comment, making remarks about Puerto Rico.
You've been focused on outreach to Hispanic voters for the Trump campaign. Are you concerned that this unforced error hurt outreach?
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Well, there was no unforced error. I mean, a comedian made a joke, and it was tasteless, but it wasn't Trump that said it.
It wasn't – this guy is not going to be in his Cabinet. I mean, this comedian is not going to be a member of his government. He's certainly not running for anything. It was a comedian who tells tasteless jokes all the time. I encourage everyone to, well, I guess watch segments of the Tom Brady roast, and you'll see the kind of jokes he tells. He's an insult comic.
Look, there's no new outreach to…
MARGARET BRENNAN: At a Trump rally.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Yes. I mean, I don't know.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Hired by the campaign.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: He spoke two hours before Trump.
Well, again, I think what's more relevant, if you want to say – so, it had to be done in hindsight, the guy probably doesn't get invited, OK, especially with a joke like that.
But I think more relevant is the fact that the sitting president of the United States said out loud what most people in the Democratic Party and hierarchy believe, and that is that anyone who votes for Donald Trump is garbage, is a racist, is a hater, is a Nazi, as – as the vice president candidate of theirs has accused anyone who attended the Madison Square Garden rally.
MSNBC was running images of Nazi rallies from Germany side by side with images from Madison Square Garden a week ago. So, there – you asked me, why are they so confident?
If you're so confident about victory, the way that the Harris people say they are, then why would you be out there attacking not Donald Trump, attacking anyone who is thinking about voting for him by labeling them as, if you vote for Donald Trump, you're this evil, horrible human being?
That doesn't seem to be like the actions of a confident campaign. It seems to me like the actions of a scared one.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, I was speaking specifically about that – that outreach that you've been doing to Hispanic voters. It sounds like you think this is negligible.
But let me ask you about women voters, because we're seeing in our data that the Trump campaign may have an issue there.
Here's what former Trump administration U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said this past week about that Madison Square Garden rally.
(Begin VT)
FORMER GOVERNOR NIKKI HALEY (R-South Carolina): This bromance and this masculinity stuff, I mean, it borders on edgy, to the point that it's going to make women uncomfortable. You have got affiliated PACs that are doing commercials about calling Kamala the C-word. Or you had speakers at Madison Square Garden referring to her and her pimps.
That is not the way to win women.
(End VT)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Do you share the former governor's concerns that this is a vulnerability?
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Well, first of all, I want to point out, and no one talks about this, Kamala Harris has a bigger problem among men than Donald Trump does among women.
Are there women that are going to vote for Kamala Harris? Of course. Are there women that don't like Donald Trump? Of course. Are there women that are going to support Donald Trump? Yes, there are, a lot of them.
And I think you'll see that bear out on Election Day. Ultimately, the bottom line is that what this election is going to be about, when people go vote, they're not – they're going to be voting on three things that are critical to them. How much does it cost to live in this country, and can you afford the things that people work hard to be able to afford? Because over the last four years, they have not.
Do you feel safe and secure? And the answer is, no, people do not face – feel safe and secure, when you have dangerous criminal elements entering this country across the open border that Kamala Harris allowed. And number three is, how close is this country to being dragged into some sort of global conflict?
We now have troops from North Korea side by side with Russians on the ground in Ukraine. We're edging closer every single month to some broader global conflict that could involve the United States. And guess who's going to have to go fight in those wars? The sons and the daughters and the children of the people who are going to decide this election, and that includes over half the country, which is women voters.
That's what's going to be on people's mind, and that's what should be on their mind, because that's what's at stake in this election.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, in terms of safety and security, that sound bite a moment ago from Donald Trump talking about training guns on the face of Liz Cheney, the Trump campaign…
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: That's not what he said.
MARGARET BRENNAN: … says that was about foreign policy.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: It was…;
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, we just played it for our viewers and listeners who heard it.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Right.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Isn't it possible to make the case without using rhetoric like that?
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: But Donald Trump doesn't talk like someone who's been in Washington for 30 years.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Training guns on her face?
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: He doesn't say it the way I would have said it. No, but that's not what he said, Margaret. You guys know that. Come on.
I mean, everybody knows exactly what he was saying. What he was saying is…
MARGARET BRENNAN: We played the sound bite.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: … you're so much in favor of war.
Yes, you – no, you played a piece of the sound bite, because, in another piece of it, he said he would give her a gun to go stand in conflict as well. You don't normally give a gun to someone that is going to be facing a firing squad, which is what much of the media made it sound like.
The point he was making is not a new point. It is a point that has been made by people in both parties for decades. And that is, you're all for war, and it's easy to be for war when you're in some fancy building and you're safe and sound in Washington, D.C.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Let's see how much you are for war when you yourself get deployed into combat. That's the point that he was making.
That he uses language that maybe is not what we typically hear from someone that works at a think tank…
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: … well, fine.
But I think it's truly, not just unfair, it's egregious to see that reported the way that it was, along with other things that are out there. I have never seen such a concerted effort.
And, look, I have always believed there's bias, because no one's unbiased, but I have never seen such a concerted effort like what I have seen, especially in the last two weeks, among multiple media outlets in this country to, in some cases, breathlessly distort and lie about what's being said and to create and manufacture these gotcha moments against Donald Trump.
I have never seen it before.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Senator…
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: It's over the top.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Senator, you are the ranking member on the Senate Intelligence Committee. You also know that former commander in chief is not just some guy off the street, and words matter.
U.S. intelligence has specifically warned…
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: They do matter. They do matter.
MARGARET BRENNAN: … specifically warned about the risk of political violence in this country, some of it stoked by foreign adversaries, Iran trying to do that, Russia trying to do that, in the days after the election.
Are you confident in the security and the integrity of the election?
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Well, I'm confident in the security and integrity of the elections, and especially because we have strong systems across this country.
It's spread across 50 states. That doesn't mean there aren't going to be problems. We saw problems earlier in the week in Pennsylvania, and they were resolved by a court, where people were not allowed – being allowed in one county from accessing their on-demand mail ballot at the spot. There are going to be issues like that.
They're being confronted at the front end, and those things are being looked at. Look, in the state of Michigan, we know now – and this is not me making it up. I can't believe it hasn't received more coverage. A Chinese national registered to vote and voted. And now he's being charged for doing that. But guess what? His ballot is going to count.
We know at least one noncitizen's ballot is going to count in Michigan because they don't know which ballot it is and they can't retrieve it. These are facts. Now, whether that's widespread or not, I hope not, but these are things that are happening, and they need to be watched at.
As far as foreign adversaries, sure. I mean, Iran wants to kill Donald Trump. Iran – this has been fully documented. They are trying to kill Donald Trump. You talk about violent rhetoric. He's the only candidate in this race, and not because I wish this on anybody else, who's had not one, but two assassination attempts against his life.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. So…
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: So, of course we're all concerned about it.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right.
In terms of the case you talked about in Michigan, we have tracked that. The secretary of state of that state has actually brought charges, has made that public. That individual may actually be deported…
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Yes. But that vote's still going to count.
MARGARET BRENNAN: … may actually be deported because there are laws in this country that punish people…
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: They are. But the vote still counts.
MARGARET BRENNAN: … when they are illegal, and they try to vote in federal elections. That 19-year-old is going to face some consequences.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Correct. But the vote still counts.
He is. And he's going to – but his vote still counts. His vote will still be counted.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Understood. I'm just trying to make clear that there are systems…
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: But that's a big deal. I think that's a big deal.
MARGARET BRENNAN: … as you pointed to, as the courts are also playing a role here.
I need to ask you about China, though. This massive and pervasive hacking by China of U.S. telecom companies is significant. Your colleague Mark Warner said it's the most significant breach he has ever seen in his entire time on the committee.
Do you know if China has been able to access the audio of Americans' phone calls?
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: Well, I'm not going to comment on what they access, but I agree with Mark Warner's statement.
It is an egregious, outrageous and dangerous breach of our telecommunications systems across multiple companies. I will leave it at that. I think, as time goes on, we're going to learn more about it. Some of it will be made public. I think there's more that's still being gathered.
It's a very serious situation that we face and I think one that is quite threatening, maybe not directly to the election…
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: … per se, but certainly to the national security of our country moving forward. It's a vulnerability that no one imagined or anticipated.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm.
SENATOR MARCO RUBIO: But here it is.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Understood.
Senator Rubio, thank you for your time today.
We'll be back in a minute.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: We're joined by Nevada Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who joins us from Las Vegas.
Good morning to you, Senator.
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nevada): Good morning.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We're going to be tracking your state very closely and all six of its electoral votes.
In this early vote, we've seen half of Nevada's active registered voters have cast ballots, and there's some anxiety among Democrats because Republicans currently have a lead statewide. Are you confident the remaining ballots will close that gap and deliver the state to Harris?
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: Well, Margaret, I can tell you a couple of things.
One, I am optimistic that we are going to win, not only for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, but for Jacky Rosen, in this state. I am absolutely confident in our ground game, in our canvassing and knocking on doors and talking to our voters, because that's literally what matters here, is making sure that our voters, who are paying attention now in a swing state like Nevada, that somebody is talking to them, because there's so much information out there.
And now is the time for us to connect with our voters and talk to them about the issues that they care about. So, yes, I am very, very confident.
And the only other thing, let me say this, Margaret, is, you know, I was reelected just recently, and there was a Republican advantage in my race, in my midterm, and I won. Not only did I win. Our congressional delegation won. And so we also won our – our state seats in our state House.
So what we know in Nevada, it is really about that organization. It's knocking on those doors. It's phone-banking. It's talking to our voters.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm.
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: We also have a large population of our voters who are nonpartisan. Over a third are nonpartisan. And those are the independents in other states, and they lean Democratic. They leaned my way.
And so I am very, very confident that, as we are working our ground game, we're going to organize our way to victory here.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You – you mentioned your victory in 2022. That was just by 8,000 votes. So this – this could be a tight one as well this time around.
The Trump campaign talks about making inroads with the working-class population, in particular, on the issue of the economy. Your state has the second highest unemployment rate in the country. The majority of voters do not have a college degree.
Why shouldn't the Trump campaign be confident that they are making inroads with this key demographic?
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: Well, a couple of things, Margaret. You talked about my – my tight race. They're always tight in Nevada. It's a swing state. They're always close. It's always within the margin.
And that's why it is important you get out and talk to voters and you don't take anyone for granted. And you're right. A large part of our population, our service industry, those are high school-educated individuals. That's my family. They worked in this industry.
And these are the individuals we want to talk to. But we also have been engaging them on the issues that matter to them. And if you look at our strong organized labor, which is the culinary, which is made up most of the service industry, along with our building trades, they're knocking on those doors in favor of the Democrats, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
So there is this outright concerted effort by everyone to make sure our voters understand who is – what's at stake here. And there's a stark difference. I mean, you know, let me just say…
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: … because this is important for voters to know this, that Kamala Harris has already talked about, she wants to represent everyone. She wants to lift everybody up.
No matter who voted for her, she's going to represent them. She's going to start day one with a to-do list to how she works on the issues that she knows that many voters are challenged with. Donald Trump is going to walk in the Oval Office with an enemies list. There's a difference between the two.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm.
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: And when you talk to voters about it who are expecting that in Nevada, in a swing state, that makes the difference in whether or not we are going to win. And we are going to win.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But does your party – we played what the current president, Joe Biden, said about Trump supporters, and some have compared that, Republicans have compared that to what Hillary Clinton said about a basket of deplorables.
Does your party have a disdain problem in talking down to working class voters in particular?
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: Well, I can tell you here in Nevada in general – first of all, let's just say, but – we know this, that President Biden clarified his statement, and Kamala Harris has made it very clear she wants to represent everyone, no matter…
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, he quibbled about an apostrophe in the transcript.
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: But – but Kamala Harris made it very clear moving forward that she wants to represent everyone, right, no matter whether you voted for her or not.
And whoever you vote for, you shouldn't be criticized for that. And she's made that very clear.
What – what I hear from voters in Nevada – and this is where the – where it's relevant, not the spin rooms, not the polls, not what you're hearing on the national news, but what are voters saying, and what do they care about? And they're listening.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm.
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: And I can tell you, my voters in Nevada that I talk to, which is really a large population of not only our blue- collar, but minority Latinos, a – excuse me, Asian American Pacific Islanders, a vibrant Black community, Native Americans – they are listening to, what are the issues?
Who's bringing the solutions, right? Who has the solutions to address the affordable housing issue? That's Kamala Harris.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.
SENATOR CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO: Who has the issues to address how we lower health care costs and keep them low for all Americans? Kamala Harris. Who has the idea about how we protect the Affordable Care Act and not repeal it? That's Kamala Harris.
So those conversations matter to my voters in Nevada, and that's what's relevant at the end of the day and how we're going to make this happen.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And your state also will be key to watch. You do have abortion on the ballot.
Even though it's already legal in your state, there is talk about enshrining it in the Constitution, based on what happens Tuesday. We'll be following that and what happens with your party.
Senator, we have to leave it there for time. Thank you.
We'll be back with a lot more Face the Nation, so stay with us.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Be sure to tune into CBS News on Tuesday night, when we will be live from our election headquarters in New York City. I will be there, along with Norah O'Donnell, John Dickerson, Gayle King, and the rest of our political team for what is likely to be a very long night.
Our coverage starts at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS News 24/7 Streaming, 7:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS television network.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: We will be right back with a lot more Face the Nation.
Stay with us.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to FACE THE NATION, and our panel of election law and security experts.
David Becker is the executive director of the Center for Election, Innovation and Research. Chris Krebs is the former head of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency under the Trump administration. And Samantha Vinograd was most recently a counterterrorism official at the Department of Homeland Security under the Biden administration.
Good morning to you all.
Setting the table for a consequential week.
Chris, I want to start with you.
We're in that 48-hour window that Microsoft warned was going to be rife with attempts to hack people's minds. We've seen at least four fake videos the FBI and U.S. intelligence have warned are meant to manipulate. Yesterday, the FBI said there were two out there that are fake. Before that we had disclosed that Russia was behind a Bucks County, Pennsylvania, fake video and one targeting voters in Georgia, falsely claiming that Haitian migrants were - were voting.
How do these tactics that Russia is using now compare to what you saw in 2020 and back in 2016?
CHRIS KREBS: Well, they've evolved their techniques from generating and launching content from, for instance, St. Petersburg. That's what we saw in 2016. You had the internet research agency operating out of an office building, almost like, you know, a normal business.
Over time, though, given the improvements in the intelligence community, cyber command, and our own awareness of the activities and what they're doing, they've started to push the boundaries out. And so they're actually generating content and then they're laundering it effectively through other platforms, like Telegram and even now what we're seeing is a significant amount of laundering through X.
And then U.S. citizens pick up this information and pick up these videos, and then they promote it on their own accounts and on their own social media platforms, like Facebook. So, they are moving it out. They're avoiding the techniques that U.S. law enforcement intelligence has deployed and developed. And so they're not as good though. So, a lot of these videos that we're seeing, they're actually quite amateurish. That's not to say they can't have better content coming forward, but really they're just kind of flooding the zone and trying to distract.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And confuse and sow - and sow distrust of our institutions.
Sam, U.S. intelligence has been briefing and disclosing. That's part of what they're doing to try to counteract this.
We also saw early on warnings about Iran and what they are doing. The assessment Iran favors Harris, Russia favors Trump.
What form of influence are we seeing?
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Well, Iran has two main goals in this election cycle. First, to denigrate President Trump. They have expressed present - excuse me, a preference for Vice president Harris based upon Trump's record in office and their perception of what Mr. Trump would do if elected. That's objective one.
Objective two is to sow discord. And they view undermining perception about thein integrity of our election as an effective tool. So, they are using influence operations to denigrate Mr. Trump and to sow discord using AI- generated content really focused in particular on, for example, allegations of voter fraud. We should expect Iran to continue increasingly sophisticated influence operations related to perceptions of a lack of election integrity. That will last well after polls close, Margaret. This is the most attenuated election security related threat environment we have likely seen in history.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Because it's not about just changing votes. It's about not trusting our democracy.
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Right.
MARGARET BRENNAN: David, 76 million Americans already voted. So, can we say those numbers show the adversaries are failing, or are the election workers you're speaking with really concerned about what's to come?
DAVID BECKER: Well, it's - it has increased our ability to be resilient against the disinformation. The more people who vote early, they're effectively inoculated themselves against disinformation that might be inclined to be intended to help them self-suppress their vote or confuse them about how to vote. So, the fact that we've had over 76 million vote already, and that's going to increase by several million more once all the mail ballots are in, once there's even early voting going on today, still in about 27 states and D.C. So, that's very good. That means the number of people that still need to vote on Election Day, when disinformation might be very focused on them, trying to get them confused with very little time for them to be resilient against that disinformation, that's going to affect fewer voters. That's a very good thing. And I think we're seeing, especially in states like Georgia and North Carolina, well over 4 million votes in each of those states has been cast. Millions of votes in many other - of the swing states. And so far, very few problems despite efforts to create problems perhaps from our adversaries overseas.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And you would point people to the secretaries of state themselves, their websites, for reliable information?
DAVID BECKER: Yes. Whenever you need information, go to your state election website. That's usually the secretary of state's website. Sometimes, in North Carolina, Wisconsin, there's an election commission or an election board. Go to your local election website if you know your country or locality where elections are taking place. And if you need help, go to vote.gov. That will navigate you there eventually. Go - just rely upon those sources solely for information.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Chris, when you were in government, we did see, back in 2018, disclosure by the general at the head of then Cyber Command and the National Security Agency say that - that the government at that time set up a small group to basically knock Russia offline, to physically stop them from some of these influence operations.
Can the U.S. undertake offensive operations like that now?
CHRIS KREBS: Absolutely. I do think though that the infrastructure that the adversaries or the Russians and the Iran have put into place may not be where it once was. It has moved. Keep in mind that earlier this year the Department of Justice took offline a disinformation group that we track as Doppelganger, they took their various websites offline. And they did it in a way that was timed so that they could not rebuild those websites and reestablish the engagement with those websites in time for the election. So, there have been steps taken to ensure that the bad guys can't execute their strategies.
And in the meantime, you have organizations, like SISA, that are doing more with more jurisdictions on election security than at any other point previously. So, they have a lot of confidence around the resilience of the system.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But what you said about using Americans to spread disinformation.
CHRIS KREBS: Yes.
MARGARET BRENNAN: People are becoming unwitting agents of a foreign adversary essentially by re-tweeting or reposting some of these fake videos.
CHRIS KREBS: We have seen that, right? So, there was another Department of Justice announcement that a media outlet, based out of Tennessee, was receiving funding from the Russians, from RT, a cutout (ph) -
MARGARET BRENNAN: Tenet Group.
CHRIS KREBS: Tenet Group.
Now, to David's earlier point, that is why it is so critically important that American voters, when they're looking for information about the election, they go to their relevant local or state official. They know what's going on. Go - if you're in Georgia, Brad Raffensperger and Gabe Sterling are probably running the tightest ship when it comes to elections in the country right now. They're incredibly effective. They're out there. They're putting information in the hands of the American people so they understand what's happening.
And so when Russian operations like the Haitian voters pops up, they were on it immediately and they knocked it down. That is hugely effective in maintaining trust of the process.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sam, we have seen concerns about physical security, though, as well at voting locations. The Democratic governor of Washington state has activated the National Guard, put them on stand-by, citing general and specific information and concerns about violence and unrest. You did have that drop box in Vancouver that damaged hundreds of ballots. There was an incendiary device there. Are there specific plots the federal government knows of at this time?
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Well, it is a generally heightened threat environment, both in terms of complexity and the length of time that terrorism related threats, criminal threats and influence operations by nation states will last related to the election. It is just prudent planning, Margaret, in this threat environment for officials at all levels of government, federal, state and local, to engage in detailed operational planning. State and local officials are in the lead for the security in their jurisdictions.
Now, in my experience, particularly post January 6th, those operational plans must include a full sense of all available law enforcement resources. National Guard is the last resort. You have local resources, state resources and then, as necessary, National Guard, as well as a clear sense of who to call when so that there aren't communication failures.
Federal officials have invested a lot of money and time in doing exercises, hundreds them with state and local officials, sharing intelligence and information, and trying to share best practices. But at the end of the day, the state and local officials are in the lead and should have clear operational plans for a range of scenarios that may arise, in particular large scale security incidents that may arise with little or no warning. We learned lessons from January 6th. And from my conversations with former colleagues, that operational planning has been underway for years, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: David, I want to quickly get you to respond to what Senator Rubio was raising during our interview. He was talking about the charges brought by the secretary - or I mentioned the charged brought by the secretary of state against the individual he highlighted had cast a vote despite not being a citizen.
DAVID BECKER: Right.
MARGARET BRENNAN: How is it that someone who's not a citizen could register and cast a ballot? How did that even happen?
DAVID BECKER: Well, we have several protections in place to make sure it's very, very unlikely this is going to happen. We've seen places like Ohio, which has documented only six cases of non-citizen voting over a decade, dating back to 2014. We have places like Georgia, that has documented nine cases of non-citizen voting since 2008. So, it does happen, but it's extremely rare. And I'm sure Michigan is going to go through the process of evaluating exactly what went wrong in this one particular instance.
But it's also important to note, this is one case. It was very swiftly dealt with. This individual is going to lose his administration at the University of Michigan. He's going to be prosecuted. He might go to jail. And he's almost certainly to be deported.
This is a cautionary tale. It's one of the reasons we know that non-citizen voting is extremely rare. It's not zero, but it's very close to zero because the potential benefit to the person who perpetrates that crime, one vote in an election with 160 million ballots is far outweighed by the potential risk that they're facing of deportation and other jail time, et cetera.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Thank you for that.
I wanted you to explain the process, because I think explaining how our courts work -
DAVID BECKER: Right.
MARGARET BRENNAN: How the systems are set up to deal with these things is important.
One of the things disclosed in the U.S. intelligence report put out by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence was that Russia's amplifying these claims of non-citizen voting.
DAVID BECKER: Right.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So, that's what happens.
DAVID BECKER: Right. That's what happens. And there are plenty of protections in place to make sure that this is extremely rare. As close to zero as it can be.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Thank you. Thanks for your perspective. I know we'll keep you on speed dial throughout the week.
We'll be right back.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: To dissect some of the new economic indicators we've been seeing, we're joined by Mohamed El-Erian. He is the chief economic adviser at Allianz.
Welcome back to the program.
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: (Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz): Thanks for having me.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You know, we saw on Friday this jobs report that indicated job creation stalled a bit in October. There were some complicating factors, like hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. But what's your perspective on what this indicates for the next president of the United States?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: So, most of the report, as you pointed out, was distorted in a really important manner by the strikes by the hurricanes. The bottom line, Margaret, is we have an economy that has been growing robustly. Inflation is coming down. And the main challenge for the next administration is not just to maintain what is called economic exceptionalism, because we're outperforming all other advanced economies, but also to continue to reposition it for the engines of tomorrow's prosperity. And that's absolutely critical.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, we know the Federal Reserve is meeting later this week, may move on interest rates again since inflation is around or getting close to that 2 percent target. But for average people, they see housing prices are high, they see grocery prices are still high. Where's the scenario where those prices actually come down?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: Yes, and that's what everybody's expecting, but it's not going to happen.
Look, the good news is interest rates will continue to come down. The good news is inflation, which is the rate of increase of the cost of living will come down. But it's very hard to bring down prices. And that's one political problem is, when you tell people inflation is coming down, in their head they think prices are coming down, not the rate of increase of prices. So, it's a misunderstanding, unfortunately. But you've to be careful what you wish for, because if prices come down significantly, we are then in something much worse economically.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And that misunderstanding being used quite a lot on the campaign trail, Mohamed, as you know.
I know the stock market is not an indicator of what's happening with the economy, but it is forward-looking. This week what should we be expecting as a reaction to the outcome of this election?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: So, believe it or not, a lot of investors are just on the sideline. They see so many possibilities, be it for the presidential race, be it for Congress, or even the extent to which what is promised by presidential candidates will become policy. There stands to be a big gap between the two. So, quite a few investors have said, you know what, there's way too much uncertainty. I'm just standing on the sideline and waiting to see what emerges.
MARGARET BRENNAN: A gap between what's promised and what's delivered is a very diplomatic way of putting campaigning there, Mohamed. But neither candidate is even making a gesture towards reducing the debt burden in this country. And in terms of what's being promised, the plans that the vice president has put forward is estimated by this Committee for a Responsible Budget to increase the federal debt by nearly $4 trillion through 2035. Donald Trump's plans would increase it by nearly $8 trillion.
Congress, as you suggested there, they can put the brakes on anything here. But does this continued promise of spending and no promise of reducing it concern you?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: It does. It does in a big way.
Look, it was unthinkable that we would have almost 30 months of unemployment at 4 percent or below and we'd run fiscal deficit of six to eight percent. Remember, John Kennedy said, when the sun is shining you fix the roof. Instead, the sun has been shining on our economy and we've created more roofs. Our debt to GDP is 120 percent of - our debt is 120 percent of GDP.
Look, both candidates, whether they like it or not, are going to have to find a way to moderate deficits and debt and critically, Margaret, to create operational flexibility in the budget. The budget is becoming more and more rigid, which means that it's harder to respond to unanticipated shocks.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Unanticipated shocks.
In terms of one of the things that we have heard from the Trump campaign quite a lot is this pledge to use tariffs to create income for the government somehow. That's how Donald Trump suggests using them.
Do you view tariffs as a regressive tax that will hurt poor people by raising prices for them, or do you view them as somehow, you know, a rising tide that floats all boats?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: So, tariffs are a dangerous tool. They have limited use, but if they are overused, they become counterproductive. It is - it is not a good idea to promise the use of tariffs to deliver all sorts of things. Be it a lower deficit, be it protecting domestic producers, be it putting pressure, leveraging influence on other countries. Tariffs have a role to play, but not to the extent - and similar for the other side. Industrial policy and regulation, they both have a role to play.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right.
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: But be careful of overreach.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. Fair point.
Mohamed El-Erian, thank you very much for your analysis. The economy consistently the number one issue for American voters in this election.
We'll be back in a moment.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: Joining us now for a preview of what we'll all be looking for on Tuesday is our executive director of elections and surveys, Anthony Salvanto.
Anthony, this is neck-and-neck. You've been telling us that for weeks now. What is it that the campaigns are focusing on and what we should be looking for?
ANTHONY SALVANTO: Hey there, Margaret. So, start with this. Here is the map. The states in white are all those razor-tight battleground states. But let's get beyond the margin of error for a second and look at some of the political possibilities. And we can show you that in our polling models.
Start with this, what I think is one of the key dynamics in this race. There are voters who say they did not vote in 2020 and many of them, in fact about four in ten, say that they definitely will this time. Among them, especially the men among them, are for Donald Trump. And the Trump campaign is trying to turn them out.
So, we wondered, what happens if he does? And I'll show you. On this map we're going to run that scenario through our CBS models. And if he does turn out a lot of those non-voters, those men, they boost him, he would do well across the sun belt, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and flip Pennsylvania, and that would be enough to put him over the top and give him the win. That's a hypothetical, but it shows you how one of those campaign dynamics could play out.
Now, on the other side, there's another important dynamic, and that is the gender gap. We've talked about it a lot. And I'll show you a slide from one of our recent polls that illustrate that. So many more women voting for Kamala Harris.
Well, you've seen the Harris campaign out there trying not only to get women turnout, but also some crossover from Republicans, and in particular Republican women. So, we said, what happens if she can get those Republican numbers to match closer to what Joe Biden got in 2020, driven in large part by women and Republican women. If I put that scenario into the map here, our models show that she would hold the blue wall states across the upper Midwest, keep Georgia in her column, even flip North Carolina, and that would give her an Electoral College victory.
All of this, again, hypothetical. But it puts it in political terms, some of the dynamics that could play out, and we'll be watching, on election night, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And you'll be watching in real time as the data comes in to the desk.
What is it that we should be tracking throughout the night?
ANTHONY SALVANTO: So, we're going to show you everything as it comes in. And the first thing I'm going to show you is where the votes are, because sometimes, and I'll pull up the 2020 map here in Georgia just as an example, you're going to see red areas, Republican, you're going to see blue areas, Democratic. But I'm always going to show, there are more people in some of these place than others. If I take this map and I rotate it, you'll - what you'll see in the example of Georgia is, the higher bars reflect more votes, and there's more voters in Atlanta and metro Atlanta. And Democrats need to do well in places like that. Really get a lot of turnout there. Whereas across rural areas, you see it's more flat on the map here. Not as many votes but Republicans very consistently kind of add to their margins there. That's one way we're going to show you the state in full.
The other thing I'm going to watch is patterns, shifts from the last election to this one. Again, as an example, if I were to show you the shift that happened from 2016 to 2020, in Georgia, Democrats, Joe Biden at the time, got a lot of those counties around metro Atlanta shifting blue, those rural areas shifted red, Republicans. We'll see if something like that happens again. So it's where the votes come from, how they shift and the last thing, very quickly, Margaret, I'll remind everybody is, patience. If I were to take that same Georgia timeline and show you what it looked like at say 9:00 p.m., just after poll closed, a couple hours, you see so much uncounted votes still in Georgia, Metro Atlanta hadn't counted yet, et cetera. If this pattern comes out again on election night, we'll want to say, hold on, let's wait for all the votes to get counted before we know the winner.
Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Patience is a virtue.
Anthony, thank you.
We'll be right back.
(ANNOUNCEMENTS)
MARGARET BRENNAN: That's it for us today. Thank you all for watching. Until next week. For FACE THE NATION, I'm Margaret Brennan.
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