Election 2010 Critical Contests: Dem Odds Improve in Senate, Diminish in House
With still a month to go (and the most important one of all, at that) in the race to control the House, the electoral winds are still at the backs of Republicans. This week's Critical Contest ratings from the CBS News Elections team show some more movement in the GOP's favor, and the bulk of House seats at risk of turnover continue to belong to Democrats (a whopping 77 of 85).
Moreover, more of these now display some edging toward the Republicans' direction. Plenty of tossups still remain, though - more than enough to say that House control still looks very much in play for November.
Of the 77 Democratic-controlled House seats that remain at risk of turnover, 18 of those Democratic-held seats this week show increased odds of becoming GOP pickups -- they move a rating of from tossup to Edge: Republican. That brings the total number of Democratic seats where Republicans show a better-than-even chance of pickups to 24, up from 6 last week.
Democrats, meanwhile, have gained an edge to hold onto four of their own seats at risk, which move from tossup to Edge: Democratic, thus showing increased odds of Democrats retaining these seats. But two Democratic held seats have gone the opposite way, from Dem-Edge-to-retain last week, back to tossup now. That brings to 13 the total number of Democratic-held seats the party shows a good chance of retaining.
Republicans will need to pick up 39 seats to take control of the House after the elections.
Check Out the Updated Map Here
The Senate
On the Senate side, it's no secret that Republicans face a harder road to takeover. They need to win 10 seats to take control and don't have a lot of wiggle room among the states in play to do it - at least not as of now.
Republicans' hopes do get a boost as the race in West Virginia heats up and sees an infusion of spending - and moves to a tossup rating. Democrats had hoped to have an easier time hanging on to Robert Byrd's former seat, running a popular governor (Joe Manchin), but they'll have a fight on their hands now, and are facing a conservative-leaning electorate. Republicans also appear to be eyeing a more likely gain in Indiana.
But also this week, a number of polls offer evidence that in two states Republicans are eyeing - usually-blue California and Washington - Democratic incumbents have built at least an edge in their races so far. They shift out of the tossup column for the moment, moving along with Delaware's Chris Coons who is shown to be building a substantial lead in the polls, which makes him look more likely to hold the seat... again, at least for now.
Those developments, all involving seats where Democrats are trying to hang on, make the GOP's path to outright control steeper - even though gains for them could still be substantial.
It's important to emphasize that there's still a month to go and for many voters, it's just approaching time to tune in. Campaigns will be making their big pushes now - on the air, with get-out-the-vote efforts (especially for early voting, beginning in many places) and going hard after swing voters, too.
A lot can happen, and things can change -- which is also what makes it fun to watch....
CBSNews.com Special Report: Election 2010
