Economy's direction key for Obama in '12: expert
President Obama's visit to a Chrysler plant in Toledo, Ohio Friday may be overshadowed by disappointing new economic numbers . The Labor Department says the unemployment rate rose last month to 9.1 percent, as employers added just 54,000 jobs.
CBS News Chief White House Correspondent Chip Reid reported the jopless numbers are even worse than most economists - even pessimistic ones - were expecting.
Reid reported it's bad news, not only for the economy, but for Mr. Obama's re-election campaign.
With the possibility that the economic is hitting the brakes, Reid said the president would put his foot on the gas Friday by trying to shift focus when he visits the auto plant to the progress the economy has made since he's been in office.
Reid said Mr. Obama will repeat arguments he's made before, such as when he said in one speech, "There were a lot of people who were ready to write off the auto industry, thought we should walk away. Some still think that. But you know what? That's not how you build a better future."
He'll take credit for turning around Chrysler and GM with government bailouts, and for bringing the economy back from the brink of depression, Reid said.
But with unemployment still stubbornly high and Republicans blocking the president's plans to try to stimulate growth with new investments, the economy looms as an increasingly dark cloud over his re-election prospects.
Political analyst Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia, told CBS News, "There are several candidates who could easily beat Obama if the economy is bad enough."
No president since Franklin Roosevelt has won re-election when the unemployment rate was higher than 7.2 percent, Reid pointed out.
But perhaps the best example of the connection between the economy and re-election is the elder president Bush, Reid said. In March 1991, after the first Gulf War, his approval rating was sky-high -- 88 percent. Just 16 months later, that rating had plummeted to 31 percent, after the unemployment soared to 7.5 percent. He lost re-election to Bill Clinton, whose campaign was based around, "It's the economy, stupid."
In 1984, Ronald Reagan won re-election even though unemployment was over seven percent. The difference under Reagan: The economy was improving, and he called those times "Morning in America."
Sabato said, "If the economy is going downhill, the incumbent president almost always loses. If the economy is improving, the incumbent president almost always wins."
Most economists believe the unemployment rate will still be painfully high on Election Day 2012. Reid said the key for President Obama will be whether it's moving in the right direction.