Eastern Floods, Western Drought

Spring flooding is a threat in parts of the South and East while the drought seems likely to continue in the West, federal forecasters said Thursday.

The El Nino phenomenon helped produce extra snow and rainfall to ease the drought in the East during winter, but was not strong enough to end the multiyear Western water shortage.

"Depending on where you live or play, you're either thankful for the drought-busting Eastern rains and snow, or disappointed by the lack of Western snow pack," said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA forecasters have said that El Nino, an unusual warming of the Pacific that can affect weather worldwide, is easing and should end in the coming months.

"The winter weather pattern has given us the tale of two regions. With snow pack levels below normal, the multiyear drought in the West will linger through spring. The East reversed its fortunes going from widespread drought to many areas that are much wetter than normal. In the Northeast, snow melt and river ice will increase the chances of flooding for more than a month," Lautenbacher said.

For the contiguous United States, on average the past winter was not unusual, as it was the 31st warmest and 58th driest out of the last 109 years. But temperatures averaged well above the long-term average from the West Coast into the Upper Midwest, and Alaska had its second-warmest year on record. In contrast, 27 states in the eastern half of the United States had significantly cooler than average winter temperatures.

The spring outlook — April through June — calls for above-normal temperatures in the western third of the nation and in Alaska. Southern Texas may be a bit cooler than normal. The chances for above-normal rainfall are increased in the far Northwest, parts of the Southwest and southern Texas.

"The wet fall and winter from eastern Texas to the Ohio Valley and eastward to the Atlantic has already resulted in some flooding this year, and we expect flooding to remain a threat across the area," said John Jones, deputy assistant administrator of NOAA's National Weather Service.

Cold and heavy snows in the Northeast set the stage for possible spring flooding. Thick ice on rivers in eastern New York and northern New England could lead to ice jam flooding. If heavy rains combine with rapid snow melt, serious flooding could be possible.

Since the Midwest and northern Plains received much less snow than normal, the current focus is on the possibility of drought rather than normal spring snow melt flooding. However, NOAA warns spring rains on frozen soils could still lead to flash flooding.

"We urge people not to become complacent. Even during droughts, flooding — deadly flooding — is possible," said Jones.