Ed Rollins Has The Answers
Political Strategist Ed Rollins has the answers to your questions. Rollins served in the administrations of Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Reagan. Veteran CBS News White House Correspondent Bill Plante brings a top political expert into the Smoke-Filled Room each week to answer your questions.
Plante: What advice would you give to George W. in running his campaign?
Rollins: I think the most important advice I could give him is that it's a very long campaign ahead and don't use up all your ammunition at this point in time when no one's paying a whole lot of attention. You've almost got to split the campaign into three phases; there's 35 weeks left. The next ten weeks he needs to get out and make himself more popular among Republicans and make people like him better and try and draw back some of those McCain defectors. Through the summer, he can start articulating what it is he wants to do as President and use his convention, obviously as that forum. Then in the fall he can go full bore after Gore. The key thing here is draw a contrast. Don't make this a referendum on Bill Clinton, make this a referendum on Al Gore and the kind of president Al Gore would be. Or make it a campaign about how Bush himself can lead the country more effectively.
Plante: What effect, if any, will the "Clinton effect" play in the race? Will he help or hurt Al Gore?
Rollins: I think he helps. Any damage that has been done to Clinton has not rubbed off on Gore. He's still a president with a better than 60 percent approval ratings. He's still the most significant Democrat. There's no erosion of Democrat support. He could be nominated for a third term and still be a credible candidate. The Clinton factor is his legacy is Al Gore, so he's going to do everything possible; both raising money and turning out the vote and reinforcing the Gore message. I don't see him as a liability. I'm sure the Bush people will try and make him a liability, but it's not worked over the last seven or eight years. A better strategy is to draw differences with Al Gore and what kind of president Al Gore would be as opposed to running against Clinton-Gore.
Plante: How would you describe the personalities of both Ronald Reagan and George Bush?
Rollins: Ronald Reagan was probably the most secure man I ever met in politics. He knew what he believed in and acted on those beliefs. Unlike a lot of people who become President, he didn't spend his entire life wanting to be President, and I think when he got there he felt he had a very sacred duty to the American public to make the country a better place than it had been prior to his election. I think he certainly made the American people very proud of their country again. I think to a certain extent he made the Presidency work again. We had four or five presidencies that sort of failed beforhim, and I think he clearly made it work.
I think Bush was a guy who obviously always wanted to be in higher office and I think he felt he was sort of destined to be President. He'd held a variety of positions in government prior to that. I think, bottom line, he's a very nice man who's built a career on friendships. I don't think he had a vision of where he wanted to take the country. In a sense, he lost touch with ordinary people's lives and I think that's what cost him his reelection in 1992.
Plante: How about George W.'s personality?
Rollins: I think he's a tough guy who for a long time probably had a chip on his shoulder and I think to a certain extent he's becoming a little more comfortable with himself. You know it's awfully hard to be the oldest son of a Vice President and President, and I think he came to politics late. I don't think he spent his life wanting to be a politician, but now that he's there, I think he's taken some of the harder edges off. We'll see what kind of candidate he is and what kind of personality he has in the course of the next 35 weeks.
Plante: Brad Hayes would like to know if you can give us an update on President Reagan's health? How's he doing?
Rollins: I don't know any more than what I've read and everything I've heard from people who are still close to Mrs. Reagan is, you know, he's not doing well. He obviously will never, never come back again and it's a deteriorating condition, where he doesn't know anyone around him. You know he was a very strong man, physically, so my sense is that, even though his mind may have drifted off, his body is still pushing forward. I have no idea how long he'll have here, but I don't think he'll ever be able to function again effectively.
Plante: William Anderson and others have asked, "What impact will Maria Hsia's multiple convictions have on Al Gore's campaign?"
Rollins: To date, it hasn't had any impact. It had very little press play. It may make Gore be a little more careful in how he raises money in the future. And he certainly bounced around on the issue on his explanations. But I think to a certain extent, Bush lost the opportunity to make it a bigger issue by his own using of soft money in his primary campaign against McCain. To the public, it all gets sort of crowded together when there's not a clear distinction; they don't know what's illegal money or improper money or any of the rest of it at this point in time. They think that all politicians do things they probably shouldn't. If Bush had basically not allowed the independent expenditures, or at least asked for them to be stopped, he'd be in a better position to criticize Gore and Clinton for their fund raising activity.
Plante: What do you think are the three main issues of this campaign? Justin B. wants to know.
Rollins: I'm not sure there will be issues in the sense of ducation or law and order or crime. Abortion may play a significant role, particularly in states like California.
I think it's really going to be about character and integrity. Whichever candidate is perceived as having a stronger character and better integrity or whoever's perceived as a stronger leader, will have a big effect. And ultimately, because there's been so much criticism of Bush early on, on not being very bright, if he can't come back and prove that he's every bit as intelligent as, or have as much knowledge in foreign affairs as Gore, that may have some effect. But it's a long ways to go, and it's going to be more of what people perceive as character traits as opposed to specific issues.
Plante: How do you think the economy will affect the presidential race?
Rollins: I don't think it's going to have much effect. If the economy stays as it is now, which is pretty strong, Gore doesn't get blamed for anything, and all the credit is already been given to Clinton. My sense is that it doesn't become an overriding issue, as it did when Bush's father ran in 1992. I think it's pretty irrelevant. If for some reason there's a dip in the economy between now and November, which nobody is predicting, or the stock market continues to sort of be all over the place, and people feel a little uncertain, then they may be willing to make a change and that will benefit Bush.
Plante: You were one of the architects of the "Reagan Democrat" strategy. Does that have any relevance to this election? How does either candidate reach out beyond his party's base?
Rollins: The critical thing to understand is that many "Reagan Democrats" became Republicans in the course of the 80's. They switched parties - there was a tremendous party-switching effort. It used to be that we would hold 95 percent of the Republicans and we could go after Democrats. We now have somewhat of an erosion of the Republican base. Bush lost about 29 percent in 1992 and Dole lost 20 percent in 1996. I think some of those may have been the old Reagan Democrats who've switched parties. It becomes very important for us to reach out to independents. About a third of the electorate today is truly an independent voter and that's where the margin is. I think those who are still Democrats are pretty hardcore democrats and the same way relative to Republicans. Most of them are pretty hardcore, so you have to hold that 30 to 35 percent base that each party holds and be more interested in getting the majority of the independents.
Plante: What's next for John McCain and Bill Bradley?
Rollins: I don't think there's anything left for Bradley. He may very well get a cabinet post; I don't think it’s particularly likely, but I don't see him having a political future. There's certainly no Bradley movement after this campaign.
McCain's a totally different animal. Depending on what he does here, he's shon he can go out and win states. He certainly has a great appeal to moderate Republicans and independents. He could have been a very credible candidate if he'd been the nominee. He still may be considered to be a vice presidential candidate. If Bush won, he could be in a Cabinet post. And if Bush lost, he could be a viable candidate four years from now. My sense is, he's got lots of options, and if nothing more, he goes back to the Senate as an enhanced personality and a more significant figure than he was six months ago and plays a more significant leadership role there.
Plante: “What factor will money play in the campaign?” asks Marguerite C.
Rollins: I think both sides will have gigantic sums of money. They both get 50 plus million dollars from the federal government in the fall. Even though Bush didn't take matching funds in the primaries he still gets the check as the nominee. I expect soft money to be used extensively by both sides. Bush is probably the most effective Republican fundraiser ever. And the Clinton-Gore team has raised more money than anyone in history for the Presidency and I would expect the Gore people to do exactly the same things. I think both sides will have a saturation of money and I don't think there'll be any advantage/disadvantage there.
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About Bill Plante